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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2012 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1158.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Schedule and 2011-12 Results
Regular Season Records: Pittsburgh 51-25-6=108pts, Philadelphia 47-26-9=103pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 11 April: Philadelphia wins at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 2 on Friday, 13 April: Philadelphia wins at Pittsburgh, 8-goals-5
Game 3 on Sunday, 15 April: Pittsburgh loses at Philadelphia, 8-goals-4
Game 4 on Wednesday, 18 April: Pittsburgh wins at Philadelphia, 10-goals-3
Game 5 on Friday, 20 April: Philadelphia loses at Pittsburgh, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Sunday, 22 April: Pittsburgh loses at Philadelphia, 5-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Philadelphia Flyers hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-2 victory in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158. With the series 1158 win, the Philadelphia Flyers improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 38-29 overall and 12-7 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1158 loss, the Pittsburgh Penguins see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record slip to 26-19 overall and 12-6 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Philadelphia Flyers in series 1158 was WWWLLW: Series 1158 thus becomes the third NHL Preliminary-round series, the ninth NHL series (all rounds), and the 18th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. The 30 goals by Philadelphia in series 1158 are the most by one team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series lasting six games since 1993, when the Los Angeles Kings scored 33 goals in series 633 vs. the Calgary Flames in the 1993 NHL Preliminary round. The 56 total goals by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in series 1158 are the most in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series lasting six games also since 1993, when the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames combined for 61 total goals in the 1993 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 5: Half-way to a comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit, the Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 3-goals-2 to reduce the Philadelphia MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 17-2 series record and an 11-8 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 6-6 series record and a 6-6 Game 6 record; i.e., Pittsburgh has by definition a 0-6 series record upon losing Game 6 when trailing 3-games-2, but a 6-0 series record upon winning Game 6 when trailing 3-games-2. Through five games of series 1158, the Pennsylvania teams have combined for 50 goals – fourth-most among best-of-7 NHL playoff series through five games, and the highest such total since the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings pooled 51 goals through the first five games of series 482, a quarter-century ago in the 1987 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 4: Staving off a four-game sweep, the Pittsburgh Penguins visited and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 10-goals-3 to cut the Philadelphia MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158 lead to 3-games-1. The ten road goals by Pittsburgh tie those of the Edmonton Oilers in series 415 Game 3 (in Calgary against the Flames in their 1983 NHL Quarterfinals series) for the most goals ever by a road team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 2-6 series record with an active five-series losing streak, and a 4-4 Game 5 record. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 19-2 series record with an active five-series winning streak, and a 14-7 Game 5 record with an active three-Game 5 winning streak. The 45 total goals by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in series 1158 Games 1-4 are the most total goals ever by both teams in Games 1-4 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, topping the old mark of 44 such goals in series 447 Games 1-4, which featured the Edmonton Oilers against the Chicago Blackhawks in the 1985 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158 having shifted to eastern Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Flyers hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 8-goals-4 to take a 3-games-nil series 1158 lead. So it is that the 2012 Pittsburgh Penguins become the 298th MLB/NBA/NHL team to face a three-games-nil deficit in a best-of-7 playoff series, and will attempt to become the fifth MLB/NBA/NHL to climb out of that hole to win the series 4-games-3. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 9-0 series record and a 3-6 Game 4 record with an active three-Game 4 losing streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 0-3 series record and a 1-2 Game 4 record. The twenty goals by Philadelphia in series 1158 Games 1-3 tie for the third-most goals in Games 1-3 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series by one team, and are the most since 21 goals in series 482 Games 1-3 by the Edmonton Oilers against the Los Angeles Kings in the 1987 Preliminary round. The 32 total goals by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in series 1158 Games 1-3 tie for the second-most total goals by both teams in Games 1-3 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series: In series 324 Games 1-3, the Boston Bruins and Los Angeles Kings also combined for 32 goals in 1977 NHL Quarterfinals Games 1-3; series 324 and series 1158 are next only to series 482 (34 total goals by Edmonton and Los Angeles in their 1987 Preliminary round series) in that regard.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Flyers visited and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 8-goals-5 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 17-0 series record and a 9-8 Game 3 record with an active three-Game 3 losing streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 5-5 series record and a 7-3 Game 3 record. The eight goals by Philadelphia are the most by a road team in the NHL Preliminary round since series 1125 Game 5 in 2011, in which the Tampa Bay Lightning also scored eight (also in Pittsburgh against the Penguins). Pittsburgh opened the series 1158 Game 2 scoring with a goal 15 seconds into the game; it was the earliest goal in an NHL Preliminary-round game since series 725 Game 5, in which the Philadelphia Flyers hosted Pittsburgh and scored 14 seconds into the game against the Penguins in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round. Philadelphia trailed Pittsburgh by two goals as late as 25:10 into series 1158 Game 2: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2011 inclusive, road teams down two goals as late as 25:10 into the game had a game record of 37-336 (.099).

After Game 1: Trailing by as many as three goals as late as the second period, the Philadelphia Flyers rallied to defeat the Penguins in Pittsburgh 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a 1-game-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 22-8 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a 17-13 Game 2 record; when trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 12-11 series record (with an active three-series winning streak) and a 13-10 Game 2 record. Philadelphia trailed by three goals as late as 6:21 into the second period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2011 inclusive, road teams down three goals 6:21 into the second period had only a 4-127 (.031) game record. Philadelphia trailed by two goals as late as 9:16 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2011 inclusive, road teams down two goals 9:16 into the third period had only a 5-412 (.012) game record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2011-12 regular season, Pittsburgh finished five points ahead of Philadelphia. From 1939 through 2011, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season points, they have posted a 25-11 (.694) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1158 is the 67th best-of-7 playoff series for Philadelphia, and the 45th for Pittsburgh. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has a 37-29 series record, an 11-7 Preliminary-round series record, and a 30-36 Game 1 record, while Pittsburgh has a 26-18 series record, a 12-5 Preliminary-round series record, and a 21-23 Game 1 record. Series 1158 is the sixth best-of-7 NHL "battle of Pennsylvania" meeting between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; Philadelphia won three of the previous five meetings.