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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2006 NHL Preliminary round - Series 958.
Montreal Canadiens vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2005-06 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 52-22-8=112pts, Montreal 42-31-9=93pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 22 April: Montreal wins at Carolina, 6-goals-1
Game 2 on Monday, 24 April: Montreal wins at Carolina, 6-goals-5 (2OT)
Game 3 on Wednesday, 26 April: Carolina wins at Montreal, 2-goals-1 (OT)
Game 4 on Friday, 28 April: Carolina wins at Montreal, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Sunday, 30 April: Montreal loses at Carolina, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Tuesday, 02 May: Carolina wins at Montreal, 2-goals-1 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-goals-1 in the first overtime period, thereby winning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958, 4-games-2. The series 958 win improves the Carolina best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 4-3; that for the Montreal Canadiens falls to 71-33. The win order for the victorious Carolina Hurricanes was LLWWWW. Series 958 thus becomes the eighth NHL Preliminary-round series, the 19th NHL series (all rounds), and the 28th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order.

After Game 5: With the first win on home ice in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958, the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-goals-1 to take a 3-games-2 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Carolina Hurricanes have a perfect series record of 3-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 5-18, though the Canadiens won their last such series (series 907 vs. Boston, in the 2004 NHL Preliminary round) to break a ten-series losing streak in that situation.

After Game 4: Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958 has become only the 30th such series in which the road team won each of the first four games, as the Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2. Series 958 is now tied at 2-games-all. When tied in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-all, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-1 series record. When tied in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-all, the Montreal Canadiens have a 23-16 series record, but, again, lost the last such series (series 856) to none other than the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 through Fall 2005, when the road team wins each of the first four games, the team that played Game 1 at home has a 19-10 (.655) series record.

After Game 3: Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958 has become only the 54th such series in which the road team won each of the first three games, as the Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-goals-1 in overtime. Montreal now leads the series 2-games-1. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 1-1 series record. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a 36-8 series record, but lost the last such series (series 856) to none other than the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 through Fall 2005, when the road team wins each of the first three games, the team that played Game 1 at home has a 23-30 (.434) series record.

After Game 3: Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958 has become only the 54th such series in which the road team won all of the first three games, as the Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-goals-1 in overtime. Montreal now leads the series 2-games-1. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 1-1 series record. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a 36-8 series record, but lost the last such series (series 856) to none other than the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 through Fall 2005, when the road team wins each of the first three games, the team that played Game 1 at home has a 23-30 (.434) series record.

After Game 2: The Montreal Canadiens visited and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 6-goals-5 in the second overtime period, thus taking a 2-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a 47-3 series record; when trailing 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 0-1 series record. Despite Montreal's 47-3 series record when leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, one of the Canadiens' three series losses occurred in their last such series (to the New York Rangers in series 700, in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, only ten times had the road team tallied the first three goals only to have the home team score the next four: In those ten games, the home team proceeded to win each and every time. On 24 April 2006, however, not only the Montreal Canadiens but also the Colorado Avalanche secured road wins in this situation. In series 958 Game 2, Montreal scored the first three goals of the game in Carolina, but Carolina rallied for the next four goals ... only to have Montreal eventually win the game. In series 962 Game 2, Colorado scored the first three goals of the game in Dallas, but the Stars rallied for the next four goals ... only to have Colorado eventually win the game.

After Game 1: The Montreal Canadiens visited and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 6-goals-1, thus taking a 1-game-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 958 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a 56-8 series record; when trailing 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 1-2 series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2005-06 regular season, Carolina finished 19 points ahead of Montreal. From 1939 through the 2005 MLB Finals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 19 regular-season points, they have posted a 2-8 (.200) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 958 is the 104th best-of-7 playoff series for Montreal, and the seventh for Carolina. In best-of-7 playoff series, Montreal has a 71-32 series record, a 10-3 Preliminary-round series record, and a 64-39 Game 1 record, while Carolina has a 3-3 series record, a 1-2 Preliminary-round record, and a 3-3 Game 1 record. Series 958 is the second best-of-7 meeting between Montreal and Carolina; in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 856, Carolina defeated Montreal in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals en route to a berth in the 2002 NHL Finals (but a playoff drought since). In series 856 Game 4, the Canadiens led Carolina in Montreal three-goals-nil after two periods, but the Hurricanes tied the game in the final minute of regulation and won it in overtime for a 2-games-all series 856 tie; Carolina then won Games 5-6 for a 4-games-2 series 856 win.