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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2007 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 998.
New York Rangers vs Buffalo Sabres

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: Buffalo 53-22-7=113pts, New York Rangers 42-30-10=94pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 25 April: N.Y. Rangers lose at Buffalo, 5-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 27 April: N.Y. Rangers lose at Buffalo, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Sunday, 29 April: Buffalo loses at N.Y. Rangers, 2-goals-1 (2OT)
Game 4 on Tuesday, 1 May: Buffalo loses at N.Y. Rangers, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Friday, 4 May: N.Y. Rangers lose at Buffalo, 2-goals-1 (OT)
Game 6 on Sunday, 6 May: Buffalo wins at N.Y. Rangers, 5-goals-4

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Securing the first road win in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998, the Buffalo Sabres defeated the host New York Rangers 5-goals-4, thereby eliminating the Rangers from the 2007 NHL playoffs. With the series 998 victory, the Buffalo Sabres improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 15-22 overall and 6-9 in the NHL Quarterfinals. With the series 998 loss, the New York Rangers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 23-32 overall and 9-11 in the NHL Quarterfinals. The win order for the victorious Buffalo Sabres in series 998 was WWLLWW: Series 998 thus becomes the sixth NHL Quarterfinals series, the 32nd NHL series (all rounds), and the 60th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to the conclusion of the series. Buffalo thus advances to play the Ottawa Senators in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1002, in the 2007 NHL Semifinals (Eastern Conference Finals).

After Game 5: Trailing by one goal with just nine seconds left in Game 5, the Buffalo Sabres on home ice scored the tying goal with eight seconds left, and defeated the visiting New York Rangers 2-goals-1 with a goal 4:39 into the first overtime period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2006, teams such as Buffalo that trailed by one goal with nine seconds left, irrespective of site (home or road), had a game record of only 2-656 (.003). Thus, the victorious Sabres at one point had a historical likelihood of 99.7% of losing Game 5. The Game 5 victory gives the Buffalo Sabres a 3-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 6 record of 4-1. When trailing 3-games-2, the New York Rangers have a series record of 1-15 and a Game 6 record of 4-12. The sole Buffalo series loss under these circumstances occurred in series 832, when the Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Sabres in the 2001 NHL Quarterfinals. The sole Ranger series win under these circumstances occurred in series 663 (the last time that the New York Rangers trailed a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2), when they defeated the New Jersey Devils in the 1994 NHL Semifinals en route to the 1994 NHL championship.

After Game 4: Tying best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998 at 2-games-all, the New York Rangers hosted and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 2-goals-1. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Buffalo Sabres have a 3-10 series record and a 6-7 Game 5 record, while the New York Rangers have a 9-12 series record and a 10-11 Game 5 record. The three Buffalo best-of-7 NHL playoff series wins in the wake of a 2-games-all tie occurred in series 297 (over the Montreal Canadiens in six games in the 1975 NHL Semifinals), series 724 (over the Ottawa Senators in seven games in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round), and series 960 (over the Philadelphia Flyers in six games in the 2006 Preliminary round).

After Game 3: The New York Rangers scored 16:43 into double overtime on home ice to defeat the Buffalo Sabres 2-goals-1, thus halving the Sabres' best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 9-3 and a Game 4 record of 6-6. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Rangers have a series record of 6-18 and a Game 4 record of 14-10.

After Game 2: Despite trailing by a goal after the second period, the Buffalo Sabres rallied for two third-period goals to defeat the New York Rangers in Buffalo 3-goals-2, thereby taking a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 9-1 (with an active seven-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 5-5. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New York Rangers have a series record of 1-16 and a Game 3 record of 8-9. The sole Buffalo series loss in this situation occurred in series 310, when the Sabres fell to the New York Islanders in the 1976 NHL Quarterfinals. The sole New York series win in this situation occurred in series 700, when the Rangers defeated the Montreal Canadiens in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 1: The Buffalo Sabres hosted and defeated the New York Rangers 5-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 13-9 and a Game 2 record of 10-12. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Rangers have a series record of 8-22 and a Game 2 record of 13-17. In the full history of continuous best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2007 Preliminary round, teams winning Game 1 by three goals (such as Buffalo) have a 49-16 (.754) series record with an active five-series winning streak. In series 990, Buffalo also won Game 1 by three goals, and went on to oust the New York Islanders in their 2007 NHL Preliminary round series just completed. In series 552, however, the Sabres also won Game 1 by three goals, but were defeated by the Montreal Canadiens in their 1990 NHL Preliminary round series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, Buffalo finished 19 points ahead of the New York Rangers. From 1905 through the 2007 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 19 regular-season points, they have posted a 3-8 (.273) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 998 is the 55th best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Rangers, and the 37th for Buffalo. In best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Rangers have a 23-31 series record, a 9-10 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 24-30 Game 1 record, while Buffalo has a 14-22 series record, a 5-9 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 22-14 Game 1 record. Series 998 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the New York Rangers and Buffalo.