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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1050.
Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 66-16, Detroit 59-23
Game 1 on Tuesday, 20 May: Detroit loses at Boston, 88-pts-79
Game 2 on Thursday, 22 May: Detroit wins at Boston, 103-pts-97
Game 3 on Saturday, 24 May: Boston wins at Detroit, 94-pts-80
Game 4 on Monday, 26 May: Boston loses at Detroit, 94-pts-75
Game 5 on Wednesday, 28 May: Detroit loses at Boston, 106-pts-102
Game 6 on Friday, 30 May: Boston wins at Detroit, 89-pts-81

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Trailing by eight points after three quarters, the Boston Celtics rallied in Detroit to defeat the Pistons 89-pts-81 and oust them from the 2008 NBA playoffs with a 4-games-2 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050 victory. The series 1050 victory improves the Boston Celtics best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 54-18 overall and 19-8 in the Semifinals. The series 1050 loss drops the Detroit Pistons best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 25-15 overall and 5-8 in the Semifinals. The win order for the victorious Boston Celtics in series 1050 was WLWLWW: Among best-of-7 playoff series, series 1050 thus becomes the fourth NBA Semifinals, the 21st NBA series (all rounds), and the 36th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games entering series 1050 Game 6, road teams down eight points after three quarters (such as the Boston Celtics) had only a 14-70 (.167) game record. With the series 1050 victory, the Boston Celtics now sport a sterling 30-0 series record upon having led 3-games-2 in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. The series 1050 loss marks the third consecutive NBA Semifinals loss for the Detroit Pistons; each has been in six games. It is ironic that series 1050 for the victorious Boston Celtics was the fourth NBA Semifinals series to follow the WLWLWW win order - the first NBA Semifinals series to follow the WLWLWW win order was series 520, in which the Detroit Pistons defeated the Boston Celtics in 1988, twenty years ago. The victorious Boston Celtics will now meet the Los Angeles Lakers in series 1052, the 2008 NBA Finals: The Lakers (85 best-of-7 playoff series in Los Angeles and eight in Minneapolis) and the Celtics (72 best-of-7 playoff series) rank first and second in NBA history, respectively, in most best-of-7 NBA playoff series played (tied for third with 40 each are the Detroit Pistons, the New York Knickerbockers, and the Philadelphia 76ers). The series 1052 meeting will be the eleventh best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Boston Celtics and the Minneapolis/Los Angeles Lakers; all ten previous meetings were in the NBA Finals. Of these ten, the first occurred while the Lakers were in Minneapolis (series 129, in 1959); the subsequent nine have taken place with the Lakers based in Los Angeles. Of these ten, Boston won the first eight, while Los Angeles won the last two (series 455 in 1985; series 497 in 1987). Other than the St. Louis Hawks (in series 122, fifty years ago in the 1958 NBA Finals), only the Los Angeles Lakers have vanquished the Boston Celtics in best-of-7 NBA Finals.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050 back in Massachusetts for Game 5, the Boston Celtics hosted and held on to defeat the Detroit Pistons 106-pts-102 to take a 3-games-2 series 1050 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Celtics have a towering 29-0 series record and a 15-14 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Pistons have a 4-9 series record and a 7-6 Game 6 record. Teams such as the Boston Celtics that post a WLWLW win order irrespective of site in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals series are on an eight-series winning streak stretching over three decades. The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to post a WLWLW win order but lose a best-of-7 Semifinals series was the NBA Golden State Warriors (to the Phoenix Suns in their 1976 NBA Semifinals series) in series 319. This streak includes the NHL Boston Bruins (in series 513 in the 1988 NHL Semifinals) and the Detroit Pistons (in series 520, also from twenty years ago in the 1988 NBA Semifinals). The Boston Celtics themselves have posted a WLWLW win order thrice in best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series, in 1959 (series 127, against the Syracuse Nationals), 1962 (series 148, against the Philadelphia Warriors), and 1965 (series 169, against the Philadelphia 76ers); Boston won all three series.

After Game 4: The Detroit Pistons hosted and defeated the Boston Celtics 94-pts-75 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Detroit Pistons have an 11-8 series record and a 9-10 Game 5 record, while the Boston Celtics have a 25-8 series record and a 22-11 Game 5 record.

After Game 3: For the first time in the 2008 NBA playoffs, the Boston Celtics won a game on the road, as they visited and defeated the Detroit Pistons 94-pts-80 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050. The 14-point win was the most lopsided victory by a road team in Game 3 of a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series since series 793, when in 1999 the San Antonio Spurs trounced the Trailblazers in Portland 85-pts-63 in Game 3 of their Semifinals series - the Spurs would go on to sweep Portland and win the 1999 NBA championship. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 35-3 series record and a 16-22 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Pistons have a 6-9 series record and an 11-4 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: For the first time in the 2008 NBA playoffs, the Boston Celtics lost a game on their home court, as the Detroit Pistons defeated them 103-pts-97 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have a 22-11 series record and an 18-15 Game 3 record, while the Detroit Pistons have a 13-6 series record and an 8-11 Game 3 record with a four-Game 3 losing streak. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through the 2008 NBA Quarterfinals, teams such as Boston that win Game 1 but lose Game 2 with Games 1-2 at home have a 47-23 (.671) series record. By contrast, NBA teams that lose Game 1 but win Game 2 with Games 1-2 at home have a 34-32 (.515) series record. So much for any purported advantages to taking winning momentum on the road.

After Game 1: Two nights after winning their best-of-7 NBA Quarterfinals series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Detroit Pistons 88-pts-79 for their ninth consecutive home-court victory in the 2008 NBA playoffs against no home-court losses. Boston thus takes a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a 46-5 series record and a 30-21 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Pistons have a 4-10 series record and a 7-7 Game 2 record. The last home team to win Game 1 of a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series by nine points, ironically, was the Detroit Pistons (in series 570, against the Chicago Bulls in 1990; those Pistons would oust Chicago in seven games and then win the 1990 NBA Finals against the Portland Trailblazers). The first home team to win Game 1 of a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series by nine points was the Boston Celtics, fifty years ago (in series 120, against the Philadelphia Warriors in 1958; those Celtics would oust Philadelphia in five games and then lose the 1958 NBA Finals to the St. Louis Hawks). In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics were last undefeated on their home court in 1986 (with an 8-0 game record), the season of their last NBA championship; their 9-0 home-court performance to date in the 2008 NBA playoffs is their best in best-of-7 play since 1976, when they also posted an NBA-best 9-0 home-court best-of-7 playoff game record en route to the 1976 NBA championship. By contrast, the Boston 0-6 road-court game record to date matches the 1971 Los Angeles Lakers and the 2004 Miami Heat for most road losses without a road win in a best-of-7 NBA playoff season.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Boston finished seven games ahead of Detroit. From 1947 through the 2008 NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season games, they have posted a 20-3 (.870) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1050 is the 40th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Detroit, and the 72nd for Boston. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Detroit has a 25-14 series record, a 5-7 Semifinals series record, and a 25-14 Game 1 record, while Boston has a 53-18 series record, an 18-8 Semifinals record, and a 51-20 Game 1 record. Series 1050 is the seventh best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Detroit and Boston: Boston won series 195 (1968 Quarterfinals), 449 (1985 Quarterfinals), 495 (1987 Semifinals), and 864 (2002 Quarterfinals), while Detroit won series 520 (1988 Semifinals) and 592 (1991 Quarterfinals).