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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2008 NHL Finals round - Series 1037.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Detroit Red Wings

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 54-21-7=115pts, Pittsburgh 47-27-8=102pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 24 May: Pittsburgh loses at Detroit, 4-goals-nil
Game 2 on Monday, 26 May: Pittsburgh loses at Detroit, 3-goals-nil
Game 3 on Wednesday, 28 May: Detroit loses at Pittsburgh, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Saturday, 31 May: Detroit wins at Pittsburgh, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Monday, 02 June: Pittsburgh wins at Detroit, 4-goals-3 (3OT)
Game 6 on Wednesday, 04 June: Detroit wins at Pittsburgh, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Staving off a late run by the host Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings won MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037 Game 6 by a 3-goals-2 score. Detroit thus posts a 4-games-2 win in the 2008 NHL Finals, and becomes the 2008 NHL champions. With the series 1037 victory, the Detroit Red Wings improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 49-37 overall and 9-11 in the Finals with a four-Finals winning streak. With the series 1037 loss, the Pittsburgh Penguins see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 21-16 overall and 2-1 in the Finals. The victorious Detroit Red Wings posted a WWLWLW win order in series 1037: Series 1037 thus becomes the third NHL Finals, the 15th NHL series (all rounds), and the 33rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) among best-of-7 playoff series to follow that win order to completion. With the Detroit series win, the NHL Finalist with home-ice advantage has now won the last ten NHL Finals.

After Game 5: Scoring the winning goal 9:57 into the third overtime period, the Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Red Wings in Detroit 4-goals-3 to cut the Detroit MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Red Wings have a 21-4 series record (with a 12-series winning streak) and a 17-8 Game 6 record (with a 12-Game 6 winning streak), while the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 5-5 series record and a 5-5 Game 6 record. Pittsburgh trailed 3-goals-2 before scoring the tying goal with just 35 seconds left in regulation. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds) from 1939 through 2007, inclusive, home teams leading by one goal with just 36 seconds left in regulation had a 418-8 (.981) game record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008 Game 4, inclusive, home teams leading by one goal with just 36 seconds left in regulation had a 51-0 (1.000) game record. In best-of-7 NHL Finals games that enter a third overtime period, road teams now sport a 6-0 game record. Series 1037 Game 5 is now the fourth-longest in best-of-7 NHL Finals history.

After Game 4: Posting the first road win in the 2008 NHL Finals, the Detroit Red Wings visited and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-goals-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a series record of 15-2 with a nine-series winning streak and a Game 5 record of 8-9. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 2-5 with a four-series losing streak and a Game 5 record of 3-4 with a four-Game 5 losing streak. Series 1037 Game 4 is the first NHL Finals game since 2007 (series 1004; Ottawa vs. Anaheim) Game 4 in which the victorious team had trailed in the game; in 2007 NHL Finals Game 4, Ottawa led Anaheim for 10 minutes 7 seconds before losing the game. The last best-of-7 Detroit series loss in the wake of a 3-games-1 lead occurred in series 581, when the Red Wings fell to the St. Louis Blues in the 1991 NHL Preliminary round. The Pittsburgh Penguins surmounted 3-games-1 deficits for series victories in series 604 (against the Washington Capitals in the 1992 NHL Preliminary round) and series 675 (against the Washington Capitals in the 1995 NHL Preliminary round). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals from 1939 through 2007, teams such as Detroit with a 3-games-1 lead irrespective of site have a 28-1 series record; the sole loser - the Detroit Red Wings, in series 42 (the 1942 NHL Finals against the Toronto Maple Leafs; Detroit had led that series 3-games-nil). In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals, teams such as the Pittsburgh Penguins which trail 3-games-1 with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-4 at home have a 3-54 series record: The last team to win a Finals series in that situation was the Pittsburgh Pirates, in series 366 (the 1979 MLB Finals) against the Baltimore Orioles. So it is that one Pittsburgh team offers a favorable precedent for another, in the wake of daunting probabilities to the contrary.

After Game 3: Ending the third-longest scoring drought ever from the start of a best-of-7 NHL Finals series at 137:25 with the game's opening goal 17:25 into the first period, the Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-2 to cut the Detroit MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a 22-9 series record and a 12-19 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 6-7 series record with an active four-series losing streak, and a 7-6 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals from 1939 through 2007, teams such as Detroit that lead 2-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road have a daunting 27-1 (.964) series record; the sole series loser in that situation was the Chicago Blackhawks, in series 238 to the Montreal Canadiens in 1971.

After Game 2: The Detroit Red Wings once again hosted and once again shut out the Pittsburgh Penguins, this time by a 3-goals-nil score, to take a 2-games-nil series lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a 25-6 series record with a six-series winning streak, and a 17-14 Game 3 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 3-4 series record and a 4-3 Game 3 record. Through the second game of series 1037, the Pittsburgh Penguins have endured the third-longest scoring drought from the start of a best-of-7 NHL Finals series (120 minutes and counting), next only to the 1945 Detroit Red Wings (whose first series goal occurred 8:35 into the first period of Game 4 of the 1945 NHL Finals) and the 2003 Anaheim Mighty Ducks (whose first series goal occurred 3:39 into the second period of Game 3 of the 2003 NHL Finals). The back-to-back shutouts suffered by the Pittsburgh Penguins are the second they have suffered in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series; the first occurred in series 835, when the New Jersey Devils shut them out in Games 3-4 of their 2001 NHL Semifinals series. The back-to-back shutouts inflicted by the Detroit Red Wings are the eighth to date that they have achieved in best-of-7 NHL playoff series, and the first since Games 6-7 of series 861 (the 2002 NHL Semifinals series against the Colorado Avalanche). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series, teams winning Games 1-2 at home have a 30-1 series record. The sole loss was sustained by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 1971 NHL finals, won by the Montreal Canadiens.

After Game 1: The Detroit Red Wings hosted and shut out the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-goals-nil to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a 33-13 series record and a 31-15 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 9-10 series record and a 12-7 Game 2 record. The shutout by Detroit was the most lopsided shutout in Game 1 of the NHL Finals since 2001, when the Colorado Avalanche shut out the New Jersey Devils 5-goals-nil in the opener to series 837. The first goal of the game occurred at 13:01 into the second period - the third-latest first goal of a best-of-7 NHL Finals series ever (in series 298, the Philadelphia Flyers scored the first goal of the 1975 NHL Finals 3:42 into the third period against the Buffalo Sabres; in series 433, the Edmonton Oilers scored the first goal of the 1984 NHL Finals 1:55 into the third period in New York against the Islanders).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Detroit finished 13 points ahead of Pittsburgh. From 1939 through the 2008 NHL Semifinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 13 regular-season points, they have posted a 9-7 (.563) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1037 is the 37th best-of-7 playoff series for Pittsburgh, and the 86th for Detroit. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Pittsburgh has a 21-15 series record, a 2-0 Finals-round series record, and a 17-19 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 48-37 series record, an 8-11 Finals-round record, and a 46-39 Game 1 record with an active four-Game 1 winning streak. Series 1037 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between Pittsburgh and Detroit. In the NHL playoffs, the team at home for Game 1 of the NHL Finals (such as Detroit in 2008) is on a nine-series winning streak irrespective of the Game 1 outcome; starting the streak was the Detroit Red Wings in 1998, in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 762.