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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1045.
Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 55-27, Utah 54-28
Game 1 on Saturday, 19 April: Utah wins at Houston, 93-pts-82
Game 2 on Monday, 21 April: Utah wins at Houston, 90-pts-84
Game 3 on Thursday, 24 April: Houston wins at Utah, 94-pts-92
Game 4 on Saturday, 26 April: Houston loses at Utah, 86-pts-82
Game 5 on Tuesday, 29 April: Utah loses at Houston, 95-pts-69
Game 6 on Friday, 02 May: Houston loses at Utah, 113-pts-91

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Utah Jazz hosted and defeated the Houston Rockets 113-pts-91 for a 4-games-2 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045. With the series 1045 win, the Utah Jazz improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 10-13 overall and 2-1 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1045 loss, the Houston Rockets see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 12-13 overall (with a five-series losing streak) and 0-4 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Utah Jazz in series 1045 was WWLWLW: Series 1045 thus becomes third NBA Preliminary-round series, the 17th NBA series (all rounds), and the 32nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion.

After Game 5: The Houston Rockets hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 95-pts-69 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045 Game 5, thus cutting the Jazz series 1045 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Utah Jazz have a 3-0 series record and a 2-1 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Rockets have a 2-7 series record and a 4-5 Game 6 record. Through five games of series 1045, the win/site order for the leading Utah Jazz has been WWLWL @ VVHHV. Only once before in the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series has the leading team posted such a win/site order through five games: In series 493, the Seattle Supersonics did so in the 1987 NBA Quarterfinals, and won Game 6 to win the series. Their opponents? The Houston Rockets.

After Game 4: For the first home-court win in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045, the Utah Jazz hosted and defeated the Houston Rockets 86-pts-82 to take a 3-games-1 series 1045 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 6-0 and a Game 5 record of 4-2. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 1-5 and a Game 5 record of 4-2. The sole Houston comeback upon trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1 was in series 691, in which the Rockets rallied to defeat the Phoenix Suns in seven games in their 1995 NBA Quarterfinals series en route to the 1995 NBA championship. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round playoff series from 2003 through 2007, inclusive, teams such as Utah which take a 3-games-1 lead with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-4 at home have a 0-5 Game 5 record.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045 having moved from Utah to Texas for Games 3-4, the visiting Houston Rockets defeated the host Utah Jazz 94-pts-92 to narrow the Utah series 1045 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 6-1 with an active six-series winning streak, and a Game 4 record of 5-2. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 3-8 and a Game 4 record of 5-6. Houston trailed Game 3 by six points after three quarters. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2007, inclusive, road teams down six points after three quarters had a game record of only 9-65 (.122). Series 1045 is only the eighth best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which the road team has won the first three games (the others [Game 1 road team listed first]: series 155, Cincinnati Royals vs. Boston Celtics [winner] in the 1963 NBA Semifinals; series 211, San Francisco Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers [winner] in the 1969 NBA Quarterfinals; series 493, Seattle Supersonics [winner] vs. Houston Rockets in the 1987 NBA Quarterfinals; series 647, Chicago Bulls [winner] vs. Phoenix Suns in the 1993 NBA Finals; series 668, Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets [winner] in the 1994 NBA Quarterfinals; series 693, Houston Rockets [winner] vs. San Antonio Spurs in the 1995 NBA Semifinals; series 946, Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks [winner] in the 2005 NBA Preliminary round - the astute observer will note the presence of the Houston Rockets in four of the last five such series, excluding the current one).

After Game 2: The Utah Jazz visited and defeated the Houston Rockets 90-pts-84 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Utah Jazz have a 7-0 series record and a 2-5 Game 3 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Rockets have a 2-9 series record and a 9-2 Game 3 record. Series 1045 thus becomes only the seventeenth best-of-7 NBA playoff series (in the context of 363 best-of-7 NBA playoff series completed before 2008) in which the road team has won both Games 1 and 2. Only once before has the road team won both Games 1 and 2 in a best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round: In series 946, the Houston Rockets did so against the Dallas Mavericks in their 2004 NBA Preliminary-round series ... Houston would lose that series in seven games.

After Game 1: The Utah Jazz visited and defeated the Houston Rockets 93-pts-82 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Utah Jazz have an 8-3 series record and a 7-4 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Rockets have a 4-10 series record and a 3-11 Game 2 record with an active eight-Game 2 losing streak. The 11-point road victory for Utah marks the largest best-of-7 NBA Preliminary-round Game 1 road victory since last season, when the Golden State Warriors visited and bested the Dallas Mavericks by a dozen points in Game 1 of series 1009 en route to a series 1009 win. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2007, inclusive, road teams winning Game 1 by double-digit victory margins (such as Utah in series 1045) had a 19-11 (.633) series record - better than the 54-41 (.568) series record by best-of-7 NBA road Game 1 winners overall, but perhaps not to a statistically significant extent.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Houston finished one game ahead of Utah. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Finals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season games, they have posted a 14-15 (.483) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1045 is the 23rd best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Utah, and the 25th for Houston. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Utah has a 9-13 series record, a 1-1 Prelim-round series record, and an 11-11 Game 1 record, while Houston has a 12-12 series record, a 0-3 Prelim-round record, and a 10-14 Game 1 record. Series 1045 is the fourth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Utah and Houston; Houston won series 671 (in the 1994 NBA Semifinals) but Utah won series 743 (in the 1997 NBA Semifinals) and series 1012 (in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round).