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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2010 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1120.
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies

Schedule and 2010 Results
Regular Season Records: Philadelphia 97-65, San Francisco 92-70
Game 1 on Saturday, 16 October: San Francisco wins at Philadelphia, 4-runs-3
Game 2 on Sunday, 17 October: San Francisco loses at Philadelphia, 6-runs-1
Game 3 on Tuesday, 19 October: Philadelphia loses at San Francisco, 3-runs-nil
Game 4 on Wednesday, 20 October: Philadelphia loses at San Francisco, 6-runs-5
Game 5 on Thursday, 21 October: Philadelphia wins at San Francisco, 4-runs-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 23 October: San Francisco wins at Philadelphia, 3-runs-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120 in Pennsylvania for the duration, the visiting San Francisco Giants defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-runs-2 for a 4-games-2 series 1120 victory. With the series 1120 victory, the San Francisco Giants improve their MLB best-of-7 playoff series record to 3-4 overall and 3-1 in the MLB Semifinals. With the series 1120 defeat, the Philadelphia Phillies see their MLB best-of-7 playoff series record fall to 5-6 overall and 3-1 in the MLB Semifinals. The win order for the victorious San Francisco Giants in series 1120 was WLWWLW: Series 1120 thus becomes the first MLB Semifinals series, the fourth MLB series (all rounds), and the 37th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. Ironically, the last MLB best-of-7 series which followed a WLWWLW win order to completion was series 650 (the 1993 MLB Finals), with the Philadelphia Phillies again emerging on the short end (that time to the Toronto Blue Jays). The sum of the victory margins over the six games of series 1120 was 13 runs: Series 1120 thus becomes only the 11th MLB best-of-7 playoff series lasting six games with a total victory margin differential of 13 runs or less, and the first since series 955 (in which the Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-games-2 in the 2005 MLB Semifinals round, with a total victory margin differential of 12 runs). Despite their 4-games-2 series 1120 victory, the San Francisco Giants were outscored by the Philadelphia Phillies 20-runs-19. Series 1120 thus becomes the first MLB best-of-7 playoff series in which the losing team outscored the winning team since series 936, in which the victorious Boston Red Sox were outscored 45-runs-41 by the vanquished New York Yankees in their 2004 MLB Semifinals round series (the series in which Boston had trailed 3-games-nil but rallied for a 4-games-3 series victory).

After Game 5: Avoiding elimination on the road and forcing MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120 back to Philadelphia for Game 6, the Philadelphia Phillies visited and defeated the San Francisco Giants 4-runs-2 to narrow the San Francisco series lead to 3-games-2. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Phillies have a 0-2 series record and a 0-2 Game 6 record (with the losses occurring in series 650 [in the 1993 MLB Finals against Toronto] and in series 1088 [in the 2009 MLB Finals against the New York Yankees]). When leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-2, the San Francisco Giants also have a 0-2 series record and a 0-2 Game 6 record (with the losses occurring in series 499 [in the 1987 MLB Semifinals against St. Louis] and in series 872 [in the 2002 MLB Finals against Anaheim]). In the history of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds), teams such as San Francisco with a win order of WLWWL at a site order of VVHHH through five games have a 0-3 Game 6 record.

