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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1038.
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 66-16, Atlanta 37-45
Game 1 on Sunday, 20 April: Atlanta loses at Boston, 104-pts-81
Game 2 on Wednesday, 23 April: Atlanta loses at Boston, 96-pts-77
Game 3 on Saturday, 26 April: Boston loses at Atlanta, 102-pts-93
Game 4 on Monday, 28 April: Boston loses at Atlanta, 97-pts-92
Game 5 on Wednesday, 30 April: Atlanta loses at Boston, 110-pts-85
Game 6 on Friday, 02 May: Boston loses at Atlanta, 103-pts-100
Game 7 on Sunday, 04 May: Atlanta loses at Boston, 99-pts-65

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Completing a series in which the home team won every game, the Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Atlanta Hawks 99-pts-65 for a 4-games-3 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038 victory. With the series 1038 win, the Boston Celtics improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 52-18 overall and 2-2 in the NBA Preliminary round. With the series 1038 loss, the Atlanta Hawks see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 2-15 overall with a 14-series losing streak and 0-1 in the NBA Preliminary round. The victorious Boston Celtics in series 1038 posted a win order of WWLLWLW: Series 1038 thus becomes the second NBA Preliminary-round series, the 17th NBA series (all rounds), and the 26th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. Series 1038 Game 7 becomes the eighteenth Boston Celtics Game 7 victory, an MLB/NBA/NHL-high, against five Game 7 losses; however, series 1038 Game 7 was also the first Boston Celtics Game 7 win in twenty years (the last: series 516 Game 7, in the 1988 NBA Quarterfinals ... against, ironically, the Atlanta Hawks). The thirty-four point series 1038 Game 7 margin of victory is the fourth-largest best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7 margin of victory ever.

After Game 6: In a series in which the home team has won every game, the Atlanta Hawks "held serve," hosting and defeating the Boston Celtics 103-pts-100 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038 at 3-games-all. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series Game 7s, the Boston Celtics have a 17-5 record, while the Atlanta Hawks have a 0-2 record. The seventeen Game 7 wins by the Boston Celtics are an MLB/NBA/NHL-high; next are the twelve Game 7 wins by the NHL Toronto Maple Leafs (whose nine Game 7 losses are also an MLB/NBA/NHL-high). In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2007, inclusive, home teams in Game 7s have a 78-19 (.804) record overall, and a 5-2 (.714) record in the Preliminary round - the first NBA team to lose a Preliminary-round Game 7 at home was the Boston Celtics in series 941, to the Indiana Pacers in their 2005 series. The Atlanta Hawks trailed series 1038 Game 6 by 12 points after one quarter. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams such as Atlanta that trailed by a dozen points after one quarter, irrespective of site, had a game record of only 12-48 (.200). Once before in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game had Atlanta trailed by 12 after one quarter and won: In series 239 Game 2, the Hawks trailed 26-pts-14 in New York against the Knickerbockers in their 1971 NBA Quarterfinals series, but rallied to win 113-pts-104.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038 back in Massachusetts for Game 5, the host Boston Celtics defeated the Atlanta Hawks 110-pts-85 to take a 3-games-2 series 1038 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Celtics have a perfect 27-0 series record and a 15-12 Game 6 record. When trailing 3-games-2, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 6 record of 2-2.

After Game 4: Trailing by ten points after three quarters, the host Atlanta Hawks rallied to defeat the Boston Celtics 97-pts-92 and tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have a 23-8 series record with an active five-series losing streak, and a 20-11 Game 5 record with an active six-Game 5 losing streak, while the Atlanta Hawks have a 1-3 series record with an active three-series losing streak, and a 2-2 Game 5 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series back to and including 1947, teams trailing by ten points after three quarters had a game record of only 1-89 (.011). The only other team to surmount a ten-point deficit after three quarters was, ironically enough, the Boston Celtics, in Indiana vs. the Pacers in series 890 Game 1 (in their 2003 NBA Preliminary-round series). In best-of-7 NBA playoff history, teams such as Boston with a win/site order of WWLL @ HHVV have a strong 43-9 (.827) series record, but are on a current three-series losing streak.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038 in Georgia for Games 3-4, the host Atlanta Hawks defeated the Boston Celtics 102-pts-93 to cut the Celtic series 1038 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 33-3 (but only 2-3 in the last five such series) and a Game 4 record of 16-20; when trailing 2-games-1, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 0-10 and a Game 4 record of 3-7.

After Game 2: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Atlanta Hawks 96-pts-77 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 28-0 and a Game 3 record of 10-18; when trailing 2-games-nil, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 0-8 and a Game 3 record of 4-4. Boston has defeated Atlanta by a combined 42 points in series 1038 Games 1 and 2. That combined 42-point margin of victory ties for the second-largest Game 1-2 combined margin of victory by a team up 2-games-nil in the history of best-of-7 NBA Preliminary-round series. In series 922, the New Jersey Nets won Games 1 and 2 by 42 combined points over the New York Knickerbockers en route to a four-game sweep of their 2004 NBA Preliminary-round series. In series 976, the San Antonio Spurs won Games 1 and 2 by 43 combined points over the Sacramento Kings en route to a six-game win of their 2006 NBA Preliminary-round series.

After Game 1: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Atlanta Hawks 104-pts-81 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1038. The loss extends the Atlanta Hawks losing streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series first games to 13 straight. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 44-5 and a Game 2 record of 28-21; when trailing 1-game-nil, the Atlanta Hawks have a series record of 0-14 and a Game 2 record of 6-8.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Boston finished 29 games ahead of Atlanta. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Finals, never before had two best-of-7 NBA playoff series opponents been separated by so many as 29 regular-season games. The previous largest separation in terms of regular-season games between two best-of-7 NBA playoff series opponents was 26 games, between the 65-17 Los Angeles Lakers and the 39-43 Seattle Supersonics in series 496, in the 1987 NBA Semifinals - Los Angeles won the series in a four-game sweep. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1038 is the 17th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Atlanta, and the 70th for Boston. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Atlanta has a 2-14 series record, a 0-0 Prelim-round series record, and a 2-14 Game 1 record, while Boston has a 51-18 series record, a 1-2 Prelim-round record, and a 49-20 Game 1 record. Series 1038 is the fifth best-of-7 meeting between Atlanta and Boston; Boston won the previous four against the Atlanta Hawks (series 254 in the 1972 NBA Quarterfinals; series 269 in the 1973 NBA Quarterfinals; series 466 in the 1986 NBA Quarterfinals; series 516 in the 1988 NBA Quarterfinals), and had a 3-1 series record against the St. Louis Hawks (falling only in the 1958 NBA Finals to the Hawks).