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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2013 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1189.
Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens

Schedule and 2012-13 Results
Regular Season Records: Montreal 29-14-5=63pts, Ottawa 25-17-6=56pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 02 May: Ottawa wins at Montreal, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 03 May: Ottawa loses at Montreal, 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Sunday, 05 May: Montreal loses at Ottawa, 6-goals-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 07 May: Montreal loses at Ottawa, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 5 on Thursday, 09 May: Ottawa wins at Montreal, 6-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Ottawa Senators visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 6-goals-1 to achieve a 4-games-1 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189. With the series 1189 win, the Ottawa Senators improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 9-13 overall and 6-8 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1189 loss, the Montreal Canadiens see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 74-38 overall (with an active three-series losing streak), and 12-7 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Ottawa Senators in series 1189 was WLWWW: Series 1189 thus becomes the tenth NHL Preliminary-round series, the 36th NHL series (all rounds), and the 75th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. After series 1189, the Montreal Canadiens have an MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7-leading 361 game victories, and 250 best-of-7 NHL playoff game losses.

After Game 4: The Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2 in overtime to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189. When leading 3-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Ottawa Senators have a 7-0 series record and a 6-1 Game 5 record (with an active six-Game 5 winning streak). When trailing 3-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Montreal Canadiens have a 2-14 series record and a 7-9 Game 5 record. Ottawa trailed Montreal by two goals with as much as 11:54 elapsed in the third period, and by one goal with as little as 24 seconds left in regulation. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2012, inclusive, home teams such as Ottawa which trailed by two goals 11:54 into the third period had a game record of 7-313 (.022), and home teams which trailed by a goal with only 24 seconds left in regulation had a game record of 7-386 (.018).

After Game 3: The Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 6-goals-1 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189. When leading 2-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Ottawa Senators have a 7-1 series record (with an active five-series winning streak) and a 6-2 Game 4 record (with an active three-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing 2-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Montreal Canadiens have a 7-17 series record and a 13-11 Game 4 record. Ottawa scored consecutive goals eight seconds apart in series 1189 Game 3 the fastest consecutive goals by one team since series 1122 Game 4, in which the host New York Rangers tallied twice in a seven-second span against the Washington Capitals in the 2011 Preliminary round.

After Game 2: The Montreal Canadiens hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 3-goals-1 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Montreal Canadiens have a 21-16 series record and a 24-13 Game 3 record with a three-Game 3 losing streak, while the Ottawa Senators have a 7-6 series record and an 8-5 Game 3 record.

After Game 1: Tallying thrice in the third, the Ottawa Senators visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a 6-4 series record and a 1-9 Game 2 record; when trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a 16-26 series record and a 21-21 Game 2 record. Ottawa trailed by one goal as late as 43:26 into the game: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2012, inclusive, road teams down one goal 3:26 into the third period had a 121-512 (.191) game record. The series 1189 Game 1 loss by Montreal is the 247th best-of-7 NHL playoff game loss; only the Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins (249 each) have more best-of-7 playoff game losses (the Los Angeles Lakers lead in best-of-7 NBA playoff game losses with 228; the New York Yankees lead in best-of-7 MLB playoff game losses with 109). The bane of storied franchises.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2012-13 NHL regular season, Montreal finished seven points ahead of Ottawa. From 1939 through the 2012 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season points, they have posted a 16-9 (.640) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1189 is the 22nd best-of-7 playoff series for Ottawa, and the 112th for Montreal. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Ottawa has a 8-13 series record (with an active four-series losing streak), a 5-8 Preliminary-round series record (with an active three-series losing streak), and a 10-11 Game 1 record, while Montreal has a 74-37 series record, a 12-6 Preliminary-round series record, and a 69-42 Game 1 record. Series 1189 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between Ottawa and Montreal.