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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2017 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1341.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 55-27, Oklahoma City 47-35
Game 1 on Sunday, 16 April: Oklahoma City loses at Houston, 118-pts-87
Game 2 on Wednesday, 19 April: Oklahoma City loses at Houston, 115-pts-111
Game 3 on Friday, 21 April: Houston loses at Oklahoma City, 115-pts-113
Game 4 on Sunday, 23 April: Houston wins at Oklahoma City, 113-pts-109
Game 5 on Tuesday, 25 April: Oklahoma City at Houston
Game 6* on Thursday, 27 April: Houston at Oklahoma City
Game 7* on Saturday, 29 April: Oklahoma City at Houston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-1 irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 556-52 (.914)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 140-21 (.870)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 223-11 (.953)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 52-2 (.963)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 341-267 (.561)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 80-81 (.497)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 136-98 (.581)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 30-24 (.556)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-1 with site order HHVV (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 351-24 (.936)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 92-10 (.902)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 145-2 (.986)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 35-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 248-127 (.661)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 65-37 (.637)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 108-39 (.735)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 28-7 (.800)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWLW irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 172-10 (.945)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 46-4 (.920)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 81-2 (.976)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 21-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 116-66 (.637)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 31-19 (.620)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 56-27 (.675)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 16-5 (.762)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLW @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWLW with site order HHVV (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 139-6 (.959)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 36-2 (.947)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 70-2 (.972)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 18-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 99-46 (.683)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 27-11 (.711)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 51-21 (.708)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 15-3 (.833)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Houston Rockets visited and outscored the Oklahoma City Thunder 113-pts-109 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1341 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 6-0 and a Game 5 record of 4-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 5 record of 0-3.

After Game 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the Houston Rockets 115-pts-113 to reduce the Houston Rockets best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1341 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 9-2 and a Game 4 record of 5-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 4 record of 6-3.

After Game 2: The Houston Rockets hosted and bested the Oklahoma City Thunder 115-pts-111 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1341 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 5-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 3 record of 3-0. Houston trailed by nine points after the first quarter of series 1341 Game 2. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams trailing by nine points after one quarter had a game record of only 19-31 (.380).

After Game 1: The Houston Rockets hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-pts-87 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1341 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 10-3 and a Game 2 record of 7-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 4-3 and a Game 2 record of 4-3.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the Houston Rockets finished eight games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 23-6 (.793) with an active four-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1341 is the 34th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Houston Rockets, and the 17th for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Houston Rockets have an all-rounds series record of 15-18, a Preliminary-round series record of 2-7, and a Game 1 record of 13-20, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have an all-rounds series record of 10-6, a Preliminary-round series record of 5-1 with an active five-series winning streak, and a Game 1 record of 9-7.