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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2009 NHL Finals round - Series 1070.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Detroit Red Wings

Schedule and 2008-09 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 51-21-10=112pts, Pittsburgh 45-28-9=99pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 30 May: Pittsburgh loses at Detroit, 3-goals-1
Game 2 on Sunday, 31 May: Pittsburgh loses at Detroit, 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Tuesday, 02 June: Detroit loses at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-2
Game 4 on Thursday, 04 June: Detroit loses at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-2
Game 5 on Saturday, 06 June: Pittsburgh loses at Detroit, 5-goals-nil
Game 6 on Tuesday, 09 June: Detroit loses at Pittsburgh, 2-goals-1
Game 7 on Friday, 12 June: Pittsburgh wins at Detroit, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Becoming the first team to win an MLB/NBA/NHL Finals Game 7 on the road since the Pittsburgh Pirates did so in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 366 (against the Baltimore Orioles in the 1979 MLB Finals) thirty years ago, the Pittsburgh Penguins visited and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 2-goals-1 to win series 1070 (the 2009 NHL Finals), 4-games-3. With the series 1070 victory, the Pittsburgh Penguins improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 25-16 overall and 3-1 in the Finals. With the series 1070 loss, the Detroit Red Wings see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 52-38 overall and 9-12 in the Finals. The Detroit series 1070 loss ends the Red Wings' series winning streak at seven overall and at four in the NHL Finals; the Pittsburgh series 1070 win improves the Pittsburgh road Game 7 record to 5-0 (all rounds); ironically, the MLB Pittsburgh Pirates own a 5-0 best-of-7 format playoff Game 7 Finals-round record irrespective of site. The series 1070 win order for the victorious Pittsburgh Penguins was LLWWLWW: Series 1070 thus becomes the second NHL Finals series (with the 1971 NHL Finals), the sixth NHL series (all rounds), and the 11th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow such a win order to completion.

After Game 6: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 2-goals-1 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070 at 3-games-all, thereby forcing the 2009 NHL Finals to Game 7. The Game 7 record for the Detroit Red Wings is 12-7 overall (with a three-Game 7 winning streak) and 11-4 on home ice. The Game 7 record for the Pittsburgh Penguins is 6-4 overall (with a three-Game 7 winning streak) and 4-0 on road ice. In the history of NHL Game 7s, home teams have an 80-48 overall record and a 12-2 Finals record. The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to win a Finals-round Game 7 on the road was the MLB Pittsburgh Pirates, in series 366 in Baltimore over the Orioles in the 1979 World Series, thirty years ago; since then, MLB/NBA/NHL teams at home for Game 7 have an 18-0 record. The last NHL team to win Game 7 of the Finals on the road was the Montreal Canadiens, in series 238 over the Blackhawks in Chicago in 1971; since then, home teams in Game 7 of the NHL Finals have a 6-0 record.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070 back in Michigan for Game 5, the host Detroit Red Wings shut out the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins 5-goals-nil to take a 3-games-2 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Red Wings have a 23-4 series record (with an active 14-series winning streak) and an 18-9 Game 6 record (and a 13-Game 6 winning streak that was just ended in series 1066, when the Red Wings lost Game 6 to the Anaheim Ducks in the 2009 NHL Quarterfinals earlier this playoff season). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 5-6 series record, and a 5-6 Game 6 record. The 5-goals-nil shutout by Detroit was the most one-sided shutout in the NHL playoffs since series 1035 Game 5, when, ironically, the Penguins shut out the Philadelphia Flyers 6-goals-nil in Pittsburgh to win their 2008 NHL Eastern Conference Finals series. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008, inclusive, teams (such as Detroit) with a 3-games-2 lead with Games 1-2 at home, Games 3-4 on the road, and Game 5 at home have a 19-1 series record with an active 13-series winning streak; the sole series loss in this situation was sustained by the Chicago Blackhawks in series 238, against the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), teams that have won Games 1-2, lost Games 3-4, and won Game 5 are on an active twenty-five (25) series winning streak; the last NHL team to begin a best-of-7 playoff series WWLLW but lose the series was the New York Islanders in series 339 (losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs in their 1978 NHL Quarterfinals series).

