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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Quarterfinals round - Series 1046.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 66-16, Cleveland 45-37
Game 1 on Tuesday, 06 May: Cleveland loses at Boston, 76-pts-72
Game 2 on Thursday, 08 May: Cleveland loses at Boston, 89-pts-73
Game 3 on Saturday, 10 May: Boston loses at Cleveland, 108-pts-84
Game 4 on Monday, 12 May: Boston at Cleveland, 8:00pmEDT
Game 5 on Wednesday, 14 May: Cleveland at Boston
Game 6* on Friday, 16 May: Boston at Cleveland
Game 7* on Sunday, 18 May: Cleveland at Boston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 2-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team up 2-games-1 irrespective of site (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 576-197 (.745)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 172-57 (.751)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 234-52 (.818)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 104-20 (.839)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 381-392 (.493)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 112-117 (.489)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 145-141 (.507)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 64-60 (.516)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 2-game-1 at HHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team up 2-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 364-83 (.814)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 111-22 (.835)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 159-18 (.898)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 72-6 (.923)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 217-230 (.485)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 69-64 (.519)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 86-91 (.486)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 41-37 (.526)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up WWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team winning Games 1-2 and losing Game 3 irrespective of site (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 238-60 (.799)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 75-17 (.815)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 113-13 (.897)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 50-4 (.926)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 141-157 (.473)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 44-48 (.478)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 67-59 (.532)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 28-26 (.519)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up WWL at HHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team winning Games 1-2 and losing Game 3 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 199-39 (.836)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 67-9 (.882)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 101-10 (.910)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 47-2 (.959)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 110-128 (.462)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 39-37 (.513)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 58-53 (.523)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 27-22 (.551)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1042 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1046 in Ohio for Games 3-4, the host Cleveland Cavaliers handily defeated the Boston Celtics 108-pts-84 in Game 3, thereby cutting the Boston series 1046 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 34-3 series record and a 16-21 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 2-3 series record and a perfect 5-0 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 89-pts-73 to take a 2-games-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1046 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a perfect series record of 29-0 and a Game 3 record of 10-19. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 1-4 and a Game 3 record of 3-2. The sole Cleveland series victory in the wake of a 2-games-nil deficit occurred in series 1017 (against the Detroit Pistons in the 2007 NBA Semifinals).

After Game 1: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 76-pts-72 to take a 1-game-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1046 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 45-5 and a Game 2 record of 29-21. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 2-5 and a Game 2 record of 2-5 with a four-Game 2 losing streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Boston finished 21 games ahead of Cleveland. From 1947 through the 2008 NBA Preliminary round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 21 regular-season games, they have posted a 3-0 (1.000) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1046 is the lucky 13th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Cleveland, and the 71st for Boston. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Cleveland has a 7-5 series record, a 3-2 Quarterfinals series record, and a 5-7 Game 1 record, while Boston has a 52-18 series record, a 16-5 Quarterfinals record, and a 50-20 Game 1 record. Series 1046 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics; the teams split their previous two best-of-7 NBA playoff series meetings.