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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2017 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1335.
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2016-17 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 53-29, Chicago 41-41
Game 1 on Sunday, 16 April: Chicago wins at Boston, 106-pts-102
Game 2 on Tuesday, 18 April: Chicago wins at Boston, 111-pts-97
Game 3 on Friday, 21 April: Boston wins at Chicago, 104-pts-87
Game 4 on Sunday, 23 April: Boston wins at Chicago, 104-pts-95
Game 5 on Wednesday, 26 April: Chicago at Boston
Game 6 on Friday, 28 April: Boston at Chicago
Game 7* on Sunday, 30 April: Chicago at Boston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-159 (.662)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 85-47 (.644)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 135-37 (.785)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 28-7 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 299-171 (.636)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 84-48 (.636)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 125-47 (.727)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 25-10 (.714)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied LLWW irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 64-126 (.337)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 20-30 (.400)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 16-60 (.211)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 5-11 (.313)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 73-117 (.384)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 22-28 (.440)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 22-54 (.289)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 6-10 (.375)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LLWW @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LLWW with site order HHVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 19-11 (.633)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 8-3 (.727)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 3-1 (.750)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 1-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 23-7 (.767)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 10-1 (.909)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 3-1 (.750)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 1-0 (1.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Boston Celtics visited and bested the Chicago Bulls 104-pts-95 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1335 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 29-12 and a Game 5 record of 29-12, while the Chicago Bulls have a series record of 9-11 and a Game 5 record of 10-10. Series 1335 thus becomes only the fifth best-of-7 NBA playoff series (and the first since 2005) to open with a WWLL @ VVHH win/site order.

After Game 3: The Boston Celtics visited and bested the Chicago Bulls 104-pts-87 to reduce the Chicago Bulls best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1335 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Bulls have a series record of 18-4 and a Game 4 record of 10-12. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 9-16 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 4 record of 16-9. Series 1335 thus becomes only the tenth best-of-7 NBA playoff series (and the first since 2014) to open with a WWL @ VVH win/site order. Series 1335 Game 3 ties series 211 Game 3 (in which the Los Angeles Lakers visited and defeated the old San Francisco Warriors 115-pts-98 in the 1969 NBA Quarterfinals, en route to a six-game series victory) for the largest Game 3 margin of victory by a road team which lost Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 NBA playoff series at home.

After Game 2: The Chicago Bulls visited and defeated the Boston Celtics 111-pts-97 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1335 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Chicago Bulls have a series record of 14-1 and a Game 3 record of 8-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 1-12 with an active eleven-series losing streak and a Game 3 record of 7-6. The sole series victory by the Boston Celtics upon trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil was series 215, over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1969 NBA Finals. The sole series loss by the Chicago Bulls upon leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil was series 942, to the Washington Wizards in the 2005 NBA Preliminary round. Series 1335 marks only the fourth time in best-of-7 NBA playoff history (and the first time since 1995) that a team which trailed its playoff opponent by 12 or more regular-season games won Games 1-2 against that playoff opponent.

After Game 1: The Chicago Bulls visited and outscored the Boston Celtics 106-pts-102 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1335 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Bulls have a series record of 20-7 and a Game 2 record of 15-12. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 10-20 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 2 record of 17-13 with an active four-Game 2 losing streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016-17 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished twelve games ahead of the Chicago Bulls. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by twelve regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 15-5 (.750) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1335 is the 88th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Boston Celtics, and the 51st for the Chicago Bulls. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have an all-rounds series record of 62-25 with an active four-series losing streak, a Preliminary-round series record of 6-5, and a Game 1 record of 57-30 with an active four-Game 1 losing streak, while the Chicago Bulls have an all-rounds series record of 27-23, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-6, and a Game 1 record of 27-23. Series 1335 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. Boston defeated Chicago in each of their first two best-of-7 NBA playoff series meetings.