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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2006 NHL Finals round - Series 971.
Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2005-06 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 52-22-8=112pts, Edmonton 41-28-13=95pts
Game 1 on Monday, 05 June: Edmonton loses at Carolina, 5-goals-4
Game 2 on Wednesday, 07 June: Edmonton loses at Carolina, 5-goals-nil
Game 3 on Saturday, 10 June: Carolina loses at Edmonton, 2-goals-1
Game 4 on Monday, 12 June: Carolina wins at Edmonton, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Wednesday, 14 June: Edmonton wins at Carolina, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 6 on Saturday, 17 June: Carolina loses at Edmonton, 4-goals-nil
Game 7 on Monday, 19 June: Edmonton loses at Carolina, 3-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-goals-1 to win 2006 NHL Finals (best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971) Game 7 and the Stanley Cup. The NHL championship is the first for the Carolina Hurricanes. With the series 971 win, the Carolina Hurricanes improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 7-3, while that for the Edmonton Oilers falls to 29-13. The win order for the victorious Carolina Hurricanes was WWLWLLW. Series 971 thus becomes the second NHL Finals series, the third NHL series (all rounds), and the tenth MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order. The only other NHL Finals series to follow this win order was series 490, in which the Edmonton Oilers won the 1987 NHL Finals. MLB/NBA/NHL home teams in Finals Game 7 are now on an eighteen-game winning streak, begun in series 411 (the 1982 World Series) by the MLB St. Louis Cardinals and now continued by the Carolina Hurricanes. In best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7s, home teams have now scored the first goal of the game in the last five such games, and in nine of the last ten such games. In the nine NHL Finals Game 7s in which the home team tallied first, the home team also scored the second goal of the game as well.

After Game 6: Hosting the Carolina Hurricanes, the Edmonton Oilers won 2006 NHL Finals Game 6 by a 4-goals-nil shutout to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 1-0 series record, with the win coming over the Buffalo Sabres in series 969 in the 2006 NHL Semifinals. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Edmonton Oilers have a 6-2 series record with a four-series winning streak and a three-series road Game 7 winning streak. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2006 NHL Semifinals, home teams have a Game 7 record of 74-44 (.627) in all rounds and 11-2 (.846) in the Finals. Home teams in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round Game 7s are on a current 17-game winning streak, as the last home team to lose a Finals Game 7 was the Baltimore Orioles in series 366 (the 1979 MLB World Series) against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The series 971 win/site order for the Carolina Hurricanes has been WWLWLL @ HHVVHV. In the NHL Finals, only one series winner has had a win/site order of WWLWLLW @ HHVVHVH: The 1987 Edmonton Oilers, in series 490. Thus, the 1987 Edmonton Oilers offer a favorable (though ironic) precedent for the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes . . . against the 2006 Edmonton Oilers.

After Game 5: The Edmonton Oilers scored 3:31 into the first overtime period to defeat the Hurricanes in Carolina 4-goals-3. Carolina now leads best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971 (the 2006 NHL Finals), 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 6 record of 4-1 (the loss occurred in series 969 vs. Buffalo in the 2006 NHL Semifinals). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 2-4. Edmonton opened the scoring 0:16 into the first period - the goal was the fastest opening goal in best-of-7 NHL Finals Game 5 history, and the fourth fastest opening goal in best-of-7 NHL Finals history.

After Game 4: Notching the first road win in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971, the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Oilers in Edmonton 2-goals-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in the 2006 NHL Finals. The Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-0 series record when leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1. The Edmonton Oilers have a 2-5 series record when trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, when a team (such as Carolina) leads an NHL Finals series 3-games-1, its series record is 26-1 with a 25-series winning streak. The only loss was incurred by the Detroit Red Wings in the 1942 NHL Finals (series 42), which held a 3-games-nil lead over the Toronto Maple Leafs but lost the last four games of the series to lose the series and the 1942 NHL championship.

After Game 3: The Edmonton Oilers hosted and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-goals-1 to cut the Carolina lead to 2-games-1 in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-1 series record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Edmonton Oilers have a 4-7 series record. In series 971 Game 3, the Edmonton Oilers scored the first goal of the game 2:31 into the game, and held that lead for 46:38. This one-goal home-team lead for 46:38 is the second-longest one-goal home-team lead in the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals-round games (the longest was 56:44, in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 114 Game 4, achieved by the Bruins in Boston vs. the Montreal Canadiens in the 1957 NHL Finals). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series, teams leading 2-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Game 3 on the road (such as Carolina in the 2006 Finals) have a 25-1 series record with a 13-series winning streak. In terms of losing Games 1-2 on the road and winning Game 3 at home by one goal, the Edmonton Oilers in series 971 are following the exact pattern they followed in series 967, when they defeated the San Jose Sharks in the 2006 Quarterfinals earlier this playoff season.

After Game 2: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and shut out the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-nil to take a 2-games-nil series lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971 (the 2006 NHL Stanley Cup Finals). When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-0 series record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a 1-6 series record (but won their last such series - series 967 - over the San Jose Sharks in the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals). Series 971 Game 2 is tied for the second-most lopsided shutout by a home team in best-of-7 NHL Finals history: In series 62 Game 1, the Montreal Canadiens hosted and shut out the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-goals-nil in the 1947 NHL Finals; in series 168 Game 5, the Canadiens hosted and blanked the Chicago Blackhawks 6-goals-nil in the 1965 NHL Finals; in series 837 Game 1, the Colorado Avalanche whitewashed the New Jersey Devils 5-goals-nil in Colorado in the 2001 NHL Finals. The ten goals by Carolina in Games 1-2 are the most in the first two games of an NHL Finals series since 1996, when the Colorado Avalanche potted 11 goals in Finals Games 1-2 against the Florida Panthers. Ironically, the last team to score exactly ten goals in Games 1-2 of an NHL Finals series was ... the Edmonton Oilers, in 1990. In best-of-7 NHL Finals series since 1939, teams (such as Carolina) winning Games 1-2 at home have a 28-1 (.966) series record; the sole loss was recorded in series 238, in which the Chicago Blackhawks won Games 1-2 of the 1971 NHL Finals on home ice, but lost the series anyway to the Montreal Canadiens in seven games.

After Game 1: Scoring the game-winning goal with only 32 seconds left in regulation, the Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-4 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971 (the 2006 NHL Stanley Cup Finals). When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 8-10. The Carolina Hurricanes trailed Edmonton by three goals as late as 37:16 into the game. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, home teams down three goals 37:16 into the game had a game record of 4-105 (.037). The four home teams that won in that situation: the Montreal Canadiens (over the Chicago Blackhawks in series 50 Game 4 - in the 1944 NHL Finals); the St. Louis Blues (over the Calgary Flames in series 464 Game 6 - in the 1986 NHL Semifinals); the Edmonton Oilers (over the Dallas Stars in series 728 Game 3 - in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round); the Los Angeles Kings (over the Detroit Red Wings in series 828 Game 4 - in the 2001 NHL Preliminary round).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2005-06 regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes finished 17 points ahead of the Edmonton Oilers. From 1939 through the 2006 NHL Semifinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 NHL playoff series opponents by 17 regular-season points, they have posted a 9-2 (.818) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 971 is the 42nd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Edmonton Oilers, and the tenth for the Carolina Hurricanes. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Edmonton Oilers have a 29-12 series record, a 5-1 Finals-round series record, and a 23-18 Game 1 record, while the Carolina Hurricanes have a 6-3 series record, a 0-1 Finals-round record, and a 4-5 Game 1 record. Series 971 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes.