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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2013 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1193.
Detroit Red Wings vs Anaheim Ducks

Schedule and 2012-13 Results
Regular Season Records: Anaheim 30-12-6=66pts, Detroit 24-16-8=56pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 30 April: Detroit loses at Anaheim, 3-goals-1
Game 2 on Thursday, 02 May: Detroit wins at Anaheim, 5-goals-4 (OT)
Game 3 on Saturday, 04 May: Anaheim wins at Detroit, 4-goals-nil
Game 4 on Monday, 06 May: Anaheim loses at Detroit, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 5 on Wednesday, 08 May: Detroit loses at Anaheim, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 6 on Friday, 10 May: Anaheim loses at Detroit, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 7 on Sunday, 12 May: Detroit wins at Anaheim, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Detroit Red Wings visited and defeated the Anaheim Ducks 3-goals-2 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193, 4-games-3. With the series 1193 win, the Detroit Red Wings improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 55-41 overall and 17-8 in the Preliminary-round (the 17 best-of-7 Preliminary-round series wins are an NBA/NHL Preliminary-round best). With the series 1193 loss, the Anaheim Ducks see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 5-4 overall (with an active three-series losing streak) and 2-3 in the Preliminary-round. The win order for the victorious Detroit Red Wings in series 1193 was LWLWLWW: Series 1193 thus becomes the third NHL Preliminary-round series, the 11th NHL series (all rounds), and the 19th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The first NHL team to win a best-of-7 playoff series LWLWLWW was the Detroit Red Wings in series 77, over the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1950 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 6: The Detroit Red Wings hosted and defeated the Anaheim Ducks 4-goals-3 in the first overtime period to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193 at 3-games-all. The NHL best-of-7 Game 7 record of the Anaheim Ducks is 0-1 (with the sole loss to the Red Wings in Detroit in series 1066, in the 2009 NHL Quarterfinals); that of the Detroit Red Wings is 13-9 irrespective of site and 2-4 on road ice. Anaheim trailed series 1193 Game 6 by two goals as late as 16:31 into the third period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2012, inclusive, 444 games had the home team leading by two goals 16:31 into the third period; only three of those games went into overtime – in one of those three did the road team complete the comeback with an overtime victory (the Philadelphia Flyers, in Toronto against the Maple Leafs in Game 4 of their 1977 NHL Quarterfinals series).

After Game 5: The Anaheim Ducks hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-2 in the first overtime period to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Anaheim Ducks have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 6 record of 2-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 7-16 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 11-12.

After Game 4: On a goal 15:10 into the first overtime period, the Detroit Red Wings hosted and defeated the Anaheim Ducks 3-goals-2 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Anaheim Ducks have a 1-2 series record and a 1-2 Game 5 record, while the Detroit Red Wings have a 21-14 series record and a 19-16 Game 5 record with an active four-Game 5 winning streak. Detroit trailed by one goal against Anaheim at home as late as 13:26 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2012, inclusive, home teams down a goal as late as 13:26 into the third period had a game record of 71-427 (.143).

After Game 3: The Anaheim Ducks visited and shut out the Detroit Red Wings 4-goals-nil to take a 2-games-1 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Anaheim Ducks have a 3-1 series record and a 3-1 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a 12-19 series record and a 15-16 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: Having lost a 4-goals-1 lead, the Detroit Red Wings needed a goal at 1:21 into the first overtime period to defeat the Ducks in Anaheim 5-goals-4. Detroit thus knots MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Detroit Red Wings have a 20-17 series record and a 17-20 Game 3 record, while the Anaheim Ducks have a 2-2 series record and a 2-2 Game 3 record. Anaheim trailed 4-goals-1 as late as 7:49 into the third period: Series 1193 Game 2 is thus the first best-of-7 NHL playoff game in which a home team trailed by three goals 7:49 into the third period, forced overtime, and then lost the game in overtime; in the six previous best-of-7 NHL playoff games in which a home team trailed by three goals 7:49 into the third period but forced overtime, the home team completed the comeback by winning in overtime (series 50 Game 4 – the Montreal Canadiens over the Chicago Blackhawks to win the 1944 Stanley Cup; series 192 Game 4 – the St. Louis Blues over the Minnesota North Stars in the 1968 Semifinals; series 464 Game 6 – the St. Louis Blues over the Calgary Flames in the 1986 Semifinals; series 504 Game 4 – the Philadelphia Flyers over the Washington Capitals in the 1988 Preliminary round; series 728 Game 3 – the Edmonton Oilers over the Dallas Stars in the 1997 Preliminary round; series 828 Game 4 – the Los Angeles Kings over the Detroit Red Wings in the 2001 Preliminary round).

After Game 1: The Anaheim Ducks hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Anaheim Ducks have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 2 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 16-27 (with an active three-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 21-22. On the opening night of the 2013 NHL playoffs, series 1193 Game 1 was the only game (of the three played) to be decided in regulation.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2012-13 NHL regular season, Anaheim finished ten points ahead of Detroit. From 1939 through the 2012 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by ten regular-season points, they have posted a 10-8 (.556) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1193 is the 96th best-of-7 playoff series for Detroit, and the ninth for Anaheim (as just the “Ducks”). In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Detroit has a 54-41 series record, a 16-8 Preliminary-round series record, and a 52-43 Game 1 record, while Anaheim has a 5-3 series record, a 2-2 Preliminary-round series record, and a 6-2 Game 1 record (with an active three-Game 1 winning streak). Series 1193 is the third best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between Detroit and the Anaheim Ducks; the teams split the first two such series.