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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2017 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1348.
San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Golden State 67-15, San Antonio 61-21
Game 1 on Sunday, 14 May: San Antonio loses at Golden State, 113-pts-111
Game 2 on Tuesday, 16 May: San Antonio loses at Golden State, 136-pts-100
Game 3 on Saturday, 20 May: Golden State wins at San Antonio, 120-pts-108
Game 4 on Monday, 22 May: Golden State at San Antonio, 9:00pmEDT
Game 5* on Wednesday, 24 May: San Antonio at Golden State, 9:00pmEDT
Game 6* on Friday, 26 May: Golden State at San Antonio, 9:00pmEDT
Game 7* on Sunday, 28 May: San Antonio at Golden State, 9:00pmEDT
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-nil irrespective of site order (Golden State) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 343-5 (.986)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 83-1 (.988)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 125-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 29-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 221-127 (.635)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 49-35 (.583)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 77-48 (.616)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 16-13 (.552)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1343 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil @ HHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-nil with site order HHV (Golden State) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 256-4 (.985)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 52-1 (.981)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 103-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 18-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 162-98 (.623)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 30-23 (.566)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 62-41 (.602)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 10-8 (.556)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1343 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The Golden State Warriors visited and topped the San Antonio Spurs 120-pts-108 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1348 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 4 record of 4-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 4 record of 0-3. The Golden State Warriors with their series 1348 Game 3 win become the first NBA/NHL team to win 11 consecutive games without a loss from the beginning of a playoff season comprising four rounds of best-of-7 series (breaking, ironically, the record first set by the San Antonio Spurs in 2012). San Antonio becomes the 349th MLB/NBA/NHL team to attempt to surmount a three-games-nil deficit for a 4-games-3 series victory.

After Game 2: The Golden State Warriors hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 136-pts-100 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1348 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 7-1 and a Game 3 record of 5-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 1-8 and a Game 3 record of 6-3. The sole San Antonio series win in the wake of a 2-games-nil deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series occurred in series 1049, in which they defeated the old New Orleans Hornets in seven games in their 2008 NBA Quarterfinals series. The sole Golden State series loss in the wake of a 2-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series occurred in series 1316, in which they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in seven games in their 2016 NBA Finals series. The 36-point victory margin for the Golden State Warriors in series 1348 Game 2 is the largest victory margin in an NBA playoff game since series 1346 Game 6, in which the San Antonio Spurs (ironically) visited and defeated the Houston Rockets 114-pts-75 in their just-concluded 2017 NBA Quarterfinals series.

After Game 1: The Golden State Warriors hosted and vanquished the San Antonio Spurs 113-pts-111 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1348 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 13-4 and a Game 2 record of 8-9 with a five-Game 2 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 7-15 and a Game 2 record of 13-9. Golden State trailed visiting San Antonio by 20 points at halftime. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams down twenty points at halftime had a game record of 1-6 (.143).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors finished six games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs. From 1947 through the 2017 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 22-4 (.846) with an active seven-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1348 is the 28th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Golden State Warriors, and the 60th for the San Antonio Spurs. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have an all-rounds series record of 16-11, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-2, and a Game 1 record of 17-10, while the San Antonio Spurs have an all-rounds series record of 37-22, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-7, and a Game 1 record of 37-22. Series 1348 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio defeated Golden State in their only previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting, in series 1214 (in the 2013 NBA Quarterfinals).