After Game 4: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-goals-2 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070 Game 4, thereby knotting series 1070 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 20-13 and a Game 5 record of 17-16, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 9-7 and a Game 5 record of 9-7. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series, teams tied 2-games-all with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road (such as Detroit) have a 15-2 series record with an eight-series winning streak. In that same history, teams that win Games 1-2 and lose Games 3-4 with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road (such as Detroit) have a 7-1 series record and an 8-0 Game 5 record. The sole series loss in that latter situation occurred in series 238, with the Chicago Blackhawks falling to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals. So it is that the 1971 Montreal Canadiens remain the setters of a favorable precedent for the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070 in Pennsylvania for Games 3 and 4, the host Penguins defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-goals-2, thus narrowing the Detroit series 1070 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a 24-9 series record with an active three-series winning streak, and a 14-19 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 7-8 series record and an 8-7 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008, teams leading 2-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road have a 28-1 (.966) series record; the sole series loss occurred in series 238, with the Chicago Blackhawks falling to the Montreal Canadiens in 1971. In that same history, teams winning Games 1-2 and losing Game 3 irrespective of site have a 17-2 (.895) series record; the two losses were incurred in series 238 (cited above) and in series 175, with the Detroit Red Wings falling to the Montreal Canadiens in 1966. In that same history, teams winning Games 1-2 and losing Game 3 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road have a 16-1 (.941) series record; the sole series loss occurred in the twice-aforementioned series 238. The Pittsburgh Penguins thus find favorable precedents in the 1966 and 1971 Montreal Canadiens; the Detroit Red Wings find the historical victory probabilities favorable.

After Game 2: The Detroit Red Wings again hosted and again defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-goals-1, thereby taking a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 28-6 (with a nine-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 18-16. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 3 record of 6-3. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008, inclusive, teams winning Games 1-2 have a 41-3 series record. The three losses in the wake of 2-games-nil leads were sustained by the Detroit Red Wings in series 42 (to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1942 NHL Finals), the Detroit Red Wings in series 175 (to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1966 NHL Finals), and the Chicago Blackhawks in series 238 (to the Montreal Canadiens in the 1971 NHL Finals). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008, inclusive, teams winning Games 1-2 on home ice have a 31-1 series record, with the sole loss sustained by the Chicago Blackhawks (in series 238, cited above). In series 208, the Montreal Canadiens opened the 1969 NHL Finals also with 3-goals-1 wins in Games 1 and 2 on home ice; those Canadiens would go on to sweep the St. Louis Blues 4-games-nil to win the 1969 NHL championship.

After Game 1: The Detroit Red Wings hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 37-13 and a Game 2 record of 34-16. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 10-11 and a Game 2 record of 12-9. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2009 Semifinals, teams such as Detroit that win Game 1 of the NHL Finals at home have a 43-6 (.878) series record with a twelve-series winning streak; the last home team to win Game 1 in the NHL Finals but lose the series was the Calgary Flames in 1986. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series during that time, home teams winning Game 1 of the Finals by two goals have an 11-0 series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2008-09 regular season, the Detroit Red Wings finished a lucky 13 points ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins. From 1939 through the 2009 NHL Semifinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 13 regular-season points, they have posted an 11-7 (.611) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1070 is the 41st best-of-7 playoff series for Pittsburgh, and the 90th for Detroit. In best-of-7 playoff series, Pittsburgh has a 24-16 series record, a 2-1 Finals-round series record, and a 19-21 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 52-37 series record (with an active seven-series winning streak), a 9-11 Finals-round record (with an active four-series winning streak in the NHL Finals), and a 50-39 Game 1 record (with an active eight-Game 1 winning streak). Series 1070 is the second best-of-7 meeting between Pittsburgh and Detroit; Detroit won series 1037 - the 2008 NHL Finals.