After Game 4: Winning the game with a run in the bottom of the ninth inning, the San Francisco Giants hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-runs-5 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the Philadelphia Phillies have a 0-4 series record and a 2-2 Game 5 record (with an active two Game 5 winning streak). When leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the San Francisco Giants have a 2-0 series record and a 2-0 Game 5 record: The victories occurred in series 549 (in the 1989 MLB Semifinals) and in series 871 (in the 2002 MLB Semifinals). In the history of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series from 1905 through the 2010 NBA and NHL Finals, teams with a WLWW win order irrespective of site (such as San Francisco thus far in series 1120) have an active 17-series winning streak; the last series loss in this context was sustained in series 473, by the California Angels to the Boston Red Sox in the 1986 MLB Semifinals.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120 in California for Games 3-5, the San Francisco Giants hosted and shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 3-runs-nil to take a 2-games-1 series lead. When leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the San Francisco Giants have a perfect 2-0 series record and an equally perfect (if less climactic) 2-0 Game 4 record. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Phillies have a 1-4 series record and a 1-4 Game 4 record: Both the sole Game 4 and the sole series victory occurred in series 649, against the Atlanta Braves in the 1993 MLB Semifinals round. San Francisco won series 1120 Game 3 at home by a shutout. In the history of MLB best-of-7 playoff series, teams such as San Francisco which win Game 3 at home by shutout sport an 11-5 (.688) series record with an active eight-series winning streak; ironically, the last MLB team to win a best-of-7 playoff Game 3 at home by shutout was the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies, in series 1087 against the Los Angeles Dodgers - Philadelphia would win that 2009 MLB Semifinals series in five games, thus providing the 2010 San Francisco Giants a most suitable prototype against the 2010 edition of the Phillies.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Phillies hosted and bested the San Francisco Giants 6-runs-1 to even at 1-game-all their MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120. When tied 1-game-all in an MLB best-of-7 playoff series, the San Francisco Giants have a 1-3 Game 3 record and a 1-3 series record, while the Philadelphia Phillies have a 2-5 Game 3 record and a 3-4 series record. In this situation, both the San Francisco sole Game 3 win and sole series win occurred in series 549, against the Chicago Cubs in the 1989 MLB Semifinals round. For Philadelphia, the only exception to "as goes Game 3, so goes the series" was in series 649 (in the 1993 MLB Semifinals round against the Atlanta Braves), in which the Phillies broke a 1-game-all series tie by losing Game 3 but winning Games 4-6 and the series. With the Philadelphia series 1120 Game 2 victory, the two series in the 2010 MLB Semifinals round mirror each other, with the road team squeaking out a one-run victory in Game 1, and with the home team rallying for a five-run victory in Game 2. Twice before in MLB best-of-7 playoff series history had a road team (such as New York or San Francisco in 2010) won Game 1 by one run and lost Game 2 by five runs: In series 186, the St. Louis Cardinals did so to open the 1967 MLB Finals, and proceeded to win the series against the Boston Red Sox; in series 905, the Florida Marlins did so to open the 2003 MLB Finals, and proceeded to win the series against the New York Yankees. So it is that the 2010 Yankees (and Giants) will seek to emulate the team that defeated the Yankees in the 2003 World Series.

After Game 1: The San Francisco Giants visited and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-runs-3 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120. When leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Francisco Giants have a 2-1 series record and a 1-2 Game 2 record. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Phillies have a 0-2 series record and a 1-1 Game 2 record. With the San Francisco win, the road team has achieved MLB best-of-7 Game 1 victories in both Semifinals-round series for the first time since 2003, and the road team has achieved MLB best-of-7 Game 1 one-run victories in both Semifinals-round series for the first time since 1988. In the history of MLB best-of-7 playoff series, when the road team wins Game 1 by one run, its series record is 16-11 (.593): In series 872 (the 2002 MLB Finals), San Francisco won Game 1 on the road by one run but lost the series; in series 81 (the 1950 MLB Finals), Philadelphia lost Game 1 at home by one run and lost the series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2010 regular season, the Philadelphia Phillies finished five games ahead of the San Francisco Giants. From 1905 through the 2009 MLB Finals, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season games, they have posted a 3-3 (.500) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1120 is the seventh best-of-7 playoff series for San Francisco, and the 11th for Philadelphia. In best-of-7 playoff series, San Francisco has a 2-4 series record, a 2-1 Semifinals-round series record, and a 3-3 Game 1 record, while Philadelphia has a 5-5 series record, a 3-0 Semifinals-round record, and an 8-2 Game 1 record. Series 1120 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between San Francisco and Philadelphia. With a perfect 3-0 series record, the Philadelphia Phillies and the old NBA Washington Bullets share the best best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals-round series record.