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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2007 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1018.
Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 58-24, Utah 51-31
Game 1 on Sunday, 20 May: Utah loses at San Antonio, 108-pts-100
Game 2 on Tuesday, 22 May: Utah loses at San Antonio, 105-pts-96
Game 3 on Saturday, 26 May: San Antonio loses at Utah, 109-pts-83
Game 4 on Monday, 28 May: San Antonio wins at Utah, 91-pts-79
Game 5 on Wednesday, 30 May: Utah loses at San Antonio, 109-pts-84

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018 back in Texas, the San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 109-pts-84 to post a 4-games-1 series 1018 victory. The 25-point margin of victory was the largest in a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals elimination game since series 843, in which the Los Angeles Lakers swept San Antonio via a 29-point win in Game 4 of their 2001 NBA Semifinals series. With the series 1018 victory, the San Antonio Spurs improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 21-14 overall and 4-5 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1018 loss, the Utah Jazz see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 9-13 overall and 2-4 in the Semifinals round. San Antonio led series 1018 Game 5 by 27 points after the third quarter: In the history of best-of-7 format NBA playoff games, teams leading by 27+ points after three quarters had a 53-0 game record entering series 1018 Game 5. The win order for the victorious San Antonio Spurs was WWLWW in series 1018: Series 1018 thus becomes the ninth NBA Semifinals series, the 42nd NBA series (all rounds), and the 86th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow such a win order to completion.

After Game 4: The San Antonio Spurs visited and defeated the Utah Jazz 91-pts-79 to take a 3-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a 10-1 series record (with an active nine-series winning streak) and a 7-4 Game 5 record (with an active three-Game 5 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Utah Jazz have a 0-9 series record and a 4-5 Game 5 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series from 1947 through 2006, teams with a 3-games-1 series lead have a 42-3 series record: The three losses were sustained by the Philadelphia 76ers (in series 198, to the Boston Celtics in 1968), the San Antonio Spurs (in series 363, to the Washington Bullets in 1979), and the Philadelphia 76ers again (in series 393, to the Boston Celtics in 1981); thus, the Boston Celtics of 1968 and 1981 and (especially, perhaps, given the comeback against San Antonio) the Washington Bullets of 1979 offer favorable precedents for the 2007 Utah Jazz.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018 in Salt Lake City for Games 3-4, the Utah Jazz hosted and handily defeated the San Antonio Spurs 109-pts-83, thereby narrowing the San Antonio series 1018 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 14-2 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 8-8. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-10 (with the victory occurring in the last such series - series 1012 over the Houston Rockets in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 4 record of 3-8. Having lost series 1018 Games 1-2, the Utah Jazz won Game 3 by 26 points. That 26-point victory margin ties for the fourth-largest Game 3 victory margin by an NBA team which had lost Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 NBA playoff series (the largest victory margin in that instance: 34 points, by the Phoenix Suns over the Portland Trailblazers in series 571 - Phoenix would go on to lose that 1990 NBA Semifinals series in six games; however, NBA teams that lose Games 1-2 but win Game 3 by 26+ points have a 2-2 series record coming into the 2007 NBA Semifinals).

After Game 2: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 105-pts-96 to take a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 13-1 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 6-8. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-8 (but with the win occurring in Utah's last such series - series 1012 over the Houston Rockets in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 3 record of 8-1. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series from 1947 through 2006, teams leading 2-games-nil such as San Antonio had a 55-2 series record. The two losses were sustained by the New York Knickerbockers, to the second incarnation of the Baltimore Bullets in 1971 (series 243), and to the Chicago Bulls in 1993 (series 645). The 1971 Bullets and the 1993 Bulls thus set a favorable precedent for the 2007 Jazz.

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 108-pts-100 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 16-4 and a Game 2 record of 14-6. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-9 (but with the win occurring in Utah's last such series - series 1012 over the Houston Rockets in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round) and a Game 2 record of 1-9 with an active eight-Game 2 losing streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, San Antonio finished seven games ahead of Utah. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season games, they have posted a 17-3 (.850) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1018 is the 22nd best-of-7 playoff series for Utah, and the 35th for San Antonio. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Utah has a 9-12 series record, a 2-3 Semifinals-round series record, and an 11-10 Game 1 record, while San Antonio has a 20-14 series record, a 3-5 Semifinals-round record, and a 20-14 Game 1 record. Series 1018 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Utah and San Antonio: Utah won the previous two (series 716 [in the 1996 NBA Quarterfinals round] and series 765 [in the 1998 NBA Quarterfinals round]).