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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1036.
Dallas Stars vs Detroit Red Wings

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 54-21-7=115pts, Dallas 45-30-7=97pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 08 May: Dallas loses at Detroit, 4-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 10 May: Dallas loses at Detroit, 2-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 12 May: Detroit wins at Dallas, 5-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 14 May: Detroit loses at Dallas, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 17 May: Dallas wins at Detroit, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Monday, 19 May: Detroit wins at Dallas, 4-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Taking a first-period 3-goals-nil lead and never looking back, the Detroit Red Wings visited and defeated the Dallas Stars 4-goals-1 to post a 4-games-2 win in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036. With the series 1036 win, the Detroit Red Wings improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 48-37 overall and 18-13 in the NHL Semifinals. With the series 1036 loss, the Dallas Stars see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 14-11 overall and 2-2 in the NHL Semifinals. The win order for the victorious Detroit Red Wings in series 1036 was WWWLLW: Series 1036 thus becomes the second NHL Semifinals series, the eighth NHL series (all rounds), and the 16th MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order. Leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Red Wings now have an active 12-series winning streak and an active 12-Game 6 winning streak. Detroit will now face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2008 NHL Finals. Detroit and Pittsburgh combined have lost only six games in the 2008 NHL playoffs - the fewest combined losses by the NHL Finalists since 1995, when Detroit (two losses) and the New Jersey Devils (four) also lost only a combined six games in the 1995 NHL playoffs prior to the Finals that year.

After Game 5: The Dallas Stars visited and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 2-goals-1 to reduce the Detroit MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Red Wings have a 20-4 series record with an active eleven-series winning streak, and a 16-8 Game 6 record with an active 11-Game 6 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a 1-5 series record and a 3-3 Game 6 record. The sole Dallas series win in this situation occurred in series 786, over the Colorado Avalanche in the 1999 NHL Semifinals. In the NHL Semifinals, the last team to lead 3-games-2 but lose the series was the Colorado Avalanche, in series 861 to the Detroit Red Wings (in 2002). So it is that the 2002 Detroit Red Wings set a favorable precedent for the 2008 Dallas Stars ... against the 2008 Red Wings.

After Game 4: Having previously never led (let alone won a game) in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036, the Dallas Stars hosted and defeated the Detroit Red Wings 3-goals-1 to cut the Detroit series 1036 lead to 3-games-1, thereby averting both a four-game sweep and an "annihilation" (wherein the team swept four-games-nil never - not for a single second - holds an in-game lead in the series). When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Detroit Red Wings have a 14-2 series record with an active eight-series winning streak, and an 8-8 Game 5 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a 0-8 series record and a 4-4 Game 5 mark. In best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series from 1939 through 2007, inclusive, teams such as Detroit that lead 3-games-1 (irrespective of win/site order) have a 57-1 (.983) series record, with the sole loss occurring in series 810, in which the Philadelphia Flyers lost Games 5-7 and the series to the New Jersey Devils in 2000. The Detroit Red Wings are trying to post a WWWLW win order in a best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series for the third time, having previously done so in 1956 and 1995. The Dallas Stars are trying to force Detroit into a WWWLLLL win order for the second time overall and the first since the 1942 NHL Finals.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036 in Texas for Games 3-4, the Detroit Red Wings visited and defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-2 to take a 3-games-nil series 1036 lead. The Dallas Stars thus become the 270th MLB/NBA/NHL team to attempt to surmount a 3-games-nil deficit to win a best-of-7 playoff series 4-games-3. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a 15-1 series record with a 15-series winning streak, and a 12-4 Game 4 record with a six-Game 4 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have a 0-3 series record with a 2-1 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: In a game in which all of the scoring occurred in the first period, the Detroit Red Wings hosted and doubled up the Dallas Stars 2-goals-1 to take a 2-games-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a 24-6 series record with a five-series winning streak, and a Game 3 record of 16-14. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have a perfect 0-6 series record and a 3-3 Game 3 record.

After Game 1: The Detroit Red Wings hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 4-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Red Wings have a 32-13 series record and a 30-15 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a 4-9 series record (with a four-series losing streak) and a 7-6 Game 2 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Semifinals from 1939 through 2007, teams such as Detroit that win Game 1 at home have a 66-20 (.767) series record; of the 20 winners of Game 1 at home to lose the series, Detroit was the most recent, having done so in series 1003 (to the eventual NHL champion Anaheim Ducks in the 2007 NHL Semifinals).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Detroit finished 18 points ahead of Dallas. From 1939 through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 18 regular-season points, they have posted an 8-6 (.571) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1036 is the 25th best-of-7 playoff series for Dallas, and the 85th for Detroit. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, Dallas has a 14-10 series record, a 2-1 Semifinals-round series record, and an 11-13 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 47-37 series record, a 17-13 Semifinals-round record, and a 45-39 Game 1 record. Series 1036 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Dallas and Detroit; Detroit won the first two.