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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2015 MLB Finals round - Series 1286.
New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals

Schedule and 2015 Results
Regular Season Records: Kansas City 95-67, New York Mets 90-72
Game 1 on Tuesday, 27 October: New York Mets lose at Kansas City, 5-runs-4 (14 innings)
Game 2 on Wednesday, 28 October: New York Mets lose at Kansas City, 7-runs-1
Game 3 on Friday, 30 October: Kansas City loses at New York Mets, 9-runs-3
Game 4 on Saturday, 31 October: Kansas City wins at New York Mets, 5-runs-3
Game 5 on Sunday, 01 November: Kansas City wins at New York Mets, 7-runs-2 (12 innings)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Kansas City Royals visited and defeated the New York Mets 7-runs-2 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1286 victory. With the series 1286 win, the Kansas City Royals improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Finals round. With the series 1286 loss, the New York Mets see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 5-6 overall and 2-3 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Kansas City Royals in series 1286 was WWLWW: Series 1286 thus becomes the eighth MLB Finals-round series, the 15th MLB series (all rounds), and the 112th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The five runs tallied by the Kansas City Royals in the top of the 12th inning are the most runs ever scored in an extra inning of a best-of-7 MLB Finals game, breaking the old record of four (scored in the top of the 12th inning of series 276 Game 2, in the 1973 MLB Finals, in Oakland against the Athletics . . . by the New York Mets). Kansas City trailed the host New York Mets by two runs after eight innings of series 1286 Game 5, but prevailed. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games, road teams such as Kansas City which trailed by two runs entering the top of the ninth inning had a game record of 6-90 (.0625). In a best-of-7 MLB Finals, the previous game in which the road team surmounted a two-run deficit after eight innings was in series 458, in which the St. Louis Cardinals visited and defeated the Kansas City Royals in 1985 MLB Finals Game 2.

After Game 4: The Kansas City Royals visited and bested the New York Mets 5-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1286 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Kansas City Royals have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Mets have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 5 record of 1-1. The visiting Kansas City Royals trailed by one run entering the top of the eighth inning. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB playoff games, road teams down a run after seven innings had a game record of 18-84 (.176). Of the 18 previous home teams which succumbed in this situation, two were the Mets in New York (in series 276, to the visiting Oakland Athletics in 1973 MLB Finals Game 3) and the Royals in Kansas City (in series 456, to the visiting Toronto Blue Jays in Game 4 of their 1985 MLB Semifinals series). In best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds), teams posting a WWLW @ HHVV win-site order through the first four games (such as Kansas City in the 2015 MLB Finals) have won 13 consecutive series - the last team to lose such a series after posting a WWLW @ HHVV win-site order was the Toronto Blue Jays in series 456 . . . this, upon having rallied to win Game 4 in the wake of a one-run deficit on the road after seven innings.

After Game 3: The New York Mets hosted and defeated the Kansas City Royals 9-runs-3 to reduce the Kansas City Royals best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1286 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Kansas City Royals have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Mets have a series record of 1-3 and a Game 4 record of 3-1. Teams such as the Kansas City Royals which post a WWL @ HHV win-site order in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series have an active 17-series winning streak; the last MLB teams to lose after posting such a win-site order were the Los Angeles Dodgers (to the St. Louis Cardinals in series 457) and the Toronto Blue Jays (to the Kansas City Royals in series 456), both in the 1985 MLB Semifinals. So it is that the 2015 New York Mets seek to emulate the 1985 Kansas City Royals against their 2015 counterparts. Series 1286 has become only the second best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which a team (the New York Mets) lost Game 1 by a run, lost Game 2 by six runs, and won Game 3 by six runs: In series 475, the Mets also did so in the 1986 MLB Finals against the Boston Red Sox (though with home-field advantage in that series), ultimately defeating Boston in seven games.

After Game 2: The Kansas City Royals hosted and defeated the New York Mets 7-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1286 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Kansas City Royals have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New York Mets have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-1. Teams such as the Kansas City Royals which win Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 MLB Finals series at home have an active 14-series winning streak; the last team to win Games 1-2 at home but lose the MLB Finals was the New York Yankees, in series 396 (the 1981 MLB Finals) to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Beginning with the 1955 MLB Finals and ending with the 1971 MLB Finals, teams taking a 2-games-nil lead with Games 1-2 at home had a 0-5 MLB Finals series record. The New York Mets now have an active four-Game 2 losing streak upon having lost Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series. The New York Mets (series 475, over the Boston Red Sox in the 1986 MLB Finals) have won one best-of-7 MLB playoff series upon having lost the first two games.

After Game 1: The Kansas City Royals hosted and defeated the New York Mets 5-runs-4 in 14 innings to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1286 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Kansas City Royals have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 2 record of 2-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Mets have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 2 record of 3-3 (with an active three-Game 2 losing streak). Series 1286 Game 1 by innings is the longest best-of-7 MLB Finals game since series 956 Game 3, in which the Chicago White Sox visited and outlasted the Houston Astros 7-runs-5 in 14 innings in the 2005 MLB Finals. In series 12, the Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the Brooklyn Dodgers 2-runs-1 in 14 innings in 1916 MLB Finals Game 2. Kansas City trailed series 1286 Game 1 by two runs after the top of the sixth inning. In the history of the 951 best-of-7 format MLB playoff games since 1905, home teams such as the Kansas City Royals which trailed by two runs after 5.5 innings had a 26-80 (.245) game record. Home teams winning an MLB Finals Game 1 have won thirteen consecutive MLB Finals since series 650, when the Blue Jays in Toronto began the series winning streak in 1993. In series 216, the Orioles in Baltimore won Game 1 of the 1969 MLB Finals, but then lost Games 2-5 and the series to the New York Mets, which now hope to emulate their first MLB Finals victory in 2015. Game 1 of series 1286 becomes only the 21st best-of-7 MLB playoff game in which the home team trailed after the top of the ninth inning but prevailed. The last time in a best-of-7 MLB Finals Game 1 that the home team trailed after 8.5 innings but won was in series 822 Game 1, in which the Yankees in New York accomplished the feat in 2000 . . . also against the visiting Mets.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2015 MLB regular season, the Kansas City Royals finished five games ahead of the New York Mets. From 1905 through the 2015 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 4-5 in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1286 is the seventh best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Kansas City Royals, and the eleventh for the New York Mets. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Kansas City Royals have an all-rounds series record of 4-2, a Finals-round series record of 1-2, and a Game 1 record of 2-4, while the New York Mets have an all-rounds series record of 5-5, a Finals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 4-6.