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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2009 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1083.
Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Schedule and 2008-09 Results
Regular Season Records: Cleveland 66-16, Orlando 59-23
Game 1 on Wednesday, 20 May: Orlando wins at Cleveland, 107-pts-106
Game 2 on Friday, 22 May: Orlando loses at Cleveland, 96-pts-95
Game 3 on Sunday, 24 May: Cleveland loses at Orlando, 99-pts-89
Game 4 on Tuesday, 26 May: Cleveland loses at Orlando, 116-pts-114 (OT)
Game 5 on Thursday, 28 May: Orlando loses at Cleveland, 112-pts-102
Game 6 on Saturday, 30 May: Cleveland loses at Orlando, 103-pts-90

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Orlando Magic hosted and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 103-pts-90, thus notching a 4-games-2 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 victory. Through ousting Cleveland from the 2009 NBA playoffs, the Orlando Magic thus advance to series 1085 (the 2009 NBA Finals) to meet the Los Angeles Lakers. With the series 1083 victory, the Orlando Magic improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 7-5 overall and 2-1 in the Semifinals. With the series 1083 loss, the Cleveland Cavaliers see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 9-7 overall and 1-3 in the Semifinals. The victorious Orlando Magic posted a series 1083 victory order of WLWWLW: Series 1083 thus becomes the seventh NBA Semifinals series, the 19th NBA series (all rounds), and the 36th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 back in Cleveland for Game 5, the host Cleveland Cavaliers staved off elimination by defeating the Orlando Magic 112-pts-102, thus cutting the Orlando series lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Orlando Magic have a 3-1 series record and a 2-2 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 0-3 series record and a 1-2 Game 6 record. In the history of MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals from 1939 through the 2009 NHL Semifinals, teams such as Orlando which post a WLWWL @ VVHHV win/site order have a 7-2 Game 6 record; however, both Game 6 losers (San Antonio, in series 363 [in the 1979 NBA Semifinals]; Philadelphia, in series 393 [in the 1981 NBA Semifinals]) then lost Game 7 and the series.

After Game 4: In the first game of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 to require overtime, the host Orlando Magic defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-pts-114 in series 1083 Game 4. Orlando thus takes a 3-games-1 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Orlando Magic have a 2-1 series record and a 2-1 Game 5 record. The Cleveland Cavaliers had had a 6-0 Game 4 record upon trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1; thus, Cleveland now trails a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1 for the first time. The win/site order for Orlando thus far in series 1083 is WLWW @ VVHH. In series 888, the Orlando Magic also won Game 1, lost Game 2, and won Games 3-4 with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-4 at home; the Magic then lost Games 5-7 and series 888 to the Detroit Pistons in the 2003 NBA Preliminary round. Series 888 thus offers a favorable precedent to Cleveland in series 1083.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 in Florida for Games 3 and 4, the host Orlando Magic defeated the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers 99-pts-89 to take a 2-games-1 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Orlando Magic have a 4-1 series record and a 2-3 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 2-4 series record but a perfect 6-0 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: On a last-second three-point shot, the host Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the visiting Orlando Magic 96-pts-95 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 at 1-game-all. As in series 1083 Game 1, Orlando trailed by 14 points after one quarter. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 3-1 series record and a 2-2 Game 3 record, while the Orlando Magic have a 3-1 series record and a 3-1 Game 3 record. Series 1083 has become the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which both Game 1 and Game 2 were decided by one point: The sum of the victory margins in series 1083 Games 1-2 is two points, thus breaking the previous "smallest Games 1-2 combined victory margin" record of three points, set in series 69 (the 1948 NBA Semifinals) by the St. Louis Bombers and Philadelphia Warriors, tied in series 377 (the 1980 NBA Quarterfinals) by the Seattle Supersonics and Milwaukee Bucks, and tied in series 571 (the 1990 Semifinals) by the Portland Trailblazers and Phoenix Suns.

After Game 1: Despite trailing by 14 points after one quarter and by 15 at the half, the Orlando Magic rallied to defeat the Cavaliers in Cleveland 107-pts-106 to take a 1-game-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Orlando Magic have a 5-1 series record and a 3-3 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 2-6 series record and a 2-6 Game 2 record (with a five-Game 2 losing streak). In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through the 2009 Quarterfinals, when a road team wins Game 1 by one point, its series record is 3-3. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through the 2009 Quarterfinals, road teams down 14 points after one quarter had a 3-30 (.091) game record, while road teams down 15 points at half-time had a 2-45 (.043) game record, so the Orlando comeback in Cleveland is of some note. The last team in the NBA playoffs to trail by 15 points at half-time was also the Orlando Magic, in Game 2 of series 1080 (in the just-completed 2009 NBA Quarterfinals) in Boston -- the Magic lost that game to the Celtics by 18 points.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2008-09 regular season, Cleveland finished seven games ahead of Orlando. From 1947 through the 2009 NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season games, they have posted a 21-3 (.875) best-of-7 series record (with an active seven-series winning streak) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1083 is the 12th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Orlando, and the 16th for Cleveland. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Orlando has a 6-5 series record, a 1-1 Semifinals-round series record, and a 6-5 Game 1 record, while Cleveland has a 9-6 series record, a 1-2 Semifinals-round record, and a 7-8 Game 1 record. Series 1083 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Orlando and Cleveland.