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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2016 MLB Finals round - Series 1319.
Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians

Schedule and 2016 Results
Regular Season Records: Cleveland 94-67, Chicago Cubs 103-58
Game 1 on Tuesday, 25 October: Chicago Cubs lose at Cleveland, 6-runs-nil
Game 2 on Wednesday, 26 October: Chicago Cubs win at Cleveland, 5-runs-1
Game 3 on Friday, 28 October: Cleveland wins at Chicago Cubs, 1-run-nil
Game 4 on Saturday, 29 October: Cleveland wins at Chicago Cubs, 7-runs-2
Game 5 on Sunday, 30 October: Cleveland loses at Chicago Cubs, 3-runs-2
Game 6 on Tuesday, 01 November: Chicago Cubs win at Cleveland, 9-runs-3
Game 7 on Wednesday, 02 November: Chicago Cubs win at Cleveland, 8-runs-7 (10 innings)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Chicago Cubs visited and topped the Cleveland Indians 8-runs-7 in 10 innings to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 victory. With the series 1319 win, the Chicago Cubs improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 4-11 overall and 3-8 in the Finals round. With the series 1319 loss, the Cleveland Indians see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 4-6 overall and 1-4 (with an active four-series losing streak) in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Chicago Cubs in series 1319 was LWLLWWW: Series 1319 thus becomes the fourth MLB Finals-round series, the sixth MLB series (all rounds), and the 23rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Chicago Cubs have now won best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3, 4, 1318, and 1319, and their first best-of-7 MLB Finals series since 1908. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals Game 7 beginning with series 411 (the 1982 MLB Finals, won by the St. Louis Cardinals over the Milwaukee Brewers) and ending with series 971 (the 2006 NHL Finals, won by the Carolina Hurricanes over the Edmonton Oilers), home teams posted 18 consecutive victories; since then, however, home teams in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals Game 7 have only a 3-5 record with an active three-game losing streak. The five total runs tallied by the Cubs in Chicago in the 2016 MLB Finals are the second-fewest runs ever scored at home by a best-of-7 MLB Finals winner in a series lasting seven games since series 55, in which the Tigers in Detroit tallied only four total runs at home in the 1945 MLB Finals lasting seven games . . . over the Chicago Cubs. The series 1319 comeback by the Chicago Cubs from a 3-games-1 deficit to prevail 4-games-3 over the Cleveland Indians is the first in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series since series 1316, in which the NBA Cleveland Cavaliers achieved such a comeback over the Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals.

After Game 6: The Chicago Cubs visited and topped the Cleveland Indians 9-runs-3 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Cleveland Indians have a Game 7 record of 0-2, while the Chicago Cubs have a Game 7 record of 0-2. Both of the Game 7 losses sustained by the Cleveland Cavaliers were on the road, in the 1997 MLB Finals to the old Florida Marlins, and in the 2007 MLB Semifinals to the Boston Red Sox; series 1319 Game 7 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 7 by the Indians in Cleveland. Both of the Game 7 losses sustained by the Chicago Cubs were at home, in the 1945 MLB Finals to the Detroit Tigers, and in the 2003 MLB Semifinals to the old Florida Marlins; series 1319 Game 7 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 7 by the Cubs outside of Chicago. The seven runs by the Cubs in Cleveland after only three innings of series 1319 Game 6 are the most by a visiting team through three innings of a best-of-7 MLB Finals game since series 722 Game 1, in which the Atlanta Braves posted eight runs through the first three innings en route to a 12-runs-1 defeat of the Yankees in New York in the 1996 MLB Finals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Cleveland Indians which post a WLWWLL @ HHVVVH win-site order have an 0-2 Game 7 record, with the losses sustained by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1968 MLB Finals and by the Baltimore Orioles in the 1979 MLB Finals.

After Game 5: The Chicago Cubs hosted and bested the Cleveland Indians 3-runs-2 to reduce the Cleveland Indians best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1319 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 6 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 6 record of 1-3. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Cleveland Indians have a 3-1 series record and a 3-1 Game 6 record; the sole Game 6 and series loss occurred in the Indians' last such series, against the Boston Red Sox in series 1020, the 2007 American League Championship Series. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Chicago Cubs' sole Game 6 victory occurred in the last series in which they trailed 3-games-2 (i.e., series 55, in the 1945 MLB Finals).

