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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1053.
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 97-65, Boston 95-67
Game 1 on Friday, 10 October: Boston wins at Tampa Bay, 2-runs-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 11 October: Boston loses at Tampa Bay, 9-runs-8 (11 inn)
Game 3 on Monday, 13 October: Tampa Bay wins at Boston, 9-runs-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 14 October: Tampa Bay wins at Boston, 13-runs-4
Game 5 on Thursday, 16 October: Tampa Bay loses at Boston, 8-runs-7
Game 6 on Saturday, 18 October: Boston wins at Tampa Bay, 4-runs-2
Game 7 on Sunday, 19 October: Boston loses at Tampa Bay, 3-runs-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Tampa Bay Rays hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-runs-1 to complete a 4-games-3 victory in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053. The series 1053 victory is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory for the Tampa Bay Rays in their first best-of-7 MLB playoff series. With the series 1053 loss, the Boston Red Sox see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 9-9 overall and 3-5 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Rays in series 1053 was LWWWLLW: Series 1053 thus becomes the first MLB playoff series (all rounds) and the fourteenth MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series to follow this win order to completion; the first, ironically, was series 174, by the victorious Boston Celtics in the 1966 NBA Finals.

After Game 6: Setting the stage for yet another very, very highly improbable comeback series victory in the MLB Semifinals, the Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-runs-2 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053 Game 6 to tie series 1053 at 3-games-all. The Game 7 record for the Boston Red Sox is 4-5 (when counting Game 8 from the 1912 World Series as Game 7, since Game 2 of that Series ended in a tie in what was planned to be a best-of-7 format series); Tampa Bay, of course, is playing in its first Game 7. Teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays that had led a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1 have a home Game 7 record of 2-6 overall and 1-3 in the Semifinals: The two Game 7 winners on their home field were the Boston Red Sox in series 8 (the 1912 World Series) and the Atlanta Braves in series 624 (the 1992 MLB Semifinals or National League Championship Series). So it is that the 1912 Red Sox set a favorable precedent for the 2008 Rays against the 2008 Red Sox. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays that lose Game 1, win Games 2-4, and lose Games 5-6 irrespective of site have a 0-3 Game 7 record (the three losers: the St. Louis Cardinals [in series 721, the 1996 National League Championship Series], the Chicago Cubs [in series 904, the 2003 National League Championship Series], and the Cleveland Indians [in series 1020, the 2007 American League Championship Series - to the Boston Red Sox]).

After Game 5: Surmounting the second-largest deficit ever in a best-of-7 format MLB playoff game, the Boston Red Sox trailed 7-runs-nil as late as 6.5 innings into MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053 Game 5, but rallied to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston 8-runs-7. The series 1053 lead for Tampa Bay is thus narrowed to 3-games-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-3 series record and a perfect 6-0 Game 6 record. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB playoff series from 1905 through 2007, teams leading 3-games-1 that lost Game 5 (such as Tampa Bay) and then lost Game 6 at home had only a 2-6 series record. The series 1053 Game 5 comeback by Boston is the second-largest in-game comeback ever in a best-of-7 format MLB playoff game, second only to series 22 Game 4 (in which the Philadelphia Athletics trailed the Chicago Cubs in Philadelphia by eight runs after 6.5 innings only to plate ten runs in the bottom of the seventh for a 10-runs-8 win in that 1929 World Series game). Before series 1053 Game 5: home teams down 5+ runs after 2.5 innings had a 0-34 game record; home teams down 5+ runs after three innings had a 0-30 game record; down 5+ runs after 3.5 innings, 0-44 game record; down 5+ after four, 0-40; down 5+ after 4.5, 0-57; down 5+ runs after five innings, 0-49. The Tampa Bay Rays plated 38 total runs in series 1053 Games 2-5, which is the most ever in four consecutive games in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, breaking the old record of 37 total runs, set in Games 1-4 of series 25 (by the New York Yankees in the 1932 World Series) and of series 650 (by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 1993 World Series). Had Tampa Bay and its seven series 1053 Game 5 runs held up for the victory, then the Rays' 38 runs would have been the most ever in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series lasting five games, topping the old mark of 35 set in series 6 by the Philadelphia Athletics (in the 1910 World Series).

