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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2005 NBA Preliminary round - Series 944.
Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs

Schedule and 2004-05 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 59-23, Denver 49-33
Game 1 on Sunday, 24 April: Denver wins at San Antonio, 93-pts-87
Game 2 on Wednesday, 27 April: Denver loses at San Antonio, 104-pts-76
Game 3 on Saturday, 30 April: San Antonio wins at Denver, 86-pts-78
Game 4 on Monday, 02 May: San Antonio wins at Denver, 126-pts-115 (OT)
Game 5 on Wednesday, 04 May: Denver loses at San Antonio, 99-pts-89

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Denver Nuggets 99-pts-89 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 944 Game 5, thus achieving a 4-games-1 victory in series 944. The series 944 win boosts the San Antonio NBA best-of-7 playoff series record to 14-13 overall and 3-0 in the Preliminary round. The series 944 loss drops the Denver NBA best-of-7 playoff series record to 2-9 (with an active six-series losing streak) overall and 0-2 in the Preliminary round. Denver has now lost twice to San Antonio in best-of-7 NBA playoff series (series 422, 944). The win order for the victorious San Antonio Spurs was LWWWW: Series 944 is the first best-of-7 NBA Preliminary-round playoff series, the 12th best-of-7 NBA playoff series (all rounds), and the 44th best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow that win order.

After Game 4: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 944 in Denver for Games 3 and 4, the visiting San Antonio Spurs defeated the Nuggets 126-pts-115 in overtime of Game 4. San Antonio thereby takes a 3-games-1 series 944 lead. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 7-1 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 4-4. When trailing an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the Denver Nuggets have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 5 record of 3-3. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series through and including 2004, teams trailing 3-games-1 at a site order of VVHH (such as Denver) have a 1-97 (.010) series record. The sole victor in that situation: The Houston Rockets, which defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-games-3 in series 691 -- the 1995 NBA Quarterfinals. Those 1995 Houston Rockets thus provide the 2005 Denver Nuggets with a favorable precedent.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 944 in Denver for Games 3 and 4, the visiting San Antonio Spurs defeated the Nuggets in Denver 86-pts-78 in Game 3 of their series. San Antonio thereby takes a 2-games-1 series 944 lead. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 8-2 and a Game 4 record of 6-4 (with an active two-Game-4 losing streak). When trailing an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Denver Nuggets have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 4 record of 1-4. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams winning Game 1 on the road, losing Game 2 on the road, and losing Game 3 at home (Denver) had a 3-16 series record. The three winners were the Detroit Pistons (in series 592 in the 1991 Quarterfinals vs. the Boston Celtics), the Los Angeles Lakers (in series 868 in the 2002 Semifinals vs. the Sacramento Kings), and the Lakers again (in series 895 in the 2003 Preliminary vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves). These three teams thus set a favorable precedent for the 2005 Denver Nuggets.

After Game 2: Evening MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 944 at 1-game-all, the Spurs in San Antonio dealt Denver a 104-pts-76 Game 2 defeat. The score at halftime was 63-pts-32 in favor of San Antonio: The Spurs' 31-point halftime lead was the third-largest ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game, behind only the 1970 Milwaukee Bucks (up 36 points at the half in Philadelphia vs. the 76ers in series 224 Game 3) and the 1971 Bucks (up 34 in Milwaukee vs. the San Francisco Warriors in series 241 Game 5). When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have a 4-6 series record (with a current three-series winning streak) and a 5-5 Game 3 record (with a current three-Game-3 winning streak), while the Denver Nuggets have a perfect 0-4 series record and a 1-3 Game 3 record.

After Game 1: The Denver Nuggets visited and defeated the San Antonio Spurs by a score of 93-pts-87, thus taking a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 944. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, Denver has (deuces wild) a 2-2 series record and a 2-2 Game 2 record. When trailing such a series 1-game-nil, San Antonio has a 2-10 series record (but an active two-series winning streak) and a 6-6 Game 2 record. Losing a best-of-7 playoff series Game 1 at home to a far-inferior regular-season opponent is not unprecedented for San Antonio: Whereas the 2004-05 Denver Nuggets finished ten games behind the Spurs, the 2002-03 Phoenix Suns finished sixteen games behind San Antonio. Phoenix won Game 1 of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 892 in San Antonio (in the 2003 NBA Preliminary round), but San Antonio won the series in six games ... and proceeded to win the 2003 NBA championship.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2004-05 regular season, San Antonio finished ten games ahead of Denver. From 1947 through 2004, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by ten regular-season games, they have posted a 14-3 (.824) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 944 is the 11th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Denver, and the 27th for San Antonio. In best-of-7 playoff series, Denver has a 2-8 series record (with an active five-series losing streak), an 0-1 Preliminary-round series record, and a 4-6 Game 1 record, while San Antonio has a lucky 13-13 series record, a 2-0 Preliminary-round record, and a 14-12 Game 1 record. Series 944 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff meeting between Denver and San Antonio; Denver lost to San Antonio in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 422 (in the 1983 NBA Quarterfinals).