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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2013 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1196.
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Schedule and 2012-13 Results
Regular Season Records: Pittsburgh 36-12-0=72pts, Ottawa 25-17-6=56pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 14 May: Ottawa loses at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-1
Game 2 on Friday, 17 May: Ottawa loses at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-3
Game 3 on Sunday, 19 May: Pittsburgh loses at Ottawa, 2-goals-1 (2OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 22 May: Pittsburgh wins at Ottawa, 7-goals-3
Game 5 on Friday, 24 May: Ottawa loses at Pittsburgh, 6-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 6-goals-2 to achieve a 4-games-1 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196. With the series 1196 win, the Pittsburgh Penguins improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 28-19 overall and 8-9 in the Quarterfinals. With the series 1196 loss, the best-of-7 NHL playoff series record of the Ottawa Senators falls to 9-14 overall and 2-4 in the Quarterfinals. The win order for the victorious Pittsburgh Penguins in series 1196 was WWLWW: Series 1196 thus becomes the 14th NHL Quarterfinals series, the 41st NHL series (all rounds), and the 107th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Next to the WWWW four-game sweep, the WWLWW win order is the most common win order in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series. The Pittsburgh Penguins totaled 22 goals in series 1196. Those 22 goals are the most by one team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series lasting five games since series 957, in which the Ottawa Senators (ironically) tallied a total of 23 goals against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their 2006 NHL Preliminary-round series.

After Game 4: The Pittsburgh Penguins visited and defeated the Ottawa Senators 7-goals-3 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have an 8-2 series record (having lost the first and last such series) and a 6-4 Game 5 record (with an active three-Game 5 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a 0-5 series record and a 2-3 Game 5 record. The seven goals by the Pittsburgh Penguins in Ottawa are the most by a road team in an NHL playoff game since Pittsburgh scored ten in Philadelphia against the Flyers, in series 1158 Game 4 (in the 2012 NHL Preliminary round).

After Game 3: Tying the game with 29 seconds left in regulation and winning it 7:39 into the second overtime period, the Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-goals-1 to narrow the Pittsburgh MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 9-6 series record and a 5-10 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a 0-8 series record and a 4-4 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2012, inclusive, home teams (such as Ottawa in series 1196 Game 3) trailing by a goal with 30 seconds left in regulation had a game record of 8-395 (.020), and home teams 7:38 into a second overtime period had a game record of 26-46 (.361).

After Game 2: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-goals-3 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 12-2 series record (with an active six-series winning streak) and an 11-3 Game 3 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a 0-7 series record and a 3-4 Game 3 record. Only one previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series began with a 4-goals-1 Game 1 win and a 4-goals-3 Game 2 win that series was series 638, in which the Montreal Canadiens opened up with 4-goals-1 and 4-goals-3 victories over the New York Islanders in their 1993 Semifinals series (Montreal would win that series in five games and then win the 1993 NHL championship).

After Game 1: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 15-7 series record and a 14-8 Game 2 record (with an active three-Game 2 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a 2-9 series record (with an active four-series losing streak) and a 4-7 Game 2 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, home teams such as Pittsburgh which win Game 1 by a 4-goals-1 score have a 25-7 (.781) series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2012-13 NHL regular season, Pittsburgh finished 16 points ahead of Ottawa. From 1939 through the 2013 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 16 regular-season points, they have posted a 9-2 (.818) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1196 is the 23rd best-of-7 playoff series for Ottawa, and the 47th for Pittsburgh. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Ottawa has a 9-13 series record, a 2-3 Quarterfinals-round series record, and an 11-11 Game 1 record, while Pittsburgh has a 27-19 series record, a 7-9 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 22-24 Game 1 record. Series 1196 is the fourth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between Ottawa and Pittsburgh (Ottawa won their 2007 NHL Preliminary-round series; Pittsburgh won their 2008 and 2010 NHL Preliminary-round series).