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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2017 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1340.
Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 61-21, Memphis 43-39
Game 1 on Saturday, 15 April: Memphis loses at San Antonio, 111-pts-82
Game 2 on Monday, 17 April: Memphis loses at San Antonio, 96-pts-82
Game 3 on Thursday, 20 April: San Antonio loses at Memphis, 105-pts-94
Game 4 on Saturday, 22 April: San Antonio loses at Memphis, 110-pts-108 (OT)
Game 5 on Tuesday, 25 April: Memphis at San Antonio
Game 6 on Thursday, 27 April: San Antonio at Memphis
Game 7* on Saturday, 29 April: Memphis at San Antonio
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-159 (.662)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 85-47 (.644)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 135-37 (.785)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 28-7 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 299-171 (.636)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 84-48 (.636)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 125-47 (.727)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 25-10 (.714)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLL irrespective of site order (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 126-64 (.663)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 30-20 (.600)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 60-16 (.789)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 11-5 (.688)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 117-73 (.616)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 28-22 (.560)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 54-22 (.711)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 10-6 (.625)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WWLL with site order HHVV (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 113-45 (.715)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 27-12 (.692)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 57-13 (.814)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 11-4 (.733)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 108-50 (.684)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 27-12 (.692)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 51-19 (.729)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 10-5 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Memphis Grizzlies hosted and bested the San Antonio Spurs 110-pts-108 in overtime to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1340 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 11-9 and a Game 5 record of 12-8, while the Memphis Grizzlies have a series record of 1-3 and a Game 5 record of 2-2.

After Game 3: The Memphis Grizzlies hosted and bested the San Antonio Spurs 105-pts-94 to reduce the San Antonio Spurs best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1340 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 19-6 and a Game 4 record of 11-14. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Memphis Grizzlies have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. The San Antonio Spurs have lost the last two best-of-7 NBA playoff series which they have led 2-games-1, losing in series 1275 to the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games in the 2015 NBA Preliminary round, and losing in series 1313 to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2016 NBA Quarterfinals.

After Game 2: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and topped the Memphis Grizzlies 96-pts-82 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1340 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 23-2 with an active five-series winning streak and a Game 3 record of 14-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Memphis Grizzlies have a series record of 1-5 and a Game 3 record of 1-5. The sole Memphis series win when down 2-games-nil occurred in series 1210, in which the Grizzlies captured Games 3-6 to defeat the Los Angeles Clippers in the 2013 NBA Preliminary round.

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and bested the Memphis Grizzlies 111-pts-82 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1340 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 29-7 and a Game 2 record of 25-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Memphis Grizzlies have a series record of 2-8 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 2 record of 4-6. The 29-point victory by San Antonio over Memphis in 2017 NBA Preliminary-round Game 1 is only slightly less than the 32-point victory by the Spurs over the Grizzlies in 2016 NBA Preliminary-round Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the San Antonio Spurs finished 18 games ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 18 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 6-0 (1.000) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1340 is the 58th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the San Antonio Spurs, and the 14th for the Memphis Grizzlies. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have an all-rounds series record of 35-22, a Preliminary-round series record of 11-3, and a Game 1 record of 36-21, while the Memphis Grizzlies have an all-rounds series record of 4-9, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-6, and a Game 1 record of 3-10.