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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played on road
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2006 MLB Semifinals round - Series 987.
Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics

Schedule and 2006 Results
Regular Season Records: Oakland 93-69, Detroit 95-67
Game 1 on Tuesday, 10 October: Detroit wins at Oakland, 5-runs-1
Game 2 on Wednesday, 11 October: Detroit wins at Oakland, 8-runs-5
Game 3 on Friday, 13 October: Oakland loses at Detroit, 3-runs-nil
Game 4 on Saturday, 14 October: Oakland loses at Detroit, 6-runs-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: Trailing the Oakland Athletics by three runs as late as the bottom of the fifth inning, the Tigers in Detroit rallied to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 987 Game 4 at 3-runs-all in the fifth and sixth innings before winning the game 6-runs-3 with three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. In the 796 best-of-7 MLB playoff games prior to this one, home teams trailing by three runs after 4.5 innings had a game record of only 12-43 (.218). The Detroit Tigers thus complete a four-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics in series 987. The four-game sweep is the first ever for the Detroit Tigers, and the second suffered by the Oakland Athletics (the first was in series 575 -- the 1990 MLB Finals or World Series vs. the Cincinnati Reds). Series 987 represents the 250th case in which an MLB/NBA/NHL team leading a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-nil went on to win the series (thrice have such teams failed to win). The four-game sweep is the fourth in best-of-7 MLB Semifinals history, the 23rd in best-of-7 MLB playoff history (all rounds), and the 165th in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff history (all rounds). During series 987, the Oakland Athletics in Games 3-4 were held to only three runs in Detroit. Those are the fewest runs allowed by a home team in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series since series 696, when the Atlanta Braves held the Cincinnati Reds to two runs in Atlanta during their 1995 MLB Semifinals series (National League Championship Series), which Atlanta swept.

After Game 3: The Detroit Tigers hosted and defeated the Oakland Athletics 3-runs-nil in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 987 Game 3 to take a 3-games-nil series lead. The Detroit Tigers thus take a 3-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the first time. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil, the Oakland Athletics have a series record of 0-1, with the sole loss occurring in series 575 (in the 1990 MLB Finals or World Series, to the Cincinnati Reds). Teams up 3-games-nil in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series have a 3-3 Game 4 record with an active three-Game 4 losing streak. Among the three Game 4 winners in this situation are the 1988 and 1990 Oakland Athletics, whom the 2006 Detroit Tigers now seek to emulate against no less than the 2006 edition of those Oakland Athletics. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams winning Games 1-2 on the road and Game 3 at home have a 50-1 series record. The one team to lose in this situation was the NHL Detroit Red Wings in series 42 (the 1942 NHL Finals), as the Toronto Maple Leafs fell behind 3-games-nil in series 42 but rallied to win four straight and thus become the first MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount a 3-games-nil best-of-7 playoff series deficit and emerge victorious from that series. The 2006 Oakland Athletics thus hope to force the 2006 Detroit Tigers down the same hapless path followed by the 1942 Detroit Red Wings. Historical victory probabilities have Oakland, however, emerging haplessly from series 987. Thrice before had MLB teams in best-of-7 playoff series taken 3-games-nil series leads with a Game 3 shutout: In each of those three previous series, the Game 3 winner won by a 1-run-nil score. Detroit thus becomes the first MLB team to take a 3-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series via Game 3 shutout and score multiple runs in the process.

After Game 2: By an 8-runs-5 score, the Detroit Tigers once again defeated the Athletics in Oakland, thereby taking a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 987 (the 2006 American League Championship Series). For the first time ever, the Detroit Tigers lead a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, the Oakland Athletics have a series record of 0-2, having lost series 525 (the 1988 MLB Finals) and series 575 (the 1990 MLB Finals) under such circumstances. Detroit has won series 987 Games 1-2 by a combined victory margin of seven runs. For teams taking a 2-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, the last time that the winning team had a combined victory margin of greater than seven runs was series 624, in which the Atlanta Braves took a 2-games-nil lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates by a combined 12-run victory margin in the 1992 National League Championship Series. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals series, teams taking a 2-games-nil lead on the road (such as Detroit) have a 27-1 series record with an active 26-series winning streak that began in Spring 1947; the sole defeat was sustained in series 53, in which the Boston Bruins took a 2-games-nil lead in Detroit but lost in seven games to the Detroit Red Wings in their 1945 NHL Semifinals series. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, teams taking a 2-games-nil lead on the road have an 8-0 series record; ironically, the first two of these eight winners were the Oakland Athletics (in series 523, the 1988 American League Championship Series) ... and the Oakland Athletics (in series 573, the 1990 American League Championship Series).

After Game 1: The Detroit Tigers visited and defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-runs-1 to take a 1-game-nil series lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 987. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Tigers have a series record of 1-1, having lost series 37 (the 1940 MLB Finals or World Series) and won series 441 (the 1984 World Series). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oakland Athletics have a series record of 0-2, having lost series 525 (the 1988 MLB Finals or World Series) and 575 (the 1990 World Series). In the history of best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series from 1985 through 2005, inclusive, teams winning Game 1 on the road by four or more runs had a 4-1 series record ... and are on an active four-series winning streak. It is ironic that one of those four winners was the 1990 Oakland Athletics, whose MLB Semifinals victory occurred in series 573 over the Boston Red Sox, and whose 2006 counterparts have just fallen behind 1-game-nil to the Detroit Tigers.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006 regular season, the Oakland Athletics finished two games behind the Detroit Tigers. From 1905 through the 2005 MLB Finals, when MLB teams such as Detroit led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a 3-5 (.375) best-of-7 series record in those MLB Semifinals and Finals series against those opponents. Only once before in a best-of-7 format MLB Semifinals series had one team a two-game regular season advantage over its opponent: In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 624 (the 1992 National League Championship Series), the Atlanta Braves finished two games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1992 regular season and defeated Pittsburgh in seven games in series 624. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 987 is the eleventh best-of-7 playoff series for the Detroit Tigers, and the eleventh for the Oakland Athletics. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Detroit Tigers have a 4-6 series record, a 0-1 Semifinals-round series record, and a 2-8 Game 1 record, while the Oakland Athletics have a 7-3 series record, a 3-1 Semifinals-round record, and an 8-2 Game 1 record. Series 987 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics. The Detroit Tigers last appeared in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series in 1987; the Oakland Athletics last appeared in such a series in 1992.