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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2011 NBA Finals round - Series 1151.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat

Schedule and 2010-11 Results
Regular Season Records: Miami 58-24, Dallas 57-25
Game 1 on Tuesday, 31 May: Dallas loses at Miami, 92-pts-84
Game 2 on Thursday, 02 June: Dallas wins at Miami, 95-pts-93
Game 3 on Sunday, 05 June: Miami wins at Dallas, 88-pts-86
Game 4 on Tuesday, 07 June: Miami loses at Dallas, 86-pts-83
Game 5 on Thursday, 09 June: Miami loses at Dallas, 112-pts-103
Game 6 on Sunday, 12 June: Dallas wins at Miami, 105-pts-95

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151 in South Florida for the duration, the Dallas Mavericks visited and defeated the Miami Heat 105-pts-95 to win the 2011 NBA Finals, 4-games-2. So it is that the Dallas Mavericks avenge their 2006 NBA Finals loss to the Miami Heat in series 986. With the series 1151 victory, the Dallas Mavericks win their first NBA championship, and improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 12-13 overall and 1-1 in the Finals; with the series 1151 loss, the Miami Heat see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record slip to 11-8 overall and 1-1 in the Finals. The victory order for the victorious Dallas Mavericks in series 1151 was LWLWWW: Series 1151 thus becomes the first NBA Finals series, the 11th NBA series (all rounds), and the 31st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion (series 1151 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series won by the Dallas Mavericks LWLWWW; the first was series 519, over the Denver Nuggets in the 1988 NBA Quarterfinals). With the series 1151 win, the NBA Dallas Mavericks tie the NHL Dallas Stars (in a stroke of geographical irony) for the best MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series record - a great 8-0 - upon leading 3-games-2. Series 1151 Game 6 constituted the most minor of upsets for the Dallas Mavericks, which led by two points at halftime: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series (all rounds), road teams with a two-point lead at halftime had only a 40-53 (.430) game record. The 2011 NBA playoff season lasted a total 81 games - the lowest number of playoff games in an NBA playoff season since the 79 games required to crown the San Antonio Spurs NBA champions (over the Cleveland Cavaliers in a four-game sweep) in 2007. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals series prior to series 1151, teams such as the 2011 Miami Heat which posted a WLW win order through a HHV site order had a 12-0 series record and only a 1-11 Game 4 record: True to form, Miami lost series 1151 Game 4 to drop that mark to 1-12, but then also lost Games 5-6 to become the first team in thirteen NBA Finals in that rather favorable situation to lose the series as well as Game 4 (the last NBA team in any round to lead a best-of-7 playoff series WLW @ HHV but lose it: The Cleveland Cavaliers, in the 2010 NBA Quarterfinals against the Boston Celtics in series 1112).

After Game 5: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 112-pts-103 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Mavericks have a perfect 7-0 overall series record, a 3-4 overall Game 6 record, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a 1-2 overall series record, a 2-1 overall Game 6 record, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 6 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA series (all in the Finals round, given the relevant site order), teams such as the Dallas Mavericks which have a 3-games-2 lead after five games with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-5 at home have a 4-4 Game 6 record and a 4-4 series record: Noteworthy is that the four teams which lost Game 6 also lost Game 7 to lose the Finals. The four teams that won Game 6 and thus the series by definition were the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1985 NBA Finals (series 455), the Chicago Bulls in the 1993 NBA Finals (series 647), the Bulls in the 1998 NBA Finals (series 769), and the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals (series 986); the four teams that lost Games 6-7 were the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons (series 105), the 1988 Detroit Pistons (series 522), the 1994 New York Knickerbockers (series 672), and the 2010 Boston Celtics (series 1118). So it is that the 2006 Miami Heat set a favorable precedent for the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, in the 2011 Mavericks' series against the 2011 Heat.