After Game 4: The Cleveland Indians visited and defeated the Chicago Cubs 7-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 5 record of 1-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 5 record of 2-3. In best-of-7 MLB Finals, the teams to post a LWLL win order through four games (as the Chicago Cubs have in series 1319) but win the series were the Pittsburgh Pirates (in series 18, the 1925 MLB Finals; in series 366, the 1979 MLB Finals) and the Detroit Tigers (in series 201, the 1968 MLB Finals). The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to fall behind LWLL in a best-of-7 playoff series but prevail was the NBA Golden State Warriors in series 1315, in the 2016 NBA Semifinals - the Warriors would advance to meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in series 1316, the 2016 NBA Finals, and take a 3-games-1 lead (though of different win order) before losing in seven games. So it is that a favorable precedent was set for the 2016 Chicago Cubs by the team which rallied to win a Finals berth against the Cleveland Indians' NBA neighbors.

After Game 3: The Cleveland Indians visited and shut out the Chicago Cubs 1-run-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 4 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 1-5 and a Game 4 record of 2-4. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Cubs have a 1-5 series record, but the sole victory occurred in the Cubs' last such series (series 1318, in the 2016 MLB Semifinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers). In all 14 best-of-7 MLB playoff games thus far in 2016 has the team scoring first won the game, and without the team trailing first ever rallying for a lead. Series 1319 Game 3 marks the third 1-run-nil loss by the Cubs in Chicago, and the second 1-run-nil win by the Cleveland Indians on the road. Series 1319 Game 3 is the sixth best-of-7 MLB playoff game in which the only scoring was one run in the top of the seventh inning; the first such game was series 2 Game 4, in which the Cubs "visited" the Chicago White Sox and prevailed with the game's sole run in the top of the seventh inning in the 1906 MLB Finals.

After Game 2: The Chicago Cubs visited and topped the Cleveland Indians 5-runs-1 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 3-3 (with an active three-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 4-2, while the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 1-6 and a Game 3 record of 2-5. Tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Chicago Cubs have a 1-6 series record but the sole victory occurred in the last such series (the 2016 National League Championship Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers). In two previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series has a team (such as the Cleveland Indians in the 2016 MLB Finals) won Game 1 by shutout and lost Game 2 by four runs: In series 144, the New York Yankees did so in the 1961 MLB Finals, and defeated the Cincinnati Reds in five games; in series 474, the Houston Astros did so in the 1986 MLB Semifinals, and lost to the New York Mets in six games.

After Game 1: The Cleveland Indians hosted and shut out the Chicago Cubs 6-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1319 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Cubs have a series record of 0-9 and a Game 2 record of 4-5. Series 1319 Game 1 was the first and most one-sided shutout in Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB Finals since series 575, in which Cleveland's fellow Ohio players - the Cincinnati Reds - whitewashed the visiting Oakland Athletics 7-runs-nil in Game 1 of the 1990 World Series en route to a four-game sweep. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams winning Game 1 by shutout have a 4-11 Game 2 record (with an active three-Game 2 winning streak) and a 7-8 series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016 MLB regular season, the Chicago Cubs finished nine games ahead of the Cleveland Indians. From 1905 through the 2016 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by nine regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 0-2 (.000) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1319 is the 15th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Chicago Cubs, and the tenth for the Cleveland Indians. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Chicago Cubs have an all-rounds series record of 3-11, a Finals-round series record of 2-8 (with an active seven-Finals losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 5-9, while the Cleveland Indians have an all-rounds series record of 4-5, a Finals-round series record of 1-3 (with an active three-Finals losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 1-8. Series 1319 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians. The two previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which one team finished nine regular-season games ahead of the other were series 216 (in which the 100-62 New York Mets upset the 109-53 Baltimore Orioles in the 1969 MLB Finals) and series 746 (in which the 92-70 Florida Marlins upset the 101-61 Atlanta Braves in the 1997 National League Championship Series . . . and then defeated the Cleveland Indians in the 1997 MLB Finals).