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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2016 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1288.
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2015-16 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 46-31-5=97pts, Detroit 41-30-11=93pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 13 April: Detroit loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 15 April: Detroit loses at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-2
Game 3 on Sunday, 17 April: Tampa Bay loses at Detroit, 2-goals-nil
Game 4 on Tuesday, 19 April: Tampa Bay wins at Detroit, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Thursday, 21 April: Detroit loses at Tampa Bay, 1-goal-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and shut out the Detroit Red Wings 1-goal-nil to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1288 victory. With the series 1288 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 11-7 overall and 5-4 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1288 loss, the Detroit Red Wings see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 55-45 overall and 17-11 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1288 was WWLWW: Series 1288 thus becomes the 14th NHL Preliminary-round series, the 44th NHL series (all rounds), and the 113th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Detroit Red Wings have now lost a total of 267 games - more than any other MLB/NBA/NHL entity; prior to the 2016 NHL playoff series, Detroit and the Montreal Canadiens had been tied for the most such losses with 263 each.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1288 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 5 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 2-18 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 5 record of 7-13.

After Game 3: The Detroit Red Wings hosted and shut out the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-nil to drop the Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1288 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 4 record of 1-5 (with an active four-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 13-20 and a Game 4 record of 16-17.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1288 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 3 record of 3-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 5-17 (with an active three-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 11-11 (with an active three-Game 3 losing streak).

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1288 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-1 and a Game 2 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 17-28 and a Game 2 record of 23-22 (with an active three-Game 2 winning streak). The Lightning in Tampa Bay opened the 2016 NHL playoff season scoring with a goal 6:23 into the opening period, against the visiting Detroit Red Wings. Only once before had an NHL home team scored the first goal of a best-of-7 Preliminary-round series 6:23 into the first: the Red Wings in Detroit, in series 828 against the visiting Los Angeles Kings in 2001. The series 1288 Game 1 loss by the Detroit Red Wings is their MLB/NBA/NHL-leading 264th best-of-7 format playoff game loss; Detroit had been tied with the NHL Montreal Canadiens (263) for the lead in this dubious category. Tampa Bay trailed series 1288 Game 1 by a goal as late as 9:28 into the second period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, home teams down a goal as late as 9:28 into the second period had a game record of only 203-417 (.327).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2015-16 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished four points ahead of the Detroit Red Wings. From 1939 through the 2015 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-14 (.440) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1288 is the 18th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 100th for the Detroit Red Wings. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 10-7, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-4, and a Game 1 record of 6-11, while the Detroit Red Wings have an all-rounds series record of 55-44 (with an active three-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 17-10, and a Game 1 record of 54-45. Series 1288 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Detroit Red Wings. In their previous meeting, in series 1255, Tampa Bay defeated Detroit in seven games in their 2015 NHL Preliminary-round series. Series 1288 is the 100th best-of-7 playoff series for the Detroit Red Wings, which had been tied with the NBA Los Angeles Lakers for the second-most best-of-7 format playoff series appearances (behind the NHL Montreal Canadiens at 117 such series). The Detroit Red Wings have won more best-of-7 format Preliminary-round series (17) than any other NHL/NBA team but are tied with the NHL Montreal Canadiens for the most best-of-7 format playoff game losses (263) in NBA/NHL/MLB history, all rounds.