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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2016 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1292.
Chicago Blackhawks vs St. Louis Blues

Schedule and 2015-16 Results
Regular Season Records: St. Louis 49-24-9=107pts, Chicago 47-26-9=103pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 13 April: Chicago loses at St. Louis, 1-goal-nil (OT)
Game 2 on Friday, 15 April: Chicago wins at St. Louis, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Sunday, 17 April: St. Louis wins at Chicago, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 19 April: St. Louis wins at Chicago, 4-goals-3
Game 5 on Thursday, 21 April: Chicago wins at St. Louis, 4-goals-3 (2OT)
Game 6 on Saturday, 23 April: St. Louis loses at Chicago, 6-goals-3
Game 7 on Monday, 25 April: Chicago loses at St. Louis, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The St. Louis Blues hosted and bested the Chicago Blackhawks 3-goals-2 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 victory. With the series 1292 win, the St. Louis Blues improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 21-34 overall and 12-12 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1292 loss, the Chicago Blackhawks see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 42-42 overall and 10-10 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious St. Louis Blues in series 1292 was WLWWLLW: Series 1292 thus becomes the fourth NHL Preliminary-round series, the eighth NHL series (all rounds), and the 15th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The series 1292 victory by the St. Louis Blues breaks a four-series losing streak; the series 1292 loss by the Chicago Blackhawks breaks a four-series winning streak. Once before did the St. Louis Blues follow a WLWWLLW win order to victory in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series - in series 189, over the Philadelphia Flyers in the 1968 NHL Quarterfinals (the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series played by the St. Louis Blues).

After Game 6: The Chicago Blackhawks hosted and topped the St. Louis Blues 6-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Blues have a Game 7 record of 6-8, while the Chicago Blackhawks have a Game 7 record of 7-6. The St. Louis Blues have a home ice Game 7 record of 3-2 (with the losses in their last two such series, in series 679 [in the 1995 NHL Preliminary round] and series 802 [in the 2000 NHL Preliminary round]). The Chicago Blackhawks have a road ice Game 7 record of 2-3 (with the wins in series 166 [in the 1965 NHL Semifinals] and series 1267 [50 years later, in the 2015 NHL Semifinals]). Chicago trailed series 1292 Game 6 at home by two goals as late as 4:12 into the second period. In the history of best-of-7 format NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2015, inclusive, home teams trailing by two goals as late as 4:12 into the second period had a game record of only 52-258 (.168).

After Game 5: The Chicago Blackhawks visited and bested the St. Louis Blues 4-goals-3 in double overtime to reduce the St. Louis Blues best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1292 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 7-2 and a Game 6 record of 4-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 3-17 and a Game 6 record of 6-14 with an active three-Game 6 winning streak. Series 1292 Game 5, which ended with the Chicago winning goal at 3:07 into the second overtime, is the longest game to date in the 2016 NHL playoffs. With the series 1292 Game 5 victory, the Chicago Blackhawks extend their Game 5-winning streak to five games in the wake of a 3-games-1 deficit in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 4: The St. Louis Blues visited and defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 4-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 7-1 and a Game 5 record of 5-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 1-12 and a Game 5 record of 5-8 (with an active four-Game 5 winning streak). St. Louis trailed in Chicago by one goal as late as 17:30 into the second period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2015, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 17:30 into the second period had a game record of 153-597 (.204).

After Game 3: The St. Louis Blues visited and topped the Chicago Blackhawks 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 8-9 and a Game 4 record of 6-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 14-18 and a Game 4 record of 22-10. St. Louis trailed series 1292 Game 3 in Chicago by a goal as late as 5:14 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 format NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2015, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 5:14 into the third period had a game record of only 133-585 (.185).

After Game 2: The Chicago Blackhawks visited and defeated the St. Louis Blues 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 9-17 and a Game 3 record of 12-14, while the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 20-12 (with an active three-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 16-16. Chicago trailed the Blues in St. Louis by a goal in series 1292 Game 2 as late as 19:54 into the second period. In the history of best-of-7 format NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2015, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 19:54 into the second period had a game record of only 143-581 (.198).

After Game 1: The St. Louis Blues hosted and shut out the Chicago Blackhawks 1-goal-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1292 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 16-11 (with an active three-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 12-15. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 16-32 and a Game 2 record of 16-32. The series 1292 Game 1 loss by the Chicago Blackhawks is their MLB/NBA/NHL-leading 49th best-of-7 Game 1 loss; Chicago had been tied with the NHL Boston Bruins (48) for the lead in this dubious category.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2015-16 NHL regular season, the St. Louis Blues finished four points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. From 1939 through the 2015 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-14 (.440) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1292 is the 55th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the St. Louis Blues, and the 84th for the Chicago Blackhawks. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Blues have an all-rounds series record of 20-34 (with an active four-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 11-12 (with an active three-series losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 27-27, while the Chicago Blackhawks have an all-rounds series record of 42-41 (with an active four-series winning streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 10-9 (with an active three-series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 35-48. Series 1292 is the tenth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the St. Louis Blues and the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago defeated St. Louis in six of their previous nine best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings. With a dozen best-of-7 format NHL Preliminary-round losses, the St. Louis Blues are tied with the Washington Capitals for the most NHL/NBA Preliminary-round series losses. The 48 best-of-7 format NHL playoff Game 1 losses by the Chicago Blackhawks, all rounds, are tied with those of the NHL Boston Bruins for the most among NBA/NHL/MLB teams in best-of-7 format playoff Game 1 competition.