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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2014 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1248.
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Schedule and 2013-14 Results
Regular Season Records: Indiana 56-26, Miami 54-28
Game 1 on Sunday, 18 May: Miami loses at Indiana, 107-pts-96
Game 2 on Tuesday, 20 May: Miami wins at Indiana, 87-pts-83
Game 3 on Saturday, 24 May: Indiana loses at Miami, 99-pts-87
Game 4 on Monday, 26 May: Indiana loses at Miami, 102-pts-90
Game 5 on Wednesday, 28 May: Miami loses at Indiana, 93-pts-90
Game 6 on Friday, 30 May: Indiana loses at Miami, 117-pts-92

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Miami Heat hosted and bested the Indiana Pacers 117-pts-92 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1248 victory. With the series 1248 win, the Miami Heat improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 22-8 (with an active 11-series winning streak) overall and 5-2 (with an active five-Semifinals series winning streak) in the Semifinals round. With the series 1248 loss, the Indiana Pacers see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 14-13 overall and 1-7 in the Semifinals round. The Miami Heat thus achieve their fourth consecutive berth in the NBA Finals round. The win order for the victorious Miami Heat in series 1248 was LWWWLW: Series 1248 thus becomes the third NBA Semifinals-round series, the 15th NBA series (all rounds), and the 48th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Ironically, the last NBA team to win a best-of-7 playoff series via win order LWWWLW was the series 1248-losing Indiana Pacers (in series 1244, over the Washington Wizards in the 2014 NBA Quarterfinals).

After Game 5: The Indiana Pacers hosted and bested the Miami Heat 93-pts-90 to drop the Miami Heat best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1248 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a series record of 6-2 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 4-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 1-10 (with the sole victory in the last such series, in the 2014 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 6 record of 4-7. The Pacers in Indiana trailed by nine points at halftime: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams trailing by nine points at halftime had a 13-36 (.265) game record.

After Game 4: The Miami Heat hosted and defeated the Indiana Pacers 102-pts-90 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1248 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Miami Heat have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 5 record of 8-1 (with an active seven-Game 5 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 5 record of 2-1. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams such as the Miami Heat which post a LWWW @ VVHH win/site order through the first four games have a 24-2 series record, with the two losses occurring in the 1970 NBA Quarterfinals (by the Phoenix Suns to the Los Angeles Lakers in series 227) and in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round (by the Los Angeles Lakers to the Phoenix Suns in series 977).

After Game 3: The Miami Heat hosted and topped the Indiana Pacers 99-pts-87 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1248 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Miami Heat have a series record of 11-4 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 7-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 1-8 (with the sole win occurring in the last such series - series 1236, in the 2014 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 4 record of 7-2. Miami trailed Indiana 21-pts-14 after the first quarter of series 1248 Game 3: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games prior to series 1248 Game 3, home teams trailing by seven points after one quarter had a 29-30 game record.

After Game 2: The Miami Heat visited and defeated the Indiana Pacers 87-pts-83 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1248 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 7-7 and a Game 3 record of 9-5, while the Miami Heat have a series record of 9-4 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 10-3. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams such as the Indiana Pacers which win Game 1 by 11 points but lose Game 2 by four (irrespective of site) have a series record of 0-3 (series 345 San Antonio Spurs lost to Washington Bullets in the 1978 Quarterfinals; series 519 Denver Nuggets lost to Dallas Mavericks in the 1988 Quarterfinals; series 1184 Oklahoma City Thunder lost to Miami Heat in the 2012 Finals).

After Game 1: The Indiana Pacers hosted and bested the Miami Heat 107-pts-96 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1248 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 10-2 and a Game 2 record of 7-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Miami Heat have a series record of 7-6 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 8-5 (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, home teams which win Game 1 by 11 points (such as the Indiana Pacers) have an 18-4 (.818) series record; the last team to win a series in this situation was the Miami Heat in the 2014 NBA Preliminary round (in series 1237, against the Charlotte Bobcats).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2013-14 NBA regular season, the Indiana Pacers finished two games ahead of the Miami Heat. From 1947 through the 2014 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-11 (.645) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1248 is the 27th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Indiana Pacers, and the 30th for the Miami Heat. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Indiana Pacers have an all-rounds series record of 14-12, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-6, and a Game 1 record of 12-14 (with an active three-Game 1 losing streak), while the Miami Heat have an all-rounds series record of 21-8 (with an active ten-series winning streak befitting a two-time defending NBA champion), a Semifinals-round series record of 4-2 (with an active four-Semifinals series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 16-13. Series 1248 is the fourth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat. Miami won two of the three previous meetings in best-of-7 NBA playoff series between the two teams.