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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2007 NHL Preliminary round - Series 991.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New Jersey Devils

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: New Jersey 49-24-9=107pts, Tampa Bay 44-33-5=93pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 12 April: Tampa Bay loses at New Jersey, 5-goals-3
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: Tampa Bay wins at New Jersey, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Monday, 16 April: New Jersey loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 18 April: New Jersey wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 5 on Friday, 20 April: Tampa Bay loses at New Jersey, 3-goals-nil
Game 6 on Sunday, 22 April: New Jersey wins at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The New Jersey Devils visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to secure a 4-games-2 victory in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991. The series 991 win improves the New Jersey Devils' best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 22-13 overall and 9-8 in the Preliminary round. The series 991 loss drops the Tampa Bay Lightning's best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 5-4 overall and 2-3 in the Preliminary round. The win order by the victorious New Jersey Devils in series 991 was WLLWWW: Among best-of-7 playoff series, series 991 thus becomes the eighth NHL Preliminary-round series, the 18th NHL series, and the 26th MLB/NBA/NHL series to follow this win order.

After Game 5: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991 having returned to New Jersey for Game 5, the host Devils defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-nil to take a 3-games-2 series 991 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 10-4 and a Game 6 record of 6-8. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 6 record of 1-1. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round playoff series from 1987 through 2006, teams leading 3-games-2 with a win order of WLLWW (such as New Jersey) have a 10-2 series record. Both losses in that situation were sustained by the Devils, in series 578 (to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1991 NHL Preliminary round) and in series 773 (to Pittsburgh in the 1999 Preliminary round).

After Game 4: Scoring 12:54 into the first overtime period, the New Jersey Devils visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the New Jersey Devils have an 8-8 series record and an 11-5 Game 5 record, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-1 series record (with an active three-series winning streak) and a 2-2 Game 5 record. Series 991 returns to New Jersey on Friday 20 April 2007 for Game 5.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991 in Florida for Games 3-4, the Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-2 to take a 2-games-1 series 991 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 2-1 series record and a 1-2 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a 2-9 series record (with a three-series losing streak) and a 7-4 Game 4 record. The two New Jersey series wins in this situation occurred in series 660 (over the Boston Bruins in the 1994 NHL Quarterfinals) and series 810 (over the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2000 NHL Semifinals; the Devils trailed series 810 by a 3-games-1 margin after four games).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-2 series record and a 3-2 Game 3 record, while the New Jersey Devils have a 10-9 series record and an 11-8 Game 3 record. With a win/site order of LW@VV in the first two games of series 991, the Tampa Bay Lightning are following in the path of their previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series (series 957 vs. the Ottawa Senators in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round): Tampa lost that series in five games.

After Game 1: The New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-3 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 13-4 with an active nine-series winning streak, and a Game 2 record of 10-7 with a Game 2-winning streak of four games. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 2 record of 3-2.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, New Jersey finished 14 points ahead of Tampa Bay. From 1905 through the 2006 MLB Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 14 regular-season points, they have posted a 9-7 (.563) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 991 is the ninth best-of-7 playoff series for Tampa Bay, and the 35th for New Jersey. In best-of-7 playoff series, Tampa Bay has a 5-3 series record, a 2-2 Prelim-round series record, and a 3-5 Game 1 record, while New Jersey has a 21-13 series record, an 8-8 Prelim-round record, and a 17-17 Game 1 record. Series 991 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between Tampa Bay and New Jersey: New Jersey won the only previous meeting between the two teams (in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 882, in the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals).