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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2005 NBA Preliminary round - Series 940.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons

Schedule and 2004-05 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 54-28, Philadelphia 43-39
Game 1 on Saturday, 23 April: Philadelphia loses at Detroit, 106-pts-85
Game 2 on Tuesday, 26 April: Philadelphia loses at Detroit, 99-pts-84
Game 3 on Friday, 29 April: Detroit loses at Philadelphia, 115-pts-104
Game 4 on Sunday, 01 May: Detroit wins at Philadelphia, 97-pts-92 (OT)
Game 5 on Tuesday, 03 May: Philadelphia loses at Detroit, 88-pts-78

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Detroit Pistons hosted and defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 88-pts-78 in Game 5 of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 940, thus capturing a 4-games-1 series 940 victory. Detroit thus improves its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 17-11 overall and 3-0 in the Preliminary round. Philadelphia sees its best-of-7 NBA playoff series records fall to 18-21 overall and 1-1 in the Preliminary round. Detroit now owns perfect 7-0 Game 5 and 7-0 series records when leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1; Philadelphia now has a 0-13 series record when trailing 3-games-1. The win order for series 940 is WWLWW: Series 940 thus becomes the fifth NBA Preliminary round series, the 36th NBA series (all rounds), and the 80th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow such a win order.

After Game 4: It required one overtime period, but the Detroit Pistons visited and defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 97-pts-92 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 940 Game 4. Detroit thus takes a 3-games-1 series 940 lead. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the Detroit Pistons have a perfect 6-0 series record and a perfect 6-0 Game 5 record. When trailing an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the Philadelphia 76ers have a perfect 0-12 series record and a 5-7 Game 5 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams trailing 3-games-1 at a site order of VVHH (such as Philadelphia) have a 1-97 (.010) series record. The sole victor in that situation: The Houston Rockets, which defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-games-3 in series 691 -- the 1995 NBA Quarterfinals. Those 1995 Houston Rockets eventually won the NBA championship that year, thus providing the 2005 Philadelphia 76ers with a favorable precedent for both their current plight and for the playoffs in general.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 940 having made the shift to Philadelphia, the 76ers on their home court defeated the Detroit Pistons 115-pts-104, thus narrowing the Detroit series 940 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Pistons have a series record of 11-1 (with an active eleven-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 6-6. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia 76ers have a series record of 2-12 and a Game 4 record of 5-9. Philadelphia's margin of victory in Game 3 was 11 points. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2004, inclusive, when a team lost Games 1 and 2 on the road but won Game 3 at home by a double-digit victory margin, its series record was 5-35 (.125).

After Game 2: Taking a 2-games-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 940 lead, the Pistons in Detroit once again defeated the Philadelphia 76ers, 99-pts-84. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Detroit Pistons have a perfect series record of 6-0 and a Game 3 record of 2-4 (with a current 4-Game-3 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Philadelphia 76ers have a perfect series record of 0-9 and a Game 3 record of 5-4. Detroit has now won Game 1 by 21 points and Game 2 by 15 points. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2004, inclusive, twenty teams have won Games 1 and 2 on their home court by victory margins of 15 points or more in each game. Those twenty teams have a series record of 19-1. In series 691 (in the 1995 Quarterfinals), the Phoenix Suns won Game 1 by 22 points and Game 2 by 24 points in Phoenix, and eventually took a 3-games-1 lead over the Houston Rockets, but the eventual 1995 NBA champions won series 691 in seven games. Those 1995 Houston Rockets thus set the sole favorable precedent for the 2005 Philadelphia 76ers in this situation.

After Game 1: The Detroit Pistons hosted and defeated the Philadelphia 76ers by a score of 106-pts-85, thus taking a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 940. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, Detroit has a 13-3 series record (with an active four-series winning streak) and a 6-10 Game 2 record. When trailing such a series 1-game-nil, Philadelphia has a 3-15 series record and a 9-9 Game 2 record. Detroit trailed Philadelphia by 12 points after the first quarter. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams trailing by 12 or more points after the first quarter had a game record of only 33-179 (.156) through 2004.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2004-05 regular season, Detroit finished 11 games ahead of Philadelphia. From 1947 through 2004, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 11 regular-season games, they have posted a 13-4 (.765) best-of-7 series record (with an active six-series winning streak) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 940 is the 39th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Philadelphia, and the 28th for Detroit. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has an 18-20 series record, a 1-0 Preliminary-round series record, and a 20-18 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 16-11 series record, a 2-0 Preliminary-round record, and a 16-11 Game 1 record. Series 940 is the second best-of-7 meeting between Philadelphia and Detroit, with Detroit owning the sole head-to-head series victory from best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 896 (in the 2003 NBA Quarterfinals).