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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2015 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1266.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

Schedule and 2014-15 Results
Regular Season Records: New York Rangers 53-22-7=113pts, Tampa Bay 50-24-8=108pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 16 May: Tampa Bay loses at New York Rangers, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Monday, 18 May: Tampa Bay wins at New York Rangers, 6-goals-2
Game 3 on Wednesday, 20 May: New York Rangers lose at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-5 (OT)
Game 4 on Friday, 22 May: New York Rangers win at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-1
Game 5 on Sunday, 24 May: Tampa Bay wins at New York Rangers, 2-goals-nil
Game 6 on Tuesday, 26 May: New York Rangers win at Tampa Bay, 7-goals-3
Game 7 on Friday, 29 May: Tampa Bay wins at New York Rangers, 2-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and shut out the New York Rangers 2-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 victory. With the series 1266 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 10-6 overall and 2-1 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1266 loss, the New York Rangers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 32-39 overall and 6-16 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1266 was LWWLWLW: Series 1266 thus becomes the third NHL Semifinals-round series, the eleventh NHL series (all rounds), and the 26th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The road-ice Game 7 shutout achieved by the Tampa Bay Lightning is the ninth in best-of-7 NHL playoff series history, the first since series 1190 (in which the New York Rangers whitewashed the Capitals in Washington 5-goals-nil in the 2013 NHL Preliminary round), and the second by Tampa Bay (with the first in Pittsburgh in series 1125, in the 2011 NHL Preliminary round). The Tampa Bay Lightning also become the first MLB/NHL team to achieve shutout victories on the road in Games 5 and 7 of a best-of-7 playoff series lasting the full seven games. While each team in series 1266 scored a total of 21 goals, the Rangers in New York scored only four goals - the fewest by a team with site order HHVVHVH in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series lasting the full seven games since series 77, in which the Red Wings in Detroit scored only four goals in their 1950 NHL Semifinals series. Series 1266 Game 7 ends the New York Rangers' six-Game 7 winning streak, and drops their best-of-7 NHL playoff series Game 7 home ice record to 7-1.

After Game 6: The New York Rangers visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have a Game 7 record of 9-5 (with an active six-Game 7 winning streak), while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a Game 7 record of 4-1. The New York Rangers have a best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7 record of 7-0 on home ice, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-1 Game 7 record on road ice. The seven goals scored by the New York Rangers in series 1266 Game 6 are the most by a road team since series 1233 Game 1, in which the Rangers also tallied seven goals in Montreal against the Canadiens in their 2014 NHL Semifinals series.

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and shut out the New York Rangers 2-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 6 record of 2-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Rangers have a series record of 5-17 and a Game 6 record of 8-14. In the last three best-of-7 NHL playoff series which they've trailed 3-games-2, the New York Rangers won Games 6-7 to claim the series.

After Game 4: The New York Rangers visited and topped the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have a series record of 13-14 and a Game 5 record of 11-16, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-3 and a Game 5 record of 2-5 (with an active four-Game 5 losing streak). Series 1266 Game 4 becomes the second best-of-7 NHL playoff game in which the road team (New York) scored its first goal 17:18 into the first period and won: In the first such game, in series 827 Game 3, the Colorado Avalanche did so in Vancouver against the Canucks in the 2001 NHL Preliminary round; Colorado went on to win the 2001 NHL championship.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New York Rangers 6-goals-5 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 4 record of 1-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Rangers have a series record of 9-20 (with an active three-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 16-13. The Lightning trailed the New York Rangers in Tampa Bay by two goals as late as 11:06 into the first period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2014, inclusive, home teams trailing by two goals as late as 11:06 into the second period had a game record of only 24-114 (.174).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and topped the New York Rangers 6-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have a series record of 19-15 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 3-7, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-4 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. Series 1266 Game 2 ends a record streak of fifteen consecutive NHL playoff games decided by a single goal in which the New York Rangers have participated. Series 1266 Game 2 is the second best-of-7 format NHL playoff game in which the road team opened the game scoring 5:38 into the first period; the first was Game 7 of the 1945 NHL Finals, in which the Toronto Maple Leafs took a 1-goal-nil 5:38 into the first at Detroit against the Red Wings en route to a 2-goals-1 win of series 54 (a series in which Toronto had won Games 1-3 and Detroit Games 4-6). Twice before in best-of-7 NHL playoff history has the home team for Games 1-2 won Game 1 by a goal and lost Game 2 by four: In the first of those occurrences series 603 - the New York Rangers did so in the 1992 NHL Preliminary round against the New Jersey Devils, and won in seven games.

After Game 1: The New York Rangers hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1266 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Rangers have a series record of 22-11 and a Game 2 record of 13-20. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 2 record of 6-3. Series 1266 Game 1 is the fifteenth consecutive NHL playoff game decided by a single goal in which the New York Rangers have participated. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series since 1939, inclusive, home teams winning Game 1 by a 2-goals-1 score have a 33-14 (.702) series record. The Tampa Bay Lightning have now been involved in the last three NHL playoff games in which the home team scored first, the road team tied the game, and the home team won the game 2-goals-1 with the game-winner in the last five minutes of regulation: In series 1262 Game 5, Tampa Bay also lost in Montreal in that manner, while in series 1262 Game 3, Tampa Bay hosted and defeated Montreal in that manner (in the just-completed 2015 NHL Quarterfinals round).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2014-15 NHL regular season, the New York Rangers finished five points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning. From 1939 through the 2015 NHL Quarterfinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 26-12 (.684) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1266 is the 71st best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the New York Rangers, and the 16th for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have an all-rounds series record of 32-38, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-15, and a Game 1 record of 33-37, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 9-6, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 6-9. Series 1266 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning.