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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2012 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1183.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2011-12 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 50-16, Oklahoma City 47-19
Game 1 on Sunday, 27 May: Oklahoma City loses at San Antonio, 101-pts-98
Game 2 on Tuesday, 29 May: Oklahoma City loses at San Antonio, 120-pts-111
Game 3 on Thursday, 31 May: San Antonio loses at Oklahoma City, 102-pts-82
Game 4 on Saturday, 02 June: San Antonio loses at Oklahoma City, 109-pts-103
Game 5 on Monday, 04 June: Oklahoma City wins at San Antonio, 108-pts-103
Game 6 on Wednesday, 06 June: San Antonio loses at Oklahoma City, 107-pts-99

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Trailing by 14 points after the first quarter and by 15 points at halftime, the Oklahoma City Thunder rallied to defeat the visiting San Antonio Spurs 107-pts-99 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183, 4-games-2. With the series 1183 win, the Oklahoma City Thunder improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 5-2 overall and 1-1 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1183 loss, the San Antonio Spurs’ best-of-7 NBA playoff series record falls to 27-19 overall and 4-7 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Oklahoma City Thunder in series 1183 was LLWWWW: Series 1183 thus becomes the third NBA Semifinals series, the eighth NBA series (all rounds), and the 32nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams down 14 points after the first quarter had a 1-9 (.100) game record prior to series 1183 Game 6; so it is that the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder join the 2007 Los Angeles Lakers (in series 1010 Game 3, hosting the Phoenix Suns in the Preliminary round) as the only other NBA home team to win a best-of-7 playoff game after having trailed by 14 points after the first quarter. The series 1183 Game 6 victory for the Thunder in Oklahoma City is their eighth straight home-court win; the longest best-of-7 NBA playoff home-court winning streak is 15 games, set by the Boston Celtics in series 162 Games 1, 2, and 5 (in the 1964 NBA Semifinals), series 164 Games 1, 2, and 5 (in the 1964 NBA Finals), series 169 Games 1, 3, 5, and 7 (in the 1965 NBA Semifinals), series 171 Games 1, 2, and 5 (in the 1965 NBA Finals), and series 176 Games 2 and 4 (in the 1966 NBA Semifinals). Oklahoma City thus advances to host (as of this writing) either the Boston Celtics or the Miami Heat in series 1184, the 2012 NBA Finals.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183 back in Texas for Game 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder notched the first road victory of the series with a 108-pts-103 win over the Spurs in San Antonio. The Thunder thus take a 3-games-2 series 1183 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 1-0 series record and a 0-1 Game 6 record (courtesy of series 1147, against the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2011 NBA Quarterfinals). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a 1-10 series record and a 4-7 Game 6 record (with the sole series win in series 1049, over the New Orleans Hornets in the 2008 NBA Quarterfinals). The MLB/NBA/NHL teams with the best best-of-7 playoff series records upon having led said series 3-games-2 are the NBA Dallas Mavericks and the NHL Dallas Stars – both with 8-0 (1.000) series records after having led 3-games-2. So it is that two Texas teams set the most favorable precedent for Oklahoma City in its battle against another Texas team.

After Game 4: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 109-pts-103 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183 at 2–games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 8-5 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 7-6, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 5 record of 1-1 (the Game 5 win preceded the series win; the Game 5 loss preceded the series loss).

After Game 3: With the 2012 NBA Western Conference Finals in the Sooner State for Games 3 and 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the San Antonio Spurs 102-pts-82 to narrow the San Antonio MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a 16-2 series record (with an active eight-series winning streak) and a 10-8 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 1-2 series record and a 2-1 Game 4 record. The twenty-point loss by San Antonio was the largest in an NBA Semifinals Game 3 by a team previously leading 2-games-nil since series 1018, when the same San Antonio Spurs lost 109-pts-83 to the Jazz in Utah in the 2007 NBA Semifinals. The loss ends the San Antonio winning streak from the start of the 2012 NBA playoffs at ten games – the longest such winning streak since the NBA adopted the best-of-7 format for its Preliminary round in 2003. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Spurs' only two series losses were to the Los Angeles Lakers (in series 932, in which the Spurs led 2-games-nil but lost Game 3 to the Lakers by 24 points in the 2004 NBA Quarterfinals) and to the Washington Bullets (in series 363, in the 1979 NBA Semifinals).

After Game 2: Leading by 16 points after three quarters, the San Antonio Spurs defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-pts-111 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have an 18-1 series record (with an active nine-series winning streak) and a 10-9 Game 3 record (with an active four-Game 3 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 0-1 series record and a 1-0 Game 3 record. The sole San Antonio loss in the wake of a 2-games-nil lead occurred in series 932, in which the Spurs lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2004 NBA Quarterfinals. The San Antonio Spurs now have a 10-0 game record in the 2012 NBA playoffs.

After Game 1: Trailing by nine points after three quarters, the San Antonio Spurs rallied to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder 101-pts-98 in San Antonio to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a 21-4 series record with an active six-series winning streak, and a 19-6 Game 2 record with an active five-Game 2 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 1-2 series record and a 2-1 Game 2 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams down by nine points after three quarters had a game record of only 7-40 (.149) prior to series 1183 Game 1. The San Antonio Spurs thus improve their 2012 NBA playoff game record to 9-0, becoming the first NBA team to begin a playoff season 9-0 since the NBA adopted the best-of-7 format for its Preliminary round in 2003.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2011-12 NBA regular season, the San Antonio Spurs finished three games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. From 1947 through the 2012 NBA Quarterfinals round, inclusive, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a 15-14 (.517) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1183 is the seventh best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Oklahoma City, and the 46th for San Antonio. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Oklahoma City has a 4-2 series record, a 0-1 Semifinals-round series record, and a 3-3 Game 1 record, while San Antonio has a 27-18 series record, a 4-6 Semifinals-round record, and a 25-20 Game 1 record. Series 1183 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Oklahoma City and San Antonio.