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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2007 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1017.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 53-29, Cleveland 50-32
Game 1 on Monday, 21 May: Cleveland loses at Detroit, 79-pts-76
Game 2 on Thursday, 24 May: Cleveland loses at Detroit, 79-pts-76
Game 3 on Sunday, 27 May: Detroit loses at Cleveland, 88-pts-82
Game 4 on Tuesday, 29 May: Detroit loses at Cleveland, 91-pts-87
Game 5 on Thursday, 31 May: Cleveland wins at Detroit, 109-pts-107 (2OT)
Game 6 on Saturday, 2 June: Detroit loses at Cleveland, 98-pts-82

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Cleveland Cavaliers hosted and defeated the Detroit Pistons 98-pts-82 for a 4-games-2 win of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017. Cleveland thus improves its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 6-4 overall and 1-2 in the NBA Semifinals. Detroit sees its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 23-14 overall and 5-7 in the NBA Semifinals. The victorious Cleveland Cavaliers posted a series 1017 win order of LLWWWW: Series 1017 thus becomes the second NBA Semifinals series, the seventh NBA series (all rounds), and the 31st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. The series 1017 win by Cleveland snaps an eleven-series winning streak by the Detroit Pistons upon having led a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil. In best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series, the Cleveland Cavaliers become only the third NBA team (in 43 tries) to lose Games 1-2 on the road but rally to win the series.

After Game 5: In the first double-overtime NBA Semifinals game since 1988, the Cleveland Cavaliers visited and defeated the Detroit Pistons 109-pts-107 to take a 3-games-2 lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Detroit Pistons have a series record of 4-8 and a Game 6 record of 7-5. The win/site order of series 1017 thus far is LLWWW @ VVHHV: The last best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series to follow this win/site order through five games was series 980, which, ironically, pitted the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Detroit Pistons in the 2006 NBA Quarterfinals round. Detroit won Games 6-7 of series 980. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series, teams that lose Games 1-2 and win Games 3-5 have a 1-2 series record: In series 364, the Phoenix Suns lost Games 6-7 to the Seattle Supersonics in 1979; in series 645, the Chicago Bulls won Game 6 and the series against the New York Knickerbockers in 1993; in series 670, the Indiana Pacers lost Games 6-7 to the Knicks in 1994.

After Game 4: The Cleveland Cavaliers hosted and defeated the Detroit Pistons 91-pts-87 to even best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017 at 2-games-all. When tied two-games-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Detroit Pistons have a series record of 10-7 and a Game 5 record of 8-9, while the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 5 record of 4-2. With the Game 4 victory, the Cleveland Cavaliers improve their Game 4 record upon trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1 to a perfect 5-0; that 5-0 Game 4 record in that situation is an MLB/NBA/NHL best (tied for second place with 3-0 Game 4 records in that situation are the second incarnation of the NBA Baltimore Bullets, the NBA Buffalo Braves, the NHL Hartford Whalers, and the MLB San Francisco Giants). In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series from 1947 through 2006, teams such as Detroit which win Games 1-2 and lose Games 3-4 irrespective of site have a 16-2 series record and a 15-3 Game 5 record.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017 in Ohio for Games 3-4, the Cleveland Cavaliers hosted and bested the Detroit Pistons 88-pts-82, thus halving the Detroit series 1017 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Pistons have a 14-1 series record (with an active 14-series winning streak) and an 8-7 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 1-3 series record and a perfect 4-0 Game 4 record. The home team has now won the first three games in both 2007 NBA Semifinals series (series 1017 and 1018), thus marking the first time for this home team achievement since 1994 and only the sixth time in the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series since 1947.

After Game 2: In a nearly perfect example of déjà vu, the Detroit Pistons once again hosted and once again defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 79-pts-76, thereby taking a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Pistons have a perfect 11-0 series record and a 4-7 Game 3 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 0-3 series record and a 1-2 Game 3 record. Series 1017 becomes the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series (and the 21st best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series overall) in which a team won Games 1-2 by identical scores. In the previous twenty such series, the team winning Games 1-2 posted a 19-1 series record. The Detroit Pistons trailed by twelve points at halftime of series 1017 Game 2: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through the 2007 NBA Quarterfinals, teams trailing by twelve points after the first half of play had a game record of 9-63 (.125). In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series from 1947 through 2006, teams leading 2-games-nil such as San Antonio (in the other 2007 NBA Semifinals series) and Detroit had a 55-2 series record. The two losses were sustained by the New York Knickerbockers, to the second incarnation of the Baltimore Bullets in 1971 (series 243), and to the Chicago Bulls in 1993 (series 645). The 1971 Bullets and the 1993 Bulls thus set a favorable precedent for the 2007 Utah Jazz (in the other 2007 NBA Semifinals series) and for the 2007 Cavaliers.

After Game 1: The Detroit Pistons hosted and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 79-pts-76 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Pistons have a 20-3 series record (with an active eleven-series winning streak) and a 11-12 Game 2 record (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 1-4 series record (with an active four series losing streak) and a 2-3 Game 2 record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, the Detroit Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted an 11-13 (.458) best-of-7 series record against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1017 is the tenth best-of-7 playoff series for Cleveland, and the 37th for Detroit. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Cleveland has a 5-4 series record, a 0-2 Semifinals-round series record, and a 4-5 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 23-13 series record, a 5-6 Semifinals-round record, and a 23-13 Game 1 record. Series 1017 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons: Detroit won the previous series (series 980, in the 2006 NBA Quarterfinals).