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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Quarterfinals round - Series 1048.
Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: L.A. Lakers 57-25, Utah 54-28
Game 1 on Sunday, 04 May: Utah loses at L.A. Lakers, 109-pts-98
Game 2 on Wednesday, 07 May: Utah loses at L.A. Lakers, 120-pts-110
Game 3 on Friday, 09 May: L.A. Lakers lose at Utah, 104-pts-99
Game 4 on Sunday, 11 May: L.A. Lakers lose at Utah, 123-pts-115 (OT)
Game 5 on Wednesday 14 May: Utah at L.A. Lakers
Game 6 on Friday 16 May: L.A. Lakers at Utah
Game 7* on Monday 19 May: Utah at L.A. Lakers
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all at HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 244-122 (.667)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 73-32 (.695)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 94-28 (.770)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 41-7 (.854)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 230-136 (.628)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 73-32 (.695)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 89-33 (.730)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 37-11 (.771)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team winning Games 1-2 and losing Games 3-4 irrespective of site (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 105-52 (.669)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 33-15 (.688)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 47-12 (.797)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 23-3 (.885)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 96-61 (.611)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 29-19 (.604)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 43-16 (.729)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 19-7 (.731)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL at HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team winning Games 1-2 and losing Games 3-4 with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 94-34 (.734)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 29-8 (.784)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 44-9 (.830)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 21-1 (.955)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 87-41 (.680)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 27-10 (.730)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 40-13 (.755)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 17-5 (.773)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Utah Jazz defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 123-pts-115 at home in overtime to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1048 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 16-7 and a Game 5 record of 17-6, while the Utah Jazz have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 5 record of 1-4. Series 1048 Game 4 was the first best-of-7 NBA Quarterfinals overtime game since series 1016 Game 2 (in 2007), when the Utah Jazz hosted and defeated the Golden State Warriors 127-pts-117 in one overtime.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1048 in Salt Lake City for Games 3-4, the Utah Jazz hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 104-pts-99 to cut the Los Angeles series lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 31-5 and a Game 4 record of 25-11. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-11 (with the sole series win in this context in series 1012, over the Houston Rockets in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 4 record of 3-9. The Los Angeles Lakers lost the last best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which they had led 2-games-1, to the Phoenix Suns in series 977 (in the 2006 NBA Preliminary round); the loss ended a 15-series Laker winning streak in the wake of a 2-games-1 lead.

After Game 2: The Los Angeles Lakers hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 120-pts-110 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1048. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 34-1 and a Game 3 record of 19-16. The sole Lakers series loss in this context occurred in series 215, at the hands of the Boston Celtics in the 1969 NBA Finals. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-9 and a Game 3 record of 9-1. The sole Jazz series win in this context occurred in series 1012, over the Houston Rockets in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round.

After Game 1: The Los Angeles Lakers hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 109-pts-98 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1048. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Lakers have a series record of 47-7 and a Game 2 record of 35-19. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-10 and a Game 2 record of 1-10 with a nine-Game 2 losing streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers finished three games ahead of Utah. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Finals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted an 11-12 (.478) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1048 is the 24th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Utah, and the 84th for the Los Angeles Lakers. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Utah has a 10-13 series record, a 6-6 Quarterfinals series record, and a 12-11 Game 1 record, while the Los Angeles Lakers have a 56-27 series record, a 22-7 Quarterfinals record, and a 54-29 Game 1 record. Series 1048 is the fourth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Utah and Los Angeles Lakers; Utah has won two of the three previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meetings.