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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2017 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1337.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 51-31, Milwaukee 42-40
Game 1 on Saturday, 15 April: Milwaukee wins at Toronto, 97-pts-83
Game 2 on Tuesday, 18 April: Milwaukee loses at Toronto, 106-pts-100
Game 3 on Thursday, 20 April: Toronto loses at Milwaukee, 104-pts-77
Game 4 on Saturday, 22 April: Toronto wins at Milwaukee, 87-pts-76
Game 5 on Monday, 24 April: Milwaukee loses at Toronto, 118-pts-93
Game 6 on Thursday, 27 April: Toronto at Milwaukee
Game 7* on Saturday, 29 April: Milwaukee at Toronto
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 606-157 (.794)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 169-44 (.793)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 244-45 (.844)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 50-9 (.847)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 418-345 (.548)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 125-88 (.587)
Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 163-126 (.564)
Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 37-22 (.627)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-58 (.843)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 100-21 (.826)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 140-13 (.915)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 30-2 (.938)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 193-176 (.523)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 69-52 (.570)
Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 81-72 (.529)
Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 20-12 (.625)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWLWW irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 57-17 (.770)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 17-4 (.810)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 21-5 (.808)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 35-39 (.473)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 10-11 (.476)
Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 14-12 (.538)
Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW @ HHVVH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWLWW with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-4 (.889)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 11-1 (.917)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 13-2 (.867)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 17-19 (.472)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 7-5 (.583)
Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 7-8 (.467)
Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Toronto Raptors hosted and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 118-pts-93 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 6 record of 0-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 1-10 with an active three-series losing streak and a Game 6 record of 4-7. The sole Milwaukee Bucks best-of-7 NBA playoff series victory in the wake of a 3-games-2 deficit occurred in series 839, in which they won Game 6 on the road and Game 7 at home to win their 2001 NBA Quarterfinals series against the original Charlotte Hornets.

After Game 4: The Toronto Raptors visited and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 87-pts-76 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 5 record of 3-2, while the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 3-8 and a Game 5 record of 4-7.

After Game 3: The Milwaukee Bucks hosted and bested the Toronto Raptors 104-pts-77 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 4 record of 4-5 with an active four-Game 4 losing streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 4 record of 2-2.

After Game 2: The Toronto Raptors hosted and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 106-pts-100 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 3 record of 3-2, while the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 4-8 and a Game 3 record of 6-6. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series history, only one other team lost Game 1 by 14 points but won Game 2 by six (as Toronto has in series 1337): In series 1241, the Memphis Grizzlies did so against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2014 NBA Preliminary round, and lost the series in seven games.

After Game 1: The Milwaukee Bucks visited and defeated the Toronto Raptors 97-pts-83 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 8-2 with an active four-series winning streak and a Game 2 record of 7-3 with an active four-Game 2 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-5 and a Game 2 record of 4-3. With the series 1337 Game 1 win, Milwaukee ends its seven-Game 1 losing streak while extending the Toronto Game 1 losing streak to eight. Milwaukee trailed in Toronto by five points at halftime but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, road teams trailing by five points at halftime had a game record of only 28-116 (.194).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the Toronto Raptors finished nine games ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by nine regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 22-3 (.880) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1337 is the ninth best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Toronto Raptors, and the 33rd for the Milwaukee Bucks. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Toronto Raptors have an all-rounds series record of 2-6, a Preliminary-round series record of 1-4, and a Game 1 record of 1-7 with an active seven-Game 1 losing streak, while the Milwaukee Bucks have an all-rounds series record of 11-21 with an active seven-series losing streak, a Preliminary-round series record of 0-6, and a Game 1 record of 10-22 with an active seven-Game 1 losing streak.