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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2004 NHL Semifinals round - Series 918.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2004 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 46-22-8-6=106pts, Philadelphia 40-21-15-6=101pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 08 May: Philadelphia loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-1
Game 2 on Monday, 10 May: Philadelphia wins at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-2
Game 3 on Thursday, 13 May: Tampa Bay wins at Philadelphia, 4-goals-1
Game 4 on Saturday, 15 May: Tampa Bay loses at Philadelphia, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Tuesday, 18 May: Philadelphia loses at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-2
Game 6 on Thursday, 20 May: Tampa Bay loses at Philadelphia, 5-goals-4 (OT)
Game 7 on Saturday, 22 May: Philadelphia loses at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 2-goals-1 to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 Game 7 and, thus, series 918. The series victory improves Tampa Bay's best-of-7 NHL playoff series records to 4-2 (all rounds) and 1-0 (Semifinals); the series loss lowers Philadelphia's best-of-7 NHL playoff series records to 31-24 (all rounds) and 7-7 (Semifinals). The win order for the victorious team in series 918 was WLWLWLW: Series 918 thus becomes the second NHL Semifinals series, the fifth NHL series (all rounds), and the 19th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this interesting "alternating win-loss" win order.

After Game 6: The Philadelphia Flyers hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-4 with a goal 18:18 into the first overtime period in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 Game 6. The visiting Lightning led by one goal late into the third period, until Philadelphia tied the game with 1:49 left in regulation. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series games from 1939 through 2003, when the road team led by one goal with 1:50 left in regulation, its game record was 339-23 (.936). Series 918 Game 7 will be the first Game 7 for Tampa Bay. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Philadelphia Flyers have an overall Game 7 record of 6-5, and a road Game 7 record of 1-2 (all rounds).

After Game 5: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 back in Florida for Game 5, the host Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-goals-2 to take a 3-games-2 series 918 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-0 series record (all rounds) and a 1-0 Game 6 record (courtesy of series 875, which Tampa Bay won from the Washington Capitals in the 2003 NHL Preliminary round). When trailing 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 1-10 series record (all rounds, with an active six-series losing streak) and a 4-7 Game 6 record (with an active six-Game 6 losing streak). When trailing 3-games-2 in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Flyers' sole series victory occurred in series 535, in which they defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1989 NHL Quarterfinals.

After Game 4: Hosting best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 Game 4, the Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to even series 918 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 13-4 overall series record and a 12-5 Game 5 record, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-1 overall series record and a 1-1 Game 5 record.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 in Philadelphia for Games 3-4, the Tampa Bay Lightning took advantage of road ice, defeating the Flyers 4-goals-1 in Game 3 to take a 2-games-1 series 918 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-1 series record (all rounds) and a 1-1 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 7-15 series record (all rounds) and a 10-12 Game 4 record.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Flyers visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-goals-2 in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918 Game 2, thus tying series 918 at 1-game-all. The six goals by Philadelphia are the most by a road team in an NHL Semifinals Game 2 since series 281, in which the 1974 Chicago Blackhawks lost to the Bruins in Boston 8-goals-6. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-1 series record and a 2-0 Game 3 record, while the Philadelphia Flyers have a 13-14 series record and an 11-16 Game 3 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2004 NHL Quarterfinals round, when a team (such as Tampa Bay) wins Game 1 at home but loses Game 2 at home by four or more goals, its series record is 2-5.

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 3-goals-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 918. When leading an NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, Tampa has a 2-0 series record and a 1-1 Game 2 record; when trailing an NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, Philadelphia has an 11-15 series record and a 15-11 Game 2 record. In best-of-7 NHL playoff history from 1939 through the 2004 NHL Quarterfinals, when a team wins Game 1 at home by a 3-goals-1 score (as Tampa has), its series record is 26-7 (.788).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2003-04 regular season, Tampa Bay finished five points ahead of Philadelphia. From 1939 through the 2004 NHL Quarterfinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season points, they have posted a 20-8 (.714) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 918 is the 55th best-of-7 playoff series for Philadelphia, and the sixth for Tampa Bay. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has a 31-23 series record, a 7-6 Semifinals-round series record, and a 28-26 Game 1 record, while Tampa Bay has a 3-2 series record, a 0-0 Semifinals-round record, and a 2-3 Game 1 record. Series 918 is the second best-of-7 meeting between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay; the first was series 698 in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round, won by Philadelphia in six games.