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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2014 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1252.
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals

Schedule and 2014 Results
Regular Season Records: St. Louis 90-72, San Francisco 88-74
Game 1 on Saturday, 11 October: San Francisco wins at St. Louis, 3-runs-nil
Game 2 on Sunday, 12 October: San Francisco loses at St. Louis, 5-runs-4
Game 3 on Tuesday, 14 October: St. Louis loses at San Francisco, 5-runs-4 (10 innings)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 15 October: St. Louis loses at San Francisco, 6-runs-4
Game 5 on Thursday, 16 October: St. Louis loses at San Francisco, 6-runs-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The San Francisco Giants hosted and bested the St. Louis Cardinals 6-runs-3 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1252 victory. With the series 1252 win, the San Francisco Giants improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 7-4 overall and 5-1 (with an active five-series winning streak) in the Semifinals round. With the series 1252 loss, the St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 17-14 overall and 6-6 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious San Francisco Giants in series 1252 was WLWWW: Series 1252 thus becomes the sixth MLB Semifinals-round series, the 16th MLB series (all rounds), and the 77th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Giants in San Francisco trailed St. Louis by one run after 7.5 innings, but rallied to win series 1252 Game 5. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games prior to series 1252 Game 5, home teams down a run after 7.5 innings had only a 33-84 (.282) game record. In series 871, the St. Louis Cardinals led the Giants in San Francisco 1-run-nil after 7.5 innings of 2002 National League Championship Series Game 5, but lost 2-runs-1 and 4-games-1 to the Giants. A dozen years later, the scenario replays itself. The San Francisco Giants advance to series 1253, in which they meet the Kansas City Royals in the 2014 MLB Finals.

After Game 4: The San Francisco Giants hosted and bested the St. Louis Cardinals 6-runs-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1252 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the San Francisco Giants have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 5 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 5 record of 1-3. San Francisco trailed St. Louis at home after 2.5 innings by three runs (4-runs-1). In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games, home teams trailing by three runs after 2.5 innings had a game record of only 12-39 (.235). The last home team to trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff game by three runs after 2.5 innings but win the game: The St. Louis Cardinals, in series 989 Game 4 over the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 MLB Finals. Ten years ago, in series 937 Game 4 (in the 2004 National League Championship Series), the St. Louis Cardinals led the Astros in Houston 4-runs-1 after 2.5 innings, but lost 6-runs-5 in the most recent occurrence of a three-run road lead after 2.5 innings in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals game that resulted in a home team victory.

After Game 3: The San Francisco Giants hosted and bested the St. Louis Cardinals 5-runs-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1252 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Francisco Giants have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 4 record of 4-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 4-6 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 6-4 (with an active three-Game 4 losing streak). The San Francisco Giants scored four runs in the first inning of series 1252 Game 3, and then not another run until extra innings. In only one previous best-of-7 format MLB game had a team scored four runs in the first inning and then no more runs in regulation: In series 1153 Game 3, the St. Louis Cardinals did so, at home against the Milwaukee Brewers in their 2011 MLB Semifinals series.

After Game 2: The St. Louis Cardinals hosted and outscored the San Francisco Giants 5-runs-4 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1252 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 14-6 and a Game 3 record of 15-5 (with an active six-Game 3 winning streak), while the San Francisco Giants have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 3 record of 2-4. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the St. Louis Cardinals which lose Game 1 by three runs and win Game 2 by one run have a 4-0 series record and a 3-1 Game 3 record; one of the three teams to win both Game 3 and the series in this situation was the St. Louis Cardinals in series 43 (the 1942 MLB Finals).

After Game 1: The San Francisco Giants visited and shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 3-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1252 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Francisco Giants have a series record of 5-1 (with an active three-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 9-9 and a Game 2 record of 11-7. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams (such as San Francisco in series 1252) which pitch a Game 1 shutout on the road have a 3-7 (.300) series record, with an active five-series losing streak. Series 1252 Game 1 becomes the third best-of-7 format MLB playoff game in which a team totaled three runs with two in the second inning and one in the third (the others: series 575 Game 3 (by the Oakland Athletics in the 1990 MLB Finals), and series 1153 Game 3 (by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2011 MLB Semifinals)).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2014 MLB regular season, the St. Louis Cardinals finished two games ahead of the San Francisco Giants. From 1905 through the 2013 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 6-6 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1252 is the 31st best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the St. Louis Cardinals, and the 11th for the San Francisco Giants. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the St. Louis Cardinals have an all-rounds series record of 17-13, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-5, and a Game 1 record of 12-18, while the San Francisco Giants have an all-rounds series record of 6-4 (with an active four-series winning streak), a Semifinals-round series record of 4-1 (with an active four-Semifinals series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 6-4. Series 1252 is the fourth best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants. St. Louis defeated San Francisco in seven games in series 499 (in the 1987 MLB Semifinals); San Francisco defeated St. Louis in five games in series 871 (2002 MLB Semifinals) and in seven games in series 1186 (2012 MLB Semifinals).