After Game 4: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 86-pts-83 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Dallas Mavericks have a 5-4 overall series record, a 5-4 overall Game 5 record, a 0-1 Finals series record, and a 0-1 Finals Game 5 record, while the Miami Heat have a 3-4 overall series record, a 5-2 overall Game 5 record, a 1-0 Finals series record, and a 1-0 Finals Game 5 record. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals, teams (such as Miami in series 1151) which win Game 1 but lose Game 2 at home, and win Game 3 but lose Game 4 on the road, have a 16-2 series record with an active 13-series winning streak. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals, teams such as the 2011 Miami Heat which post a WLW win order through a HHV site order see their Game 4 record fall to 1-12 with the Dallas win in series 1151 Game 4. The sum of the victory margins in the first four games of series 1151 is 8+2+2+3=15 points, which is tied for the second-smallest such sum in best-of-7 NBA Finals history (in series 110, the Philadelphia Warriors and Fort Wayne Pistons decided their first four games by 11 points in the 1956 NBA Finals; in series 215, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics decided their first four games also by 15 points in the 1969 NBA Finals). It is a measure of how competitive series 1151 has been to date. Paradoxically, then, in the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals, teams such as the Miami Heat which win Game 1 but lose Game 2 at home, and win Game 3 but lose Game 4 on the road have a perfect 11-0 series record.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151 in Texas for Games 3-5, the visiting Miami Heat eked out an 88-pts-86 victory over the Dallas Mavericks to take a 2-games-1 series 1151 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Miami Heat have a 6-3 overall series record, a 4-5 overall Game 4 record, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Mavericks have a 2-10 overall series record with an active four-series losing streak, a 5-7 overall Game 4 record, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals, teams such as the 2011 Miami Heat which post a WLW win order through a HHV site order have a 12-0 series record ... albeit only a 1-11 Game 4 record (the sole Game 4 winner: the Detroit Pistons, in Portland over the Trailblazers in series 572 [the 1990 NBA Finals]). The sum of the victory margins in the first three games of series 1151 is 8+2+2=12 points, which is the third-smallest such sum in best-of-7 NBA Finals history (in series 110, the Philadelphia Warriors and Fort Wayne Pistons decided their first three games by nine points in the 1956 NBA Finals; in series 275, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knickerbockers decided their first three games by 11 points in the 1973 NBA Finals). In only one previous best-of-7 NBA series (any round) were both Game 2 and Game 3 decided by two points or less each: That one previous series was series 792, involving the New York Knickerbockers and the Indiana Pacers in the 1999 NBA Semifinals.

After Game 2: Surmounting a fifteen-point deficit with as little as 6:20 left in the fourth quarter, the visiting Dallas Mavericks defeated the Miami Heat 95-pts-93 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Miami Heat have a 4-3 overall series record, a 6-1 overall Game 3 record with an active six-Game 3 winning streak, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 3 record, while the Dallas Mavericks have a 6-5 overall series record, a 5-6 overall Game 3 record, a 0-0 Finals series record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 3 record. Series 1151 Game 2 was only the ninth best-of-7 NBA playoff game (out of a total of 2403) to be tied after both the first and second quarters.

After Game 1: The Miami Heat hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 92-pts-84 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Miami Heat have a 7-1 overall series record with an active seven-series winning streak, a 6-2 overall Game 2 record, a 0-0 Finals record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series record 1-game-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a 5-10 overall series record with an active three-series losing streak, a 7-8 overall Game 2 record, a 0-0 Finals record, and a 0-0 Finals Game 2 record. The last team to win NBA Finals Game 1 but lose the series: The Dallas Mavericks, against the Miami Heat in 2006 (in series 986).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2010-11 regular season, Miami finished one game ahead of Dallas. From 1947 through the 2011 NBA Semifinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season game, they have posted a 16-17 (.485) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1151 is the 25th best-of-7 playoff series for the Dallas Mavericks, and the 19th for the Miami Heat. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Dallas has a 11-13 overall series record, a 0-1 Finals-round series record, and a 9-15 Game 1 record, while Miami has an 11-7 overall series record, a 1-0 Finals-round record, and a 8-10 Game 1 record. Series 1151 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Dallas and Miami; the first was series 986, in which Miami lost Games 1-2 in Dallas but won Games 3-6 to take the 2006 NBA championship. Five years later, Dallas has its rematch in the second NBA Finals appearance for each team.