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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2011 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1150.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

Schedule and 2010-11 Results
Regular Season Records: Dallas 57-25, Oklahoma City 55-27
Game 1 on Tuesday, 17 May: Oklahoma City loses at Dallas, 121-pts-112
Game 2 on Thursday, 19 May: Oklahoma City wins at Dallas, 106-pts-100
Game 3 on Saturday, 21 May: Dallas wins at Oklahoma City, 93-pts-87
Game 4 on Monday, 23 May: Dallas wins at Oklahoma City, 112-pts-105 (OT)
Game 5 on Wednesday, 25 May: Oklahoma City loses at Dallas, 100-pts-96

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: Despite trailing for most of the game, the host Dallas Mavericks staged a strong fourth quarter to defeat the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder 100-pts-96, thereby winning MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150, 4-games-1. With the series 1150 win, the Dallas Mavericks improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 11-13 overall and 2-2 in the NBA Semifinals. With the series 1150 loss, the Oklahoma City Thunder see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the NBA Semifinals. The win order for the victorious Dallas Mavericks in series 1150 was WLWWW: Series 1150 thus becomes the fifth NBA Semifinals series, the 24th NBA series (all rounds), and the 73rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Ironically, the last NBA team to win a best-of-7 playoff series via a WLWWW win order was also the Dallas Mavericks, in series 1077 over the San Antonio Spurs in the 2009 NBA Preliminary round. The WLWWW win order is a historic one in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL history, insofar as the first best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series - the 1905 MLB World Series - also followed this win order to completion (as achieved by the victorious New York Giants over the vanquished Philadelphia Athletics). With the Dallas series 1150 win, NBA teams (all rounds) leading a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road now have a formidable series record of 127-1 (.992).

After Game 4: Trailing by nine points after the first quarter, the Dallas Mavericks rallied to defeat the Thunder in Oklahoma city 112-pts-105 after one overtime period. Dallas now leads Oklahoma City in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150, 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Mavericks have a 3-0 overall series record, a 0-0 Semifinals-round series record, a 1-2 overall Game 5 record, and a 0-0 Semifinals-round Game 5 record. The Oklahoma City Thunder face a 3-games-1 deficit for the first time; the Thunder predecessor franchise, the Seattle Supersonics, had a 0-7 overall series record and a 3-4 overall Game 5 record when down 3-games-1 in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, road teams down nine points after one quarter had a 9-56 (.138) game record.

After Game 3: The visiting Dallas Mavericks, leading by 15 points after the first quarter, defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 93-pts-87 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Mavericks have an overall 5-1 series record, a Semifinals-round 1-0 series record, an overall 2-4 Game 4 record, and a Semifinals Game 4 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an overall series record of 1-1, a Semifinals series record of 0-0, an overall Game 4 record of 2-0, and a Semifinals Game 4 record of 0-0. The last road team in the NBA Semifinals to hold a 15+ point lead after one quarter was the Sacramento Kings, which led the Lakers in Los Angeles 40-pts-20 in series 868 Game 4 - Sacramento would lose that game 100-pts-99 in the 2002 NBA Semifinals. NBA teams with a win/site order of WLW @ HHV (as Dallas has in series 1150) have an 8-1 series record in best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series: The sole team to lose a Semifinals series after posting a WLW @ HHV win/site order through three games was the 1976 Golden State Warriors (to the Phoenix Suns in series 319) - the 1976 Phoenix Suns thus set the sole favorable Semifinals-round precedent for the 2011 Oklahoma City Thunder.

After Game 2: Tying MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150 at 1-game-all, the Oklahoma City Thunder visited and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 106-pts-100 in series 1150 Game 2. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an overall 1-0 series record, a 0-0 Semifinals series record, an overall 0-1 Game 3 record, and a 0-0 Semifinals Game 3 record, while the Dallas Mavericks have an overall 5-5 series record, a 1-1 Semifinals series record, an overall 4-6 Game 3 record, and a 1-1 Semifinals Game 3 record. For the first time in the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals-round series, both 2011 NBA Semifinals series (series 1149 and 1150) have followed a win/site order of WL @ HH through the first two games.

After Game 1: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-pts-112 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150. When the Dallas Mavericks lead a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, they have an overall 5-3 series record, a 0-1 Semifinals series record, an overall 5-3 Game 2 record, and a 0-1 Semifinals Game 2 record. When the Oklahoma City Thunder trail a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, they have an overall 1-1 series record, a 0-0 Semifinals series record, an overall 1-1 Game 2 record, and a 0-0 Semifinals Game 2 record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2010-11 regular season, the Dallas Mavericks finished two games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. From 1947 through the 2011 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a 17-11 (.607) best-of-7 NBA playoff series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1150 is the fourth best-of-7 playoff series for Oklahoma City, and the 24th for Dallas. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Oklahoma City has a 2-1 series record, a 0-0 Semifinals-round series record, and a 1-2 Game 1 record, while Dallas has a 10-13 series record, a 1-2 Semifinals-round record, and an 8-15 Game 1 record. Series 1150 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Oklahoma City and Dallas.