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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2014 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1249.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2013-14 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 62-20, Oklahoma City 59-23
Game 1 on Monday, 19 May: Oklahoma City loses at San Antonio, 122-pts-105
Game 2 on Wednesday, 21 May: Oklahoma City loses at San Antonio, 112-pts-77
Game 3 on Sunday, 25 May: San Antonio loses at Oklahoma City, 106-pts-97
Game 4 on Tuesday, 27 May: San Antonio loses at Oklahoma City, 105-pts-92
Game 5 on Thursday, 29 May: Oklahoma City loses at San Antonio, 117-pts-89
Game 6 on Saturday, 31 May: San Antonio wins at Oklahoma City, 112-pts-107 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The San Antonio Spurs visited and outscored the Oklahoma City Thunder 112-pts-107 in overtime to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1249 victory. With the series 1249 win, the San Antonio Spurs improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 33-20 overall and 6-7 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1249 loss, the Oklahoma City Thunder see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 8-5 overall and 1-2 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious San Antonio Spurs in series 1249 was WWLLWW: Series 1249 thus becomes the tenth NBA Semifinals-round series, the 29th NBA series (all rounds), and the 71st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The sum of the six victory margins in series 1249 was 107 points the second-largest such sum in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series lasting six games (next only to series 716, in which the Utah Jazz defeated the Spurs in six games in the 1996 NBA Quarterfinals, and in which the sum of those six victory margins was 114 points). San Antonio trailed in Oklahoma City by seven points at halftime. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games prior to series 1249 Game 6, road teams down seven points at halftime had a 20-85 (.190) game record.

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 117-pts-89 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1249 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 13-2 and a Game 6 record of 10-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 6 record of 1-1. Through five games of series 1249, the sum of the victory margins from each game is 102 points and counting this sum is the largest such sum in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series since series 1112, in which the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers produced a 106-point sum of victory margins over the six games of their 2010 NBA Quarterfinals series. The largest sum of victory margins ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series is 134 points, by the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat in a Preliminary-round series lasting seven games (series 1074, in 2009).

After Game 4: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 105-pts-92 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1249 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 10-7 and a Game 5 record of 10-7 (with an active three-Game 5 winning streak), while the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 4-1 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 3-2. The win/site order of WWLL @ HHVV by the San Antonio Spurs in series 1249 continues to match that of series 1183 by the Spurs (in which the Spurs then lost Games 5-6 and the series to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2012 NBA Western Conference Finals).

After Game 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and bested the San Antonio Spurs 106-pts-97 to reduce the San Antonio Spurs best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1249 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 17-4 and a Game 4 record of 10-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 3-4 and a Game 4 record of 4-3. Upon posting a WWL @ HHV win/site order through three games of a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have an 8-2 series record; in both series losses, the Spurs lost Games 4-6, and the second of those two series losses was to the Oklahoma City Thunder in series 1183 (in the 2012 NBA Semifinals). So it is that the 2014 NBA Western Conference Finals has a win/site order identical to that of two years ago through three games, and that the precedent is favorable to trailing Oklahoma City.

After Game 2: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and topped the Oklahoma City Thunder 112-pts-77 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1249 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 21-2 and a Game 3 record of 13-10. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 3 record of 2-0. The 35-point San Antonio win in series 1249 Game 2 was the largest margin of victory in Game 2 of a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series since series 163, in which the San Francisco Warriors hosted and defeated the St. Louis Hawks 120-pts-85 in Game 2 of their 1964 NBA Semifinals series.

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and bested the Oklahoma City Thunder 122-pts-105 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1249 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 26-6 and a Game 2 record of 23-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 2 record of 3-2. With the series 1249 Game 1 victory, the San Antonio Spurs extend their best-of-7 playoff Game 1 winning streak to ten. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, home teams winning Game 1 by 17 points (such as San Antonio in series 1249) have an 8-1 series record, with the sole loss occurring in the last such series (in series 1206, by the Brooklyn Nets to the Chicago Bulls in the 2013 NBA Preliminary round).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2013-14 NBA regular season, the San Antonio Spurs finished three games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. From 1947 through the 2014 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 15-15 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1249 is the 53rd best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the San Antonio Spurs, and the 13th for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have an all-rounds series record of 32-20, a Semifinals-round series record of 5-7, and a Game 1 record of 32-20 (with an active nine-Game 1 winning streak), while the Oklahoma City Thunder have an all-rounds series record of 8-4, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 7-5. Series 1249 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio in series 1183, in the 2012 NBA Semifinals.