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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2007 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1002.
Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: Buffalo 53-22-7=113pts, Ottawa 48-25-9=105pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 10 May: Ottawa wins at Buffalo, 5-goals-2
Game 2 on Saturday, 12 May: Ottawa wins at Buffalo, 4-goals-3 (2OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 14 May: Buffalo loses at Ottawa, 1-goal-nil
Game 4 on Wednesday, 16 May: Buffalo wins at Ottawa, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 May: Ottawa wins at Buffalo, 3-goals-2 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: Scoring 9:32 into the first overtime period on Buffalo ice, the Ottawa Senators defeated the Sabres 3-goals-2 and eliminated them from the 2007 NHL playoffs with a 4-games-1 win of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002. The series 1002 win improves the Ottawa Senators best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 8-9 overall and 1-1 in the Semifinals round; the series 1002 loss drops the Buffalo Sabres best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 15-23 overall and 2-4 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Ottawa Senators in series 1002 was WWWLW: Series 1002 thus becomes the 12th NHL Semifinals series, the 41st NHL series (all rounds), and the 68th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. The Ottawa Senators had led this series 3-games-nil, so the series win lengthens the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series winning streak to 21 among teams taking a three-games-nil series lead. Series 1002 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series win (in four tries) by Ottawa over Buffalo; Buffalo emerged victorious in series 724 (in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round), 774 (in the 1999 NHL Preliminary round), and 965 (in the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals).

After Game 4: Staving off elimination from the 2007 NHL playoffs, the Buffalo Sabres visited and defeated the Ottawa Senators 3-goals-2 to lower the Ottawa best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 6-0 and a Game 5 record of 5-1 with a five-Game 5 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 0-10 and a Game 5 record of 4-6. The Buffalo Sabres tallied the first goal of series 1002 Game 4 nine seconds into the game - tying the mark for the third-fastest goal to open a best-of-7 format NHL playoff game, next to series 324 Game 4 (in which the Los Angeles Kings scored six seconds into their 1977 NHL Quarterfinals series game against the Boston Bruins in Los Angeles) and series 326 Game 6 (in which the Montreal Canadiens scored seven seconds into their 1977 NHL Semifinals series game against the New York Islanders in New York), and tying series 97 Game 5 (in which the Detroit Red Wings scored nine seconds into their 1954 NHL Semifinals game against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Detroit) and series 180 Game 4 (in which the Chicago Blackhawks scored nine seconds into their 1967 NHL Semifinals game against the Maple Leafs in Toronto).

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002 in the Canadian capital for Games 3-4, the Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 1-goal-nil in Game 3 for a 3-games-nil series 1002 lead. The Ottawa Senators thus lead a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil for the first time. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 0-7 and a Game 4 record of 5-2. The Buffalo Sabres thus become the 260th MLB/NBA/NHL team to attempt to win a best-of-7 NHL playoff series upon trailing 3-games-nil. The latest such attempt (by the NBA Chicago Bulls in series 1013) is in progress; in the prior 258, three succeeded.

After Game 2: Winning a game that the Buffalo Sabres had sent to overtime by scoring with six seconds left in regulation, the Ottawa Senators defeated the Sabres 4-goals-3 with a goal 4:58 into the second overtime period. Ottawa thus takes a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002. In their history of best-of-7 playoff series, the Buffalo Sabres have a 0-13 series record and a 6-7 Game 3 record when down 2-games-nil. Among teams trailing best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, only the Boston Bruins (0-25) have a worse series record than the Sabres, with the NBA New York Knickerbockers (0-12) in third place. Ottawa now has a 1-8 Game 2 record upon having won Game 1 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series. In the history of best-of-7 NBA/NHL Semifinals-round playoff series, teams winning Games 1-2 on the road (eg. Ottawa) have a 28-1 (.966) series record, with the sole loss sustained by the Boston Bruins (to the Detroit Red Wings in the 1945 NHL Semifinals). Ottawa has a 0-0 series record and a 0-0 Game 3 record upon leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil.

After Game 1: The Ottawa Senators visited and bested the Buffalo Sabres 5-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 5-3 (and an active three-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 0-8 (Ottawa won Game 1 and lost Game 2 of their 2007 NHL Preliminary- and Quarterfinals-round series to extend this streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 1-13 and a Game 2 record of 1-13. The series 1002 Game 1 loss breaks the Buffalo best-of-7 Game 1 winning streak at five. When the Buffalo Sabres trail a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, their series record is 0-13 upon losing Game 2 to fall behind 2-games-nil, and 1-0 upon winning Game 2 to tie the series 1-game-all: The sole Game 2 win in that situation occurred in series 782, when the Sabres went on to defeat the Boston Bruins in six games in their 1999 NHL Quarterfinals series (en route to a berth in the 1999 NHL Finals for Buffalo). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series from 1939 through 2006, road teams winning Game 1 by three goals (such as Ottawa in 2007) have a Game 2 record of 4-6 and a series record of 9-1 (with the sole loss sustained by the New York Rangers in series 267, to the Chicago Blackhawks in the 1973 NHL Semifinals).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, Buffalo finished eight points ahead of Ottawa. From 1939 through the 2007 NHL Quarterfinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season points, they have posted a 12-5 (.706) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002 is the 17th best-of-7 playoff series for Ottawa, and the 38th for Buffalo. In best-of-7 playoff series, Ottawa has a 7-9 series record, a 0-1 Semifinals-round series record, and an 8-8 Game 1 record, while Buffalo has a 15-22 series record, a 2-3 Semifinals-round record, and a 23-14 Game 1 record. Series 1002 is the fourth best-of-7 meeting between Ottawa and Buffalo: Buffalo won all three previous meetings, taking series 724 (in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round), 774 (in the 1999 NHL Preliminary round), and 965 (in the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals) from Ottawa.