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Rays visited and defeated the Boston Red Sox 13-runs-4 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-2 series record and a 4-1 Game 5 record. Thrice have the Boston Red Sox surmounted 3-games-1 deficits in best-of-7 MLB playoff series for series wins; as such, the Red Sox and the NHL Vancouver Canucks are tied at three series each for most 3-games-1 deficits surmounted for MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series victories. In the Red Sox' case, one of those series in which Boston trailed 3-games-1 was series 936, the 2004 American League Championship Series in which Boston had actually trailed the New York Yankees 3-games-nil. In series 936 Game 3, the Yankees set a best-of-7 MLB playoff game record with 19 runs scored. Given that Tampa Bay tallied 13 runs in series 1053 Game 4, it remains to be seen whether such a pounding will galvanize another comeback by the team that leads Major League Baseball in such comebacks. The 13-run series 1053 Game 4 by Tampa Bay is now tied with series 25 Game 4 by the New York Yankees (in the 1932 World Series) for the third-most best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 4 runs plated by one team; first and second on this list, respectively, are the Toronto Blue Jays (15 runs) and the Philadelphia Phillies (14 runs) in series 650 Game 4 (in the 1993 World Series). The Tampa Bay Rays have scored a total of 31 runs in series 1053 Games 2-4, thus setting a best-of-7 MLB playoff series record for most runs by one team in Games 2-4; the previous mark was 29 runs, set by the Toronto Blue Jays in series 650 (the 1993 World Series) against the Philadelphia Phillies.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053 in Massachusetts for Games 3-5, the visiting Tampa Bay Rays defeated the host Boston Red Sox 9-runs-1 to take a 2-games-1 series lead. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a 2-4 series record and a 2-4 Game 4 record. After suffering a shutout in series 1053 Game 1, the Tampa Bay Rays have scored 18 runs in Games 2 and 3: Those 18 runs in Games 2 and 3 combined are the third-most runs by one team in Games 2 and 3 combined in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, behind only the 1993 Atlanta Braves (23 combined runs in Games 2 and 3 of series 649) and the 2004 New York Yankees (22, series 936 ... against, ironically, the Boston Red Sox). In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams losing Game 1 and winning Games 2-3 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road (such as Tampa Bay in series 1053) have an 11-2 series record. The two losses in this situation were sustained by the Chicago Cubs in series 904 (the 2003 National League Championship Series) and by the New York Yankees in series 905 (the 2003 World Series) - in both cases, the opponent was the Florida Marlins. So it is that the 2003 edition of the cross-state rivals to the Tampa Bay Rays offers favorable precedents to the Boston Red Sox against Tampa Bay in series 1053.

After Game 2: Scoring their first runs and winning their first game in best-of-7 format MLB playoff competition, the Tampa Bay Rays hosted and (in 11 innings) defeated the Boston Red Sox 9-runs-8 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a 5-4 series record and a 4-5 Game 3 record (with an active five-Game 3 losing streak). The seventeen total runs in series 1053 Game 2 is tied for the fourth-most best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 2 total runs (all rounds), and is the most since the 19 total runs in series 1020 Game 2, in which the Cleveland Indians defeated Boston 13-runs-6 in the 2007 American League Championship Series. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series from 1905 to the present, teams such as Boston that win Game 1 by shutout but lose Game 2 by one run have a 1-4 series record with an active four-series losing streak: The sole victor in that situation was the New York Yankees in series 76 (the 1949 World Series); one of the four vanquished in that situation was the Boston Red Sox in series 306 (the 1975 World Series).

After Game 1: The Boston Red Sox visited Tampa Bay and defeated the Rays 2-runs-nil to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053. The Rays thus suffer a shutout in their first best-of-7 MLB playoff game. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a 6-4 series record and a 4-6 Game 2 record. Series 1053 is the ninth best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the home team was shut out in Game 1, and the first since series 820, in which the Seattle Mariners shut out the Yankees in New York 2-runs-nil in Game 1 of the 2000 American League Championship Series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2008 regular season, the Tampa Bay Rays finished two games ahead of the Boston Red Sox. From 1905 through the 2008 NHL and NBA Finals, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a 4-5 (.444) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1053 is the 18th best-of-7 playoff series for the Boston Red Sox, and the first for the Tampa Bay Rays. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a 9-8 series record (with an active four-series winning streak), a 3-4 Semifinals-round series record, and a 10-7 Game 1 record. Series 1053 is the first best-of-7 meeting between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays.