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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2016 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1317.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians

Schedule and 2016 Results
Regular Season Records: Cleveland 94-67, Toronto 89-73
Game 1 on Friday, 14 October: Toronto loses at Cleveland, 2-runs-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 15 October: Toronto loses at Cleveland, 2-runs-1
Game 3 on Monday, 17 October: Cleveland wins at Toronto, 4-runs-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 18 October: Cleveland loses at Toronto, 5-runs-1
Game 5 on Wednesday, 19 October: Cleveland wins at Toronto, 3-runs-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Cleveland Indians visited and shut out the Toronto Blue Jays 3-runs-nil to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1317 victory. With the series 1317 win, the Cleveland Indians improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 4-5 overall and 3-2 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1317 loss, the Toronto Blue Jays see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 4-5 overall and 2-5 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Cleveland Indians in series 1317 was WWWLW: Series 1317 thus becomes the first MLB Semifinals-round series, the fourth MLB series (all rounds), and the 87th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Cleveland Indians in series 1317 allowed only one run by the opposing Toronto Blue Jays while in Cleveland - the fewest total runs allowed by a team at home in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series since series 550, in which the Oakland Athletics allowed the San Francisco Giants only one run in Oakland in the 1989 MLB Finals.

After Game 4: The Toronto Blue Jays hosted and bested the Cleveland Indians 5-runs-1 to drop the Cleveland Indians best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1317 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 5 record of 1-2. The sole loss by the Cleveland Indians in the wake of a 3-games-1 lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series occurred in series 1020, to the Boston Red Sox in the 2007 American League Championship Series. With their series 1317 Game 4 victory, the Toronto Blue Jays break a nine-Game 4 losing streak by MLB teams trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-nil. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams (such as the Toronto Blue Jays) which lose Games 1-3 but win Game 4 have a 3-3 Game 5 record with an active three-Game 5 winning streak.

After Game 3: The Cleveland Indians visited and defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1317 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. So it is that neither the Cleveland Indians have led nor the Toronto Blue Jays have trailed a prior best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil after three games. Cleveland is poised to achieve only the seventh best-of-7 MLB playoff series "annihilation" but the second in two years if the Indians can sweep Toronto without once trailing the Blue Jays in Game 4 - Toronto has yet to hold an in-game lead in series 1317. The Toronto Blue Jays in series 1317 shall now vie to become the sixth MLB/NBA/NHL team in 340 tries to surmount a three-games-nil deficit to win a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series.

After Game 2: The Cleveland Indians hosted and defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 2-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1317 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0 (i.e., the Cleveland Indians are in a franchise-unprecedented situation with their 2-games-nil series 1317 lead). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-0. The Cleveland Indians extend their best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 2 winning streak to five straight Game 2s with their series 1318 Game 2 victory; the Toronto Blue Jays have now lost three consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 2s.

After Game 1: The Cleveland Indians hosted and shut out the Toronto Blue Jays 2-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1317 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Indians have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 2 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 2 record of 3-2. The series 1317 Game 1 victory by the Cleveland Indians is their first MLB best-of-7 playoffs Game 1 victory in nine tries. Series 1317 Game 1 has a best-of-7 MLB playoffs mirror game in series 988 Game 1 (in which the New York Mets hosted and shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 2-runs-nil in the 2006 National League Championship Series), in that they are the only two games in best-of-7 MLB playoffs history in which the only scoring was two runs in the bottom of the sixth inning. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Cleveland Indians which win Game 1 at home by shutout have a 6-7 series record: The last such occurrence was in series 1284, in which the Kansas City Royals hosted and whitewashed the Toronto Blue Jays 5-runs-nil in Game 1 of their 2015 American League Championship Series en route to the 2015 MLB championship.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2016 MLB regular season, the Cleveland Indians finished 5.5 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. From 1905 through the 2015 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 5.5 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 1-7 (.125) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1317 is the ninth best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Cleveland Indians, and the ninth for the Toronto Blue Jays. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Cleveland Indians have an all-rounds series record of 3-5, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 0-8, while the Toronto Blue Jays have an all-rounds series record of 4-4, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-4, and a Game 1 record of 3-5. Series 1317 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Cleveland Indians and the Toronto Blue Jays. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams finishing 5.5 games ahead of their opponents (such as the Cleveland Indians in the 2016 MLB Semifinals) had a playoff series record of only 1-7 - the sole winner has been the old Florida Marlins in the last such series (series 747, in the 1997 MLB Finals against, ironically, the Cleveland Indians).