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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2017 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1338.
Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Washington 49-33, Atlanta 43-39
Game 1 on Sunday, 16 April: Atlanta loses at Washington, 114-pts-107
Game 2 on Wednesday, 19 April: Atlanta loses at Washington, 109-pts-101
Game 3 on Saturday, 22 April: Washington loses at Atlanta, 116-pts-98
Game 4 on Monday, 24 April: Washington loses at Atlanta, 111-pts-101
Game 5 on Wednesday, 26 April: Atlanta at Washington
Game 6 on Friday, 28 April: Washington at Atlanta
Game 7* on Sunday, 30 April: Atlanta at Washington
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-159 (.662)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 85-47 (.644)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 135-37 (.785)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 28-7 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 299-171 (.636)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 84-48 (.636)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 125-47 (.727)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 25-10 (.714)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLL irrespective of site order (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 126-64 (.663)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 30-20 (.600)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 60-16 (.789)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 11-5 (.688)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 117-73 (.616)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 28-22 (.560)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 54-22 (.711)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 10-6 (.625)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WWLL with site order HHVV (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 113-45 (.715)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 27-12 (.692)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 57-13 (.814)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 11-4 (.733)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 108-50 (.684)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 27-12 (.692)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 51-19 (.729)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 10-5 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Atlanta Hawks hosted and defeated the Washington Wizards 111-pts-101 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1338 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 5 record of 1-2, while the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 6-7 with an active three-series winning streak and a Game 5 record of 7-6 with an active four-Game 5 winning streak. In the three previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which the Washington Wizards were tied 2-games-all after four games, the Wizards' Game 5 outcome determined the Wizards' Game 6 outcome and thus the Wizards' series outcome. The Atlanta Hawks trailed series 1338 Game 4 at home by seven points after the first quarter, but prevailed. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, home teams down seven points after the first quarter STILL had a game record of 33-34 (.493) - so goes the historical home-court advantage in best-of-7 NBA playoff series and games.

After Game 3: The Atlanta Hawks hosted and bested the Washington Wizards 116-pts-98 to drop the Washington Wizards best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1338 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 2-14 and a Game 4 record of 8-8.

After Game 2: The Washington Wizards hosted and defeated the Atlanta Hawks 109-pts-101 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1338 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 0-14 and a Game 3 record of 6-8.

After Game 1: The Washington Wizards hosted and vanquished the Atlanta Hawks 114-pts-107 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1338 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 2 record of 2-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 1-20 and a Game 2 record of 7-14.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the Washington Wizards finished six games ahead of the Atlanta Hawks. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-4 (.833) with an active five-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1338 is the tenth best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Washington Wizards, and the 32nd for the Atlanta Hawks. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Washington Wizards have an all-rounds series record of 3-6, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-3, and a Game 1 record of 4-5 witn an active four-Game 1 winning streak, while the Atlanta Hawks have an all-rounds series record of 8-23, a Preliminary-round series record of 5-4, and a Game 1 record of 10-21.