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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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2013 NBA Finals round - Series 1217.
San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat

Schedule and 2012-13 Results
Regular Season Records: Miami 66-16, San Antonio 58-24
Game 1 on Thursday, 06 June: San Antonio wins at Miami, 92-pts-88
Game 2 on Sunday, 09 June: San Antonio loses at Miami, 103-pts-84
Game 3 on Tuesday, 11 June: Miami loses at San Antonio, 113-pts-77
Game 4 on Thursday, 13 June: Miami wins at San Antonio, 109-pts-93
Game 5 on Sunday, 16 June: Miami loses at San Antonio, 114-pts-104
Game 6 on Tuesday, 18 June: San Antonio loses at Miami, 103-pts-100 (OT)
Game 7 on Thursday, 20 June: San Antonio loses at Miami, 95-pts-88

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Miami Heat hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 95-pts-88 for a 4-games-3 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217 and the 2013 NBA championship. With the series 1217 win, the Miami Heat improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 19-8 overall (with an eight-series winning streak defining a repeat champion) and 3-1 in the Finals. With the series 1217 loss, the San Antonio Spurs see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 30-20 overall and 4-1 in the Finals. The win order for the victorious Miami Heat in series 1217 was LWLWLWW: Series 1217 thus becomes the second NBA Finals, the fifth NBA series (all rounds), and the 20th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. San Antonio had had the second-best MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 Finals round series record at 4-0, second only to the Chicago Bulls (6-0 in best-of-7 NBA Finals series); with the series 1217 loss, their 4-1 best-of-7 NBA Finals series record is tied with the NHL New York Islanders for 15th-best. With a 3-1 best-of-7 NBA Finals series record, the Miami Heat are now tied with the MLB Chicago White Sox and the NHL Pittsburgh Penguins for the 17th-best best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round series record. San Antonio outscored Miami 684-pts-679 in the 2013 NBA Finals, thus making series 1217 the first NBA Finals series since the 2005 NBA Finals (in which San Antonio defeated Detroit but was outscored by Detroit 607-pts-594) in which the winning team was outscored in the aggregate. The 2013 Miami Heat perfectly emulated the 2004 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning in Semifinals and Finals win orders (WLWLWLW in the Semifinals; LWLWLWW in the Finals); the 2013 Heat and 2004 Lightning now share the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff game record for most consecutive games without a repeat outcome (12 consecutive games).

After Game 6: The Miami Heat hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 103-pts-100 in the first overtime period to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217 at 3-games-all. The best-of-7 NBA playoffs Game 7 record (all rounds) for the Miami Heat is 4-3 overall and 4-2 at home, while that for the San Antonio Spurs is 3-4 overall and 1-2 on the road. Irrespective of win/site order, home teams in best-of-7 NBA playoff series have a Game 7 record of 90-23 (.797) overall and 14-3 (.824) in the Finals (with an active five-Game 7 winning streak in the Finals). Of the 90 home-court Game 7 NBA wins, the last two were recorded by the Miami Heat, in the 2013 Semifinals and in the 2012 Semifinals. The three home-court NBA Finals Game 7 losses were sustained by the 1969 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1974 Milwaukee Bucks, and the 1978 Seattle Supersonics. The host Miami Heat trailed San Antonio by ten points after three quarters of series 1217 Game 6. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams down ten points after three quarters had only a 1-36 (.027) game record, with the Atlanta Hawks in series 1038 achieving the only previous win (in Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Preliminary round, over the Boston Celtics in Atlanta). With the series 1217 Game 6 win, the 2013 Miami Heat tie the 2004 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning for the most consecutive best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff games without a repeated outcome 12 consecutive games. Tampa Bay broke its streak by winning Game 7 of the 2004 NHL Finals; nine years later, their fellow Floridians hope to do likewise in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals.

