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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2012 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1160.
San Jose Sharks vs St. Louis Blues

Schedule and 2011-12 Results
Regular Season Records: St. Louis 49-22-11=109pts, San Jose 43-29-10=96pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 12 April: San Jose wins at St. Louis, 3-goals-2 (2OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: San Jose loses at St. Louis, 3-goals-nil
Game 3 on Monday, 16 April: St. Louis wins at San Jose, 4-goals-3
Game 4 on Thursday, 19 April: St. Louis wins at San Jose, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 21 April: San Jose loses at St. Louis, 3-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1160 back in Missouri for Game 5, the host St. Louis Blues defeated the San Jose Sharks 3-goals-1 for a 4-games-1 series 1160 victory. The series 1160 victory improves the St. Louis Blues’ best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 20-30 overall and 11-9 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1160 loss, the San Jose Sharks see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 13-15 overall and 10-5 in the Preliminary round. The win order in series 1160 for the victorious St. Louis Blues was LWWWW: Series 1160 thus becomes the eighth NHL Preliminary round series, the 30th NHL series (all rounds), and the 51st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow a LWWWW win order to completion. The best-of-7 NHL playoff series victory for the St. Louis Blues is their first since series 855, against the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2002 NHL Preliminary round; the win order for that series 855 victory was also LWWWW.

After Game 4: The St. Louis Blues visited and defeated the San Jose Sharks 2-goals-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1160. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a 6-1 series record and a 4-3 Game 5 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a 0-4 series record and a 2-2 Game 5 record. It is of interest that teams such as St. Louis which lose Game 1 but win Game 2 at home and then win Games 3-4 on the road have an overall best-of-7 NHL playoff series record of 27-6 (.818) but a best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round series record of only 7-5 (.583) – if there thus is a round in which to win Game 1 but lose Game 2 on the road and then lose Games 3-4 at home (as San Jose has in series 1160), the best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round is certainly it.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1160 having shifted to California, the visiting St. Louis Blues won their first road playoff game since series 880 Game 1 (a 6-goals-nil shutout of the Canucks in Vancouver to begin the 2003 NHL Preliminary round), defeating the San Jose Sharks 4-goals-3 for a 2-games-1 series 1160 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a 7-7 series record and a 5-9 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a 3-7 series record and a 7-3 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: Winning their first playoff game since MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 911 Game 3 against the San Jose Sharks in the 2004 NHL Preliminary round, the St. Louis Blues shut out same Sharks 3-goals-nil to tie series 1160 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 8-16 and a Game 3 record of 11-13 (with an active three-Game 3 winning streak), while the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 8-4 (with an active three-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 8-4.

After Game 1: Tying MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1160 Game 1 with 5:16 left in regulation and winning it 3:34 into the second overtime period, the visiting San Jose Sharks topped the St. Louis Blues 3-goals-2 for a 1-game-nil series 1160 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Jose Sharks have a 9-4 series record with an active three-series winning streak, and a 6-7 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Blues have a 3-21 series record with an active three-series losing streak, and a 9-15 Game 2 record with an active three-Game 2 losing streak. Series 1160 Game 1 was the first best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round Game 1 to reach double overtime since the 2007 NHL Preliminary round, when San Jose defeated the Predators in Nashville 8:14 into the second overtime period to open series 997, and when the Vancouver Canucks hosted and finally defeated the Dallas Stars 18:06 into the fourth overtime period to open series 996 (thereby rendering series 996 Game 1 the fourth-longest game in best-of-7 NHL playoff history). Series 1160 Game 1 constituted a minor upset for San Jose, which trailed on the road by one goal with as little as 5:17 left in regulation: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2011, inclusive, road teams down a goal with 5:17 left in regulation had a game record of only 45-517 (.080).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2011-12 regular season, St. Louis finished 13 points ahead of San Jose. From 1939 through 2011, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 13 regular-season points, they have posted an 11-9 (.550) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1160 is the 28th best-of-7 playoff series for San Jose, and the 50th for St. Louis. In best-of-7 playoff series, San Jose has a 13-14 series record, a 10-4 Preliminary-round series record, and a 13-14 Game 1 record, while St. Louis has a 19-30 series record, a 10-9 Preliminary-round series record, and a 25-24 Game 1 record. Series 1160 is the fourth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between San Jose and St. Louis; San Jose won two of their first three against St. Louis.