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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2017 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1322.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Washington 55-19-8=118pts, Toronto 40-27-15=95pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 13 April: Toronto loses at Washington, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 15 April: Toronto wins at Washington, 4-goals-3 (2OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 17 April: Washington loses at Toronto, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 19 April: Washington wins at Toronto, 5-goals-4
Game 5 on Friday, 21 April: Toronto loses at Washington, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Sunday, 23 April: Washington wins at Toronto, 2-goals-1 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Washington Capitals visited and bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-goals-1 in overtime to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 victory. With the series 1322 win, the Washington Capitals improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 14-24 overall and 11-12 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1322 loss, the Toronto Maple Leafs see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 35-40 overall and 8-7 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Washington Capitals in series 1322 was WLLWWW: Series 1322 thus becomes the 12th NHL Preliminary-round series, the 24th NHL series (all rounds), and the 37th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Washington Capitals, which won series 1322 with a WLLWWW win order, was the first team to win an NHL Preliminary round series with a WLLWWW win order (series 554, in the 1990 NHL Preliminary round). Washington trailed the Maple Leafs in Toronto by a goal as late as 12:50 into the third period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2016, inclusive, road teams down one goal as late as 12:50 into the third period had a game record of only 72-592 (.108).

After Game 5: The Washington Capitals hosted and outscored the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-goals-1 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 8-6 and a Game 6 record of 6-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 6-15 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 6 record of 5-16. After five games of series 1322, Washington has posted a WLLWW @ HHVVH win/site order against Toronto. The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to post a win/site order of WLLWW @ HHVVH through five games of a best-of-7 playoff series but lose was the New Jersey Devils in series 773, to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1999 NHL Preliminary round. The Toronto Maple Leafs themselves posted a win/site order of WLLWW @ HHVVH through five games of series 639, and lost that 1993 NHL Semifinals series to the Los Angeles Kings. So it is that the 2017 Toronto Maple Leafs find a favorable precedent in the team that defeated their 1993 incarnation.

After Game 4: The Washington Capitals visited and defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-goals-4 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 4-9 and a Game 5 record of 5-8, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 20-15 and a Game 5 record of 19-16.

After Game 3: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and defeated the Washington Capitals 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 18-8 and a Game 4 record of 9-17 with an active seven-Game 4 losing streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 6-8 and a Game 4 record of 7-7. The Maple Leafs trailed Washington in Toronto by two goals as late as 15:12 into the second period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2016, inclusive, home teams such as Toronto in series 1322 Game 3 down two goals as late as 15:12 into the second period had a game record of only 36-317 (.102).

After Game 2: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and outscored the Washington Capitals 4-goals-3 in double overtime to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 9-14 and a Game 3 record of 10-13, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-20 and a Game 3 record of 14-22. Series 1322 Game 2 is the first multiple-overtime game of the 2017 NHL playoff season, and the first in best-of-7 NHL playoff games since series 1298 Game 4 (in which the Nashville Predators hosted and outlasted the San Jose Sharks 4-goals-3 with the winning tally 11:12 into the third overtime period in their 2016 NHL Quarterfinals series).

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals hosted and bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-goals-2 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1322 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 6-16 and a Game 2 record of 8-14. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-26 and a Game 2 record of 22-20.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NHL regular season, the Washington Capitals finished 23 points ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. From 1939 through the 2016 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 23 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 8-3 (.727) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1322 is the 38th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Washington Capitals, and the 75th for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have an all-rounds series record of 13-24, a Preliminary-round series record of 10-12, and a Game 1 record of 22-15, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have an all-rounds series record of 35-39, a Preliminary-round series record of 8-6, and a Game 1 record of 32-42. Series 1322 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs.