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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2008 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1028.
Calgary Flames vs San Jose Sharks

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: San Jose 49-23-10=108pts, Calgary 42-30-10=94pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 09 April: Calgary wins at San Jose, 3-goals-2
Game 2 on Thursday, 10 April: Calgary loses at San Jose, 2-goals-nil
Game 3 on Sunday, 13 April: San Jose loses at Calgary, 4-goals-3
Game 4 on Tuesday, 15 April: San Jose wins at Calgary, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Thursday, 17 April: Calgary loses at San Jose, 4-goals-3
Game 6 on Sunday, 20 April: San Jose loses at Calgary, 2-goals-nil
Game 7 on Tuesday, 22 April: Calgary loses at San Jose, 5-goals-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Taking a lead not to be relinquished in the second period, the San Jose Sharks hosted and defeated the Calgary Flames 5-goals-3, thereby achieving a 4-games-3 victory in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028. With the series 1028 win, San Jose improves its best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 9-10 overall and 8-3 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1028 loss, Calgary sees its best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 11-16 overall and 3-10 in the Preliminary round. The Calgary Flames thus see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series losing streak reach four, beginning with series 919 (their loss in the 2004 NHL Finals). The victorious San Jose Sharks followed a win path of LWLWWLW in series 1028: Series 1028 thus becomes the fourth NHL Preliminary-round series, the ninth NHL series (all rounds), and the 18th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order. This win order is also that which the Calgary Flames followed in the 2004 NHL Preliminary round (in series 912); Calgary in 2004 went as far as Game 7 of the NHL Finals, vanquishing the San Jose Sharks (in series 919 in the 2004 NHL Semifinals) en route. So it is that the Sharks, having just ousted Calgary from the 2008 NHL playoffs, might wish to emulate the success of the 2004 edition of the team they just ousted.

After Game 6: The Calgary Flames forced MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 to a seventh game with a 2-goals-nil shutout of the San Jose Sharks in Calgary. The best-of-7 NHL playoffs Game 7 record of the Calgary Flames is 5-6; that for the San Jose Sharks is 3-2. From 1939 through 2007, inclusive, home teams in the NHL (e.g., San Jose in series 1028) have a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 76-44 (.633) in all rounds, and a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 25-17 (.595) in the Preliminary round. From 1939 through 2007, inclusive, the team winning Game 1, losing Game 2, winning Game 3, losing Games 4-5, and winning Game 6 with Games 1-2 on the road, Games 3-4 at home, Game 5 on the road, and Game 6 at home (Calgary) had an MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series record of only 1-12; the sole series winner (and thus the precedent-setter for Calgary) was the Florida Panthers, in series 710 over the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1996 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 back in northern California for Game 5, the host San Jose Sharks outlasted the Calgary Flames 4-goals-3 to take a 3-games-2 series 1028 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the San Jose Sharks have a 3-2 series record and a 1-4 Game 6 record; when trailing 3-games-2, the Calgary Flames have a perfect 0-7 series mark and a Game 6 record of 2-5.

After Game 4: Scoring the winning goal with only ten seconds remaining in regulation, the San Jose Sharks visited and defeated the Calgary Flames 3-goals-2 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 Game 4, thus tying series 1028 at 2-games-all. When tied in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-all, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 2-8 with an active seven-series losing streak and a Game 5 record of 3-7, while the Calgary Flames have a series record of 7-5 with an active three-series losing streak and a Game 5 record of 10-2. Needless to say, one of those two series losing streaks will end with series 1028.

After Game 3: Despite taking a 3-goals-nil lead 3:33 into the first period of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 Game 3 in Calgary, the San Jose Sharks yielded four unanswered goals and fell to the Calgary Flames 4-goals-3, thereby giving Calgary a 2-games-1 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Calgary Flames have a series record of 8-4 (albeit with a two-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 4-8 (with an active four-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 1-5 (with an active five-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 5-1. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2007, only three games have featured 3-goals-nil leads earlier than the 3:33 at which San Jose posted theirs in series 1028 Game 3: in series 398 Game 3, the Chicago Blackhawks had a 3-goals-nil lead by 3:01 of the first period, and went on to defeat the St. Louis Blues 6-goals-5 in Chicago in their 1982 NHL Quarterfinals series; in series 590 Game 4, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a 3-goals-nil lead by 2:58 of the first period, and went on to defeat the Minnesota North Stars 5-goals-3 in Minnesota in their 1991 NHL Finals series; in series 635 Game 5, the Penguins had a 3-goals-nil lead by 1:48 of the first period, and went on to defeat the New York Islanders 6-goals-3 in Pittsburgh in their 1993 NHL Quarterfinals series. San Jose thus becomes the earliest team ever to take a 3-goals-nil lead in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game and lose the game, taking that mark from the Chicago Blackhawks, which in series 444 Game 1 had taken the 3-goals-nil lead as early as 5:42 into the first period but lost 8-goals-5 to the Minnesota North Stars in Chicago in their 1985 NHL Quarterfinals series.

After Game 2: The San Jose Sharks evened MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 at 1-game-all with a 2-goals-nil shutout of the Calgary Flames in San Jose. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Calgary Flames have an 8-9 series record and a 10-7 Game 3 record, while the San Jose Sharks have a 5-4 series record and a 7-2 Game 3 record with an active five-Game 3 winning streak. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2007, inclusive, teams such as San Jose which lose Game 1 but achieve a Game 2 shutout victory, with Games 1-2 on home ice, have an 8-3 (.727) series record with a five-series winning streak.

After Game 1: The Calgary Flames visited and defeated the San Jose Sharks 3-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Calgary Flames have a 7-3 series record and a 3-7 Game 2 record. When trailing 1-game-nil, the San Jose Sharks have a 2-6 series record and a 3-5 Game 2 record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, San Jose finished 14 points ahead of Calgary. From 1939 through the 2007 NHL Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by fourteen regular-season points, they have posted a 10-7 (.588) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1028 is the 27th best-of-7 playoff series for Calgary, and the 19th for San Jose. In best-of-7 playoff series, Calgary has a 11-15 series record (with an active three-series losing streak), a 3-9 Prelim-round series record, and a 10-16 Game 1 record, while San Jose has an 8-10 series record, a 7-3 Prelim-round record (with an active four-series winning streak), and a 10-8 Game 1 record. Series 1028 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Calgary and San Jose: In MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 678, San Jose defeated Calgary in their 1995 NHL Preliminary-round series; in series 919, Calgary returned the favor in their 2004 NHL Semifinals.