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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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2014 NBA Finals round - Series 1250.
Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2013-14 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 62-20, Miami 54-28
Game 1 on Thursday, 05 June: Miami loses at San Antonio, 110-pts-95
Game 2 on Sunday, 08 June: Miami wins at San Antonio, 98-pts-96
Game 3 on Tuesday, 10 June: San Antonio wins at Miami, 111-pts-92
Game 4 on Thursday, 12 June: San Antonio wins at Miami, 107-pts-86
Game 5 on Sunday, 15 June: Miami loses at San Antonio, 104-pts-87

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 104-pts-87 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1250 victory. With the series 1250 win, the San Antonio Spurs improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 34-20 overall and 5-1 in the Finals round. With the series 1250 loss, the Miami Heat see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 22-9 overall and 3-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 was WLWWW: Series 1250 thus becomes the fourth NBA Finals-round series, the 25th NBA series (all rounds), and the 76th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The series 1250 loss snaps an 11-series winning streak for the deposed two-time defending NBA champion Miami Heat.

After Game 4: The San Antonio Spurs visited and defeated the Miami Heat 107-pts-86 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1250 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 14-1 (with an active 13-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 10-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Miami Heat have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 5 record of 1-2. Series 1250 marks only the 12th time that the road team has won Games 3-4 of a best-of-7 NBA Finals, and the first time since series 1019, in which the San Antonio Spurs accomplished the feat against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2007 NBA Finals. On the eleven previous occasions in which the road team won Games 3-4 of a best-of-7 NBA Finals, the largest single-game margin of victory was 17 points (by the Philadelphia 76ers over the L.A. Lakers in series 425 Game 3, in the 1983 NBA Finals); in series 1250, by contrast, San Antonio won Game 3 by 19 points and Game 4 by 21 points. The 21-point halftime lead by San Antonio in series 1250 Game 3 is the third-largest halftime lead ever by a road team in a best-of-7 NBA Finals game, while the 19-point halftime lead by San Antonio in series 1250 Game 4 is the fifth-largest halftime lead ever by a road team in a best-of-7 NBA Finals game (in series 719 Game 3, the Chicago Bulls held a 24-point halftime lead over the old Supersonics in Seattle in the 1996 Finals; in series 694 Game 2, the Houston Rockets held a 22-point halftime lead over the Magic in Orlando in the 1995 Finals; in series 200 Game 6, the Boston Celtics held a 20-point halftime over the Lakers in Los Angeles in the 1968 Finals). The 21-point margin of victory by San Antonio in Miami in series 1250 Game 4 is the third-largest margin of victory by a road team in a best-of-7 NBA Finals game, next only to the 23-point margin by the Boston Celtics in 1981 NBA Finals Game 3, and the 22-point margin by both the New York Knickerbockers in 1972 Finals Game 1 and the Chicago Bulls in 1996 Finals Game 3.

After Game 3: The San Antonio Spurs visited and bested the Miami Heat 111-pts-92 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1250 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 18-4 and a Game 4 record of 10-12 (with an active four-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Miami Heat have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 4 record of 4-1 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). The 41-point 1st quarter by the San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 was the highest-scoring first quarter by one team in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game since series 1075 Game 2, when the Los Angeles Lakers scored 41 points in the first quarter in the 2009 NBA Preliminary round at home against the Utah Jazz. The 41-point 1st quarter by the San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 was the highest-scoring first quarter by a road team in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game since series 618 Game 4, in which the Portland Trailblazers scored 42 points in the first quarter in the 1992 NBA Quarterfinals round in Phoenix against the Suns. The 41-point 1st quarter by the San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 was the highest-scoring first quarter by a team in a best-of-7 NBA Finals game since series 185 Game 6, in which the visiting Philadelphia 76ers led the host San Francisco Warriors 43-pts-41 after one quarter of their 1967 NBA Finals game. The 71 points in the first half by the visiting San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 were the most in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game by one team since series 976 Game 1, in which the San Antonio Spurs scored 73 points in the first half of a 2006 NBA Preliminary round game at home against the Sacramento Kings. The 71 points in the first half by the visiting San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 were the most in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game by a road team since the aforementioned series 618 Game 4, in which the Portland Trailblazers scored 74 points in the first half of a 1992 NBA Quarterfinals round game in Phoenix against the Suns. The 71 points in the first half by the visiting San Antonio Spurs in series 1250 Game 3 were the most in a best-of-7 NBA Finals game by one team since series 497 Game 2, in which the Los Angeles Lakers scored 75 first-half points in their 1987 NBA Finals game at home against the Boston Celtics. The 4-1 best-of-7 NBA playoff series record by the Miami Heat in the wake of a 2-games-1 deficit is among the best such MLB/NBA/NHL series records in that situation, tied with that of the NHL Carolina Hurricanes (also 4-1) and behind only that of the old MLB Milwaukee Braves (1-0) and of the old MLB Florida Marlins (2-0); the worst such record is that of the NHL Buffalo Sabres, whose series record is 0-14 when down 2-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 2: The Miami Heat visited and topped the San Antonio Spurs 98-pts-96 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1250 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 10-10 and a Game 3 record of 11-9, while the Miami Heat have a series record of 10-4 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 11-3. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, road teams down by seven points after one quarter (such as the Miami Heat in 2014 NBA Finals Game 2) had only a 29-78 (.271) game record prior to 2014 NBA Finals Game 2. The last road team to trail by seven points after one quarter of an NBA Finals game but win the game was also the Miami Heat, in Dallas against the Mavericks in decisive Game 6 of the 2006 NBA Finals.

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and bested the Miami Heat 110-pts-95 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1250 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 27-6 and a Game 2 record of 24-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Miami Heat have a series record of 8-6 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 9-5 (with an active five-Game 2 winning streak). Series 1250 Game 1 is the 11th consecutive best-of-7 playoff Game 1 victory by the San Antonio Spurs, which is the longest active best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL consecutive Game 1 winning streak (next is that of the MLB Minnesota Twins and the old NHL Minnesota North Stars at six [and, for the Twins, counting] consecutive best-of-7 playoff Game 1 victories; the MLB Cleveland Indians, by contrast, have lost eight and counting consecutive best-of-7 playoff Game 1s). Among MLB/NBA/NHL teams with eight or more Game 1 losses, only the NHL Carolina Hurricanes (5-3, .625) and MLB New York Yankees (11-8, .579) have a better best-of-7 playoff series record than the Miami Heat (8-6, .571) upon losing Game 1 (by stark contrast, the NBA Atlanta Hawks have a best-of-7 NBA playoff series record of 0-18 upon losing Game 1 of the series). San Antonio won Game 1 of the 2014 NBA Finals by 15 points. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals from 1947 through 2013, inclusive, teams which win Game 1 by 15 or more points have a 10-2 series record with an active five-series winning streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2013-14 NBA regular season, the San Antonio Spurs finished eight games ahead of the Miami Heat. From 1947 through the 2014 NBA Semifinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 21-6 (.778) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1250 is the 54th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the San Antonio Spurs, and the 31st for the Miami Heat. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have an all-rounds series record of 33-20, a Finals-round series record of 4-1, and a Game 1 record of 33-20 (with an active ten-Game 1 winning streak), while the Miami Heat have an all-rounds series record of 22-8 (with an active 11-series winning streak), a Finals-round series record of 3-1, and a Game 1 record of 16-14. Series 1250 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat. The 2014 NBA Finals are a re-match of the 2013 NBA Finals, won by the Miami Heat.