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 114-pts-104 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a 12-1 series record (with an active 11-series winning streak) and a 10-3 Game 6 record (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a 2-3 series record and a 3-2 Game 6 record. The sole San Antonio series loss in the wake of a 3-games-2 lead in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series occurred in series 363, to the old Washington Bullets in the 1979 NBA Semifinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams such as San Antonio which post a win/site order of WLWLW @ VVHHH through five games have a 2-4 series record. In only one of those six series the most recent did such a team win Game 6 to win the series: In series 746, the old Florida Marlins (now the Miami Marlins) did so against the Atlanta Braves in the 1997 MLB Semifinals. So it is that a Miami-area team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 San Antonio Spurs against the 2013 Miami Heat. Since the start of the 2013 NBA Semifinals, the Miami Heat have posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWL eleven consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series history, the longest streak of consecutive best-of-7 playoff games without a repeated outcome is twelve, set by the NHL Tampa Bay Lighting in series 918 (the 2004 NHL Semifinals Games 2-7) and series 920 (the 2004 NHL Finals Games 1-6). Beginning with series 918 Game 1, Tampa posted a win order of WLWLWLWLWLWLW before breaking the streak with a 2004 NHL Finals Game 7 victory for the 2004 NHL championship. So it is that another Florida team sets a favorable precedent for the 2013 Miami Heat.

After Game 4: The Miami Heat visited and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 109-pts-93 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Miami Heat have a 6-5 series record (with an active three-series winning streak) and a 7-4 Game 5 record, while the San Antonio Spurs have a 9-6 series record and an 8-7 Game 5 record. Tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a 7-1 Game 6 record and an 8-0 series record upon winning Game 5, and a 1-6 series record upon losing Game 5. Teams such as the Miami Heat which begin a best-of-7 NBA Finals series with a LWLW win order irrespective of site have only a 4-13 series record, but the last team to do so in the NBA Finals (the Dallas Mavericks in 2011) won the series in six games . . . against the Miami Heat. So it is that the 2011 Dallas Mavericks offer a favorable precedent to the 2013 Miami Heat, through their defeat of the 2011 Miami Heat.

After Game 3: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 113-pts-77 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a 17-3 series record and a 10-10 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Miami Heat have a 3-1 series record and a 3-1 Game 4 record (with an active three-Game 4 winning streak). The 36-point victory by the San Antonio Spurs over the Miami Heat was the third-largest margin of victory in best-of-7 NBA Finals history, next only to a 42-point victory by the Chicago Bulls over the Utah Jazz in 1998 NBA Finals Game 3 (in series 769), and to a 39-point victory by the Boston Celtics over the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008 NBA Finals Game 6 (in series 1052).

After Game 2: The Miami Heat hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 103-pts-84 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a 9-9 series record and a 10-8 Game 3 record, while the Miami Heat have an 8-4 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a 10-2 Game 3 record (with an active 3-Game 3 winning streak).

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs visited and defeated the Miami Heat 92-pts-88 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a 24-5 series record (with an active three-series winning streak) and a 22-7 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Miami Heat have a 6-6 series record (with an active three-series winning streak) and a 7-5 Game 2 record (with an active three-Game 2 winning streak). The road Game 1 win by San Antonio is the first road Game 1 win in the NBA Finals since 2004, when the Detroit Pistons defeated the Lakers in Los Angeles en route to the 2004 NBA championship.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2012-13 NBA regular season, Miami finished eight games ahead of San Antonio. From 1947 through the 2013 NBA Semifinals round, inclusive, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season games, they have posted a 19-6 (.760) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. The last team to lead a best-of-7 NBA Finals foe by eight regular-season games and win the NBA Finals: The San Antonio Spurs (58-24 in the 2007 regular season), in a four-game sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32 in the 2007 regular season) in the 2007 NBA Finals. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1217 is the 50th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for San Antonio, and the 27th for Miami. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, San Antonio has a 30-19 series record, a 4-0 Finals-round series record, and a 29-20 Game 1 record, while Miami has a 18-8 series record (with an active seven-series winning streak befitting a defending champion), a 2-1 Finals-round record, and a 14-12 Game 1 record. Series 1217 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat.