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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2010 NHL Finals round - Series 1103.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Chicago Blackhawks

Schedule and 2009-10 Results
Regular Season Records: Chicago 52-22-8=112pts, Philadelphia 41-35-6=88pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 29 May: Philadelphia loses at Chicago, 6-goals-5
Game 2 on Monday, 31 May: Philadelphia loses at Chicago, 2-goals-1
Game 3 on Wednesday, 02 June: Chicago loses at Philadelphia, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 4 on Friday, 04 June: Chicago loses at Philadelphia, 5-goals-3
Game 5 on Sunday, 06 June: Philadelphia loses at Chicago, 7-goals-4
Game 6 on Wednesday, 09 June: Chicago wins at Philadelphia, 4-goals-3 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: With a goal 4:06 into the first overtime, the Chicago Blackhawks visited and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-goals-3, thereby notching a 4-games-2 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103 victory over the Flyers for the 2010 NHL championship - the first NHL championship for the Chicago Blackhawks since 1961. With the series 1103 victory, the Chicago Blackhawks improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 32-38 overall and 2-6 in the Finals. With the series 1103 loss, the Philadelphia Flyers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 36-28 overall and 2-6 in the Finals. The win order for the victorious Chicago Blackhawks in series 1103 was WWLLWW: Series 1103 thus becomes the fifth NHL Finals, the 35th NHL series (all rounds), and the 66th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The 47 total goals tallied in series 1103 ties for the third-most in a best-of-7 NHL Finals series, and is the most in an NHL Finals series since series 373, in which the victorious New York Islanders and vanquished Philadelphia Flyers combined for 51 goals in the 1980 NHL Finals.

After Game 5: In the highest-scoring NHL Finals Game 5 since the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 8-goals-3 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 448 (1985 NHL Finals) Game 5 a quarter of a century ago, the Chicago Blackhawks hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 7-goals-4 to take a 3-games-2 lead in series 1103. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Chicago Blackhawks have a 16-3 series record with an active 11-series winning streak, and a 12-7 Game 6 record with an active four-Game 6 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 2-13 series record and a 6-9 Game 6 record - the second Flyers series victory in this context occurred in series 1098, in which Philadelphia surmounted a 3-games-nil deficit and defeated the Boston Bruins 4-games-3 in the 2010 NHL Quarterfinals. With the Game 5 victory by Chicago in series 1103, teams in best-of-7 NHL Finals that win Games 1-2 at home and lose Games 3-4 on the road have now won ten out of ten Game 5s. Through five games of series 1103, the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers have notched a total of forty goals ... the most through the first five games of a best-of-7 NHL series (all rounds) since series 859 (in which the San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche combined for 42 goals in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals), and the most through the first five of a best-of-7 NHL Finals series since series 388 (in which the New York Islanders and Minnesota North Stars combined for 42 goals in the 1981 NHL Finals). In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals series from 1905 through the 2009 MLB Finals, teams (such as Chicago) leading 3-games-2 with Games 1-2 and 5 at home and Games 3-4 on the road have a 34-3 (.919) series record: The three losses occurred in series 1070 (in which the Detroit Red Wings with home-ice advantage lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2009 NHL Finals), series 238 (in which the Chicago Blackhawks with home-ice advantage lost to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals), and series 215 (in which the Los Angeles Lakers with home-court advantage lost to the Boston Celtics in the 1969 NBA Finals).

After Game 4: In the first game in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103 to end with a margin of victory greater than one goal (thanks to a last-minute empty-netter by Philadelphia), the host Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 5-goals-3 to tie series 1103 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Chicago Blackhawks have a 13-16 series record with an active three-series winning streak (winning Games 5 and 6 in each of those three series), and a 15-14 Game 5 record, while the Philadelphia Flyers have a 13-6 series record and a 12-7 Game 5 record. How important is Game 5? When the Flyers win Game 5 to break a 2-games-all NHL playoff series tie, their series record is 12-0. When the Flyers lose Game 5 to break a 2-games-all NHL playoff series tie, their series record is 1-6 with an active six-series losing streak. When the Blackhawks win Game 5 to break a 2-games-all NHL playoff series tie, their series record is 12-3 with an active seven-series winning streak. When the Blackhawks lose Game 5 to break a 2-games-all NHL playoff series tie, their series record is 1-13 with an active ten-series losing streak. While the historical victory probabilities still favor Chicago in the current situation, Philadelphia can still look to two previous best-of-7 NHL Finals for inspiration: series 238 (the 1971 NHL Finals, in which the Chicago Blackhawks won Games 1-2 at home, lost Games 3-4 in Montreal, won Game 5 at home, and then lost Game 6 in Montreal and Game 7 at home) and series 1070 (the 2009 NHL Finals, in which the Detroit Red Wings won Games 1-2 at home, lost Games 3-4 in Pittsburgh, won Game 5 at home, and then lost Game 6 in Pittsburgh and Game 7 at home).

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103 in Pennsylvania for Games 3-4, the Philadelphia Flyers hosted and (with a goal 5:59 into the first overtime period) defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 4-goals-3 to cut the Chicago lead in the 2010 NHL Finals to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Blackhawks have a 12-7 series record and an 8-11 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 7-18 series record (with an active four-series losing streak) and a 12-13 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals, teams such as Chicago leading 2-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road have a 28-2 series record: The only two losses were sustained in series 238 by the Chicago Blackhawks (to the Montreal Canadiens) in the 1971 NHL Finals, and in series 1070 by the Detroit Red Wings (to the Pittsburgh Penguins) in the 2009 NHL Finals. Series 1103 is only the sixth best-of-7 format NHL Finals in which each of the first three games was decided by a single goal.

After Game 2: The Chicago Blackhawks hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 2-goals-1 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Chicago Blackhawks have a 12-2 series record and a 10-4 Game 3 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 3-12 series record and an 8-7 Game 3 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals from 1939 through 2009, teams (such as Chicago) leading 2-games-nil with Games 1-2 at home have a 31-2 series record: The two losses were sustained in series 238 by the Chicago Blackhawks to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals, and in series 1070 by the Detroit Red Wings to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2009 NHL Finals. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2010 Semifinals, teams winning Games 1 and 2 by one goal each had a 38-7 series record; the last team to lose a series in this situation was the Boston Bruins, in series 1098 to the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2010 NHL Quarterfinals.

After Game 1: In the highest-scoring NHL Finals Game 1 since 1982, the Chicago Blackhawks hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 6-goals-5 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 17-8 and a Game 2 record of 14-11. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a series record of 14-19 and a Game 2 record of 18-15. Series 1103 Game 1 was the highest-scoring best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 1 since series 965, in which the Buffalo Sabres defeated the Ottawa Senators 7-goals-6 in Game 1 of their 2006 NHL Quarterfinals series. Series 1103 Game 1 was the highest-scoring best-of-7 NHL Finals Game 1 since series 403, in which the New York Islanders defeated the Vancouver Canucks 6-goals-5 in Game 1 of the 1982 NHL Finals.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2009-10 regular season, Chicago finished 24 points ahead of Philadelphia. From 1939 through the 2010 NHL Semifinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 24 regular-season points, they have posted a 6-4 (.600) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1103 is the 64th best-of-7 playoff series for the Philadelphia Flyers, and the 70th for the Chicago Blackhawks. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Philadelphia has a 36-27 series record, a 2-5 NHL Finals-round series record with an active five-Finals losing streak, and a 30-33 Game 1 record, while Chicago has a 31-38 series record, a 1-6 NHL Finals-round record with an active five-Finals losing streak, and a 25-44 Game 1 record. Series 1103 is the second best-of-7 meeting between Philadelphia and Chicago; the first was series 234, in which Chicago swept Philadelphia 4-games-nil in the 1971 NHL Quarterfinals. By definition, series 1103 will bring one of these two five-Finals losing streaks to an end, while extending